Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 181144 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
644 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Dry, but breezy condns were noted around the FA early this am as
prominent CAA continues to usher in near-freezing to freezing temps
to Nrn AR. The 32F sfc isotherm was most recently noted over SWrn
MO, and thru the early mrng hours, portions of N/Wrn and Nrn AR wl
see the mercury fall to or below freezing.

Aloft, a prominent and pos tilted H500 trof was analyzed over the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. At the sfc pressure dipole was
evident, consisting of departing strong low pressure over
Newfoundland, and approaching Canadian high pressure in the Nrn
Plains. Gusty Nrly wnds should prevail around the FA today w/ aftn
high temps well below normal values in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Of
note today wl be the exceptionally dry airmass expected to be in
place, as afternoon minimum RH values wl lkly fall to 20 percent or
less in some locations. Dry condns and strong Nrly winds wl yield an
elevated risk for fire danger, so if you plan to do any outdoor
burning this aftn, please do so carefully, or postpone if possible.

Mon night into Tues mrng, a widespread freeze is expected as the
aforementioned sfc high pressure moves S/wrd acrs the Ozark Plateau,
and maneuvers slowly over the FA overnight. This wl provide
extremely favorable condns for widespread frost/freeze condns as
area winds should settle down, and maximum decoupling and
radiational cooling potential wl be seen in and around the center of
the sfc high.

Low temps on Mon night are expected to fall to 29-32F for most of
the state. Portions of Nrn and N/Ern AR, and the lower regions of
the AR River Valley in Wrn AR wl lkly see overnight low temps near
25-27F. Frost potential (alongside freezing condns) wl be more lkly
acrs Cntrl to Srn AR where sfc RH values and winds wl be more
favorable. As such, the area-wide Freeze Watch has now been upgraded
to a Freeze Warning (Mon Night thru Tues Mrng). For areas not
already experience freezing condns, any preparations to protect
outdoor agricultural interests should be completed today.

Thru the remainder of the day Tues, sfc high pressure wl quickly
shift Ewrd and stronger S/Wrly winds/warmer temps closer to seasonal
normals wl resume over the FA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

To begin, the region will be under the influence of weak upper
ridging. Changes will arrive as early as Thursday as a compact, but
weakening, upper shortwave trough moves across the region. On
Saturday, the upper pattern should become more quasi-zonal before
switching to the SW by late Sunday ahead of a new digging trough
over the Four Corners region.

Quiet weather is expected on Wednesday despite increasing mid/high
cloud cover associated with increasing upper level moisture. The
aforementioned approaching upper shortwave trough should trigger
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Thursday into Friday
morning. Rainfall amounts could range from about a tenth of an inch
to around half an inch. Additional PoPs chances return Sunday
afternoon over NWrn AR.

The warmest day during the period should be Wednesday ahead of the
next weather system. Temperatures are expected to climb into the
lower to mid 70s on Wednesday afternoon. On Thursday, highs should
only reach the upper 50s to mid 60s with temperatures slowly
modifying each afternoon afterwards. Lows should generally be in the
40s and 50s each morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR condns are expected thru the fcst PD w/ diminishing cloud
cover thru the day. Approaching sfc high pressure wl keep Nrly
winds elevated and gusty thru this aftn w/ sustained values of 10
to 15 kts, and gusts in excess of 20 kts. Later tonight, as the
sfc high settles over the FA, winds should settle out.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     50  31  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         56  30  63  40 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       45  29  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    53  30  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  54  32  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     54  31  62  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      53  29  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  47  28  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        49  31  62  43 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     53  31  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   52  29  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         51  28  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      50  31  61  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-103-112-113-121-123-130-203-212-213-221>223-313.

Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...72


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