Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
638
FXUS64 KLZK 280624
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
124 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.AVIATION...28/06Z TAF CYCLE

Showers/storms will continue affecting much of central/southern AR
overnight, with deteriorating conds expected as storms move
through a given TAF site. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 kts can be
expected with the stronger storms. Rainfall will slowly taper off
later this mrng, with a combo of MVFR/VFR conds expected.
Lingering showers/storms can be expected mainly over SERN AR later
in the PD as a cold front lingers in that area of the state. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 237 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are first and second period
severe storm potential. Then some lingering lighter convection on
Monday, before the entire system move out of the region and
lessens its impact on AR.

Current convection is developing over MO this afternoon with
strong to severe storms. Over AR have only seen isolated showers
this afternoon with a cap indicated in the 12z KLZK sounding
holding overall convection develop. Later tonight, this cap is
expected to break as the upper system moves through the region,
and allow plenty of convection to affect AR. Otherwise,
temperatures this afternoon were mainly in the 80s, while dew
point temperatures were in the 70s. More organized convection was
over MO and rotating around the upper ridge. Currently the main
upper lift was moving from KS to MO, while a low level jet over
eastern OK to northwest AR may develop isolated convection a bit
later.

Timing of the upper storm system appears to be late evening in
northwest AR, to midnight over more northern AR, then as the upper
lift and cold front gradually sag south, additional convection
will be seen over all of AR after midnight to Sunday morning.
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are expected, with
large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two possible. Plenty
of moisture, lift and instability will be present. Euro model
appears to be the fastest to sag convection into north AR by
midnight or a bit before, with GFS catches up with Euro
overnight, while NAM is the slowest. HRRR model runs a bit
inconsistent with latest more earlier convection into northern AR,
while previous run a bit slower. Moderate risk over northern AR
to Enhance to Slight remains over AR this afternoon, evening and
tonight.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday Night

Convection chances will ramp up quickly in the evening over
northwest to northern AR, as some lift and low level jet max moves
into the area. It will take a bit long to reach more of the
northern half and central AR as the upper dynamics move into AR
later. All forms of severe weather are possible with the storms.
The convection will last into Sunday, but severe storm threat is
forecast to lower on Sunday as dynamics weaken. Rain amounts
tonight to Sunday are expected from 1 to 2 inches with a few spots
a bit heavier to 2.5 to 3 with precip water values now up to 1.5
inches. On Sunday, the cold front gradually sags to southern AR
and focuses the convection over that region. The severe storm
threat lows as the dynamics push east of AR. A lower chance of
rain is held in the forecast over the south, Sunday night and
through Monday, before ending as the upper flow becomes parallel
to the boundary and stalls it near the AR and LA state lines.
Temperatures will cool a bit behind the cold front and lows will
be below normal while highs a bit to start, then warm into
Tuesday.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

A large area of low pressure will be over the Great Lakes to
begin the long term period with high pressure aloft over the
southeast and western U.S. This pattern will continue through
Tuesday then the upper ridge builds over Arkansas on Wednesday.
The upper ridge weakens Friday and Saturday.

The weekend cold front will be just east of the Mississippi River
Monday night and high pressure will be building over Arkansas.
Another front will move into north Arkansas Tuesday, become
stationary, and bring small chances of showers and thunderstorms
through Thursday. The front slowly moves into southern Arkansas
Friday and should wobble to the north for Saturday. Rain chances
will continue Friday and Saturday. Will have to see how this comes
together but it could be the set up for more heavy rain...or at
least prolonged rain over multiple days. Expect temperatures to run
near to slightly below normal through the long term period.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.