Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 280204 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
904 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...

A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND DRY...COOL WEATHER CONTINUING. EXPECT TEMPS
AND HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES.
OTHERWISE...HAVE JUST ADJUSTED FORECAST TRENDS FOR LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ALL UPDATES OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ABUNDANT CIRRUS ALSO
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT AND CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA.

NAM SHOWS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES
DURING THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS ISNT WIDELY SUPPORTED BY OTHER
MODELS. FOR NOW WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE
NWRN AND NORTHERN ZONES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO THE WEST WILL BUILD BACK MORE
INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY...AND AS SUCH TEMPS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK UP AGAIN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO
THE REGION. HAVE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGHS WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       61  84  65  85 /   0   0  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  88  67  90 /   0   0  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  63  89  67  91 /   0   0  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     61  90  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  89  65  90 /   0   0  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  85  65  87 /   0   0  20  30
NEWPORT AR        60  86  66  89 /   0   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   62  88  67  90 /   0   0  20  20
SEARCY AR         60  87  65  90 /   0   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      61  88  66  90 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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