Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 202259 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
559 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
Drier and cooler air continues to filter into the state behind the
cold front that pushed south through the state today. Breezy NRLY
winds will gradually lessen this evening and into the overnight
hrs...with less than 10 kts expected by after midnight...still from
the north. Any lingering MVFR CIGs will lift...with a clearing sky
expected. VFR conditions will then be seen through the rest of the
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 232 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday
20z subjective surface analysis indicates the cold front is now
on the southeast border of the forecast area. Satellite imagery
indicates low clouds are clearing across northwest sections. Cool
conditions will occur during the first half of this period.
Radiational cooling should be optimized Friday night however, with
overnight lows expected to average 7-10 degrees below normal.
LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Model solutions rmn in good agreement today pertaining to overall
fcst pattern thru the pd. High pres wl be centered to the SE of
the FA at the start of the PD. A slow warming trend wl be ongoing
heading into next week as a S/SWLY wind flow prevails. This wl
also be enhanced as upr lvl hgts incrs ovr the Mid-South.
Heading into the Wed-Thu timeframe...model data suggests a weak upr
lvl trof wl apch the region fm the Plains. Moisture lvls still
appears minimal with this sys...so mainly looking at an incrs in
clouds. Kept small rain chcs in acrs NRN AR per going fcst.