Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 112347
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
647 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.AVIATION...
REMAINING CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT BY 01Z. AFTER THAT...MOSTLY
CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SOME PATCHY BR WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE SAT. SCT CU DEVELOPING
MID TO LATE MORNING SAT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE CONVECTION OVER PARTS
OF EASTERN AR AND ANY PULSE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. OVER THE WEEKEND...LOWER POP CHANCES WHILE TEMPS WARM TO
THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH NEAR 100 IN SPOTS. THEN THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN ENTERS THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO MID WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE REGION AND
ALSO BRINGS UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPS TO AR.

CURRENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO EASTERN AR WITH SOME
PULSING STORMS TO STRONG LEVELS...WHILE POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
FLOODING FROM JACKSON COUNTY...SOUTH TO ARKANSAS COUNTY. THIS AREA
ESPECIALLY THE BRINKLEY AREA IN MONROE COUNTY...HAVE SEEN HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS
OF WEAKENING AND IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SE. ONLY VERY ISOLATED
OTHER LIGHTER CONVECTION HAS BEEN SEEN OVER SW AR TO SOUTH AR.
THE QUASI STATIONARY WEAK FRONT WAS GENERALLY FROM SE TO NW
AR...WITH JUST A BIT DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S...WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE 70S. THE
UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HAS BUILT
INTO WESTERN AR THROUGH TODAY. TEMPS TODAY HAVE HELD FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THOSE AREAS WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE
MID 80S IN SUNNIER LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL KEPT A SLIGHT TO CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
CONVECTION BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THE ACTIVITY IN THE EAST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE ESE BY LATE EVENING. THEN DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN...WHILE LOWS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S. MODELS ARE SHOWING UPPER HEIGHTS TO BUILD AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER AR FOR THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL LOWER AND TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
ALSO APPROACH 100 DEGREES. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY...THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES BACK WEST...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AR LATE MONDAY TO TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION BACK TO AR. ALSO THE
UPPER RIDGE IS QUITE STRONG OUT WEST...THUS DEEPENING THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL REACH AR
NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS. THE LOW WEAKENS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHILE THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH ARKANSAS TUESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY
AND LESSEN RAIN CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS DISTURBANCES RIDE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THE HIGH WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  94  72  97 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         73  97  72  98 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       70  93  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  95  72  97 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  95  74  97 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     73  96  73  96 /  30  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      71  94  71  97 /  10   0  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  95  70  96 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        72  94  73  96 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     72  95  73  96 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  95  72  97 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         72  94  72  96 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      73  95  73  95 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...28




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