Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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923
FXUS64 KLZK 272305 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
605 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Some isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will become more possible
this evening into the overnight hrs...though coverage will not be
too widespread at this time. As a result...just mentioning
VCSH/VCTS and TEMPOs for this activity. This precip could caused
decreased flight rules as well...especially under the strongest
storms. Winds will eventually shift to the N/NW near the end of
this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 200 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017)

Short Term...Tonight thru Saturday night...

This morning the short term models were backing off on precip
chances across the state this afternoon and tonight. However, the
last several runs have been ramping chances back up, and this is
consistent with observed radar and satellite trends.

During the last hour visible sat imagery has been showing a line of
convective clouds developing from NE AR into central AR, and radar
is now showing returns. This is now lining up well with the latest
HRRR runs indicating a line of convection forming from roughly JBR-
LIT at 21Z. With these trends I have upped POPs in the eastern and
southern portions of the forecast area tonight versus the earlier
forecast.

The cold front itself should come thru central AR around daybreak,
and will start to usher in the cooler and drier air we have been
mentioning for several days. Front should clear southern AR by
tomorrow evening and this will bring and end to POPs. Saturday
should be dry.

Models have been inconsistent with the extent of the cooling and
drying effect for several runs, but the latest trends are dropping
temps back to the mid 80`s north, the upper 80`s central, with
readings around 90 remaining across the west and the far south.
Certainly a nice cool down for late July, and this will be
especially apparent with the lower dewpoints, although the driest
air will not arrive until the extended term.

Extended Term...Saturday night through Thursday...

Northwest flow will be in place for the weekend, providing
continued relief from the heat and at least the possibility to
usher weather systems into the region late in the period. Max
temperatures will top out in the 80s through early next week and
gradually warm back into the 90s by mid week. As of now, models
are not picking up on any rain makers until late next week.
Introduced POPs on Thursday but would expect timing and chances to
be more fine tuned in the coming days.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-
Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

Aviation...62



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