Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KLZK 201637
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1137 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF CLOUDS OVER OKLAHOMA AND THESE
WILL BE MOVING INTO ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING MORE QUICKLY TODAY AND SOME TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN
THE MID 70S. INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES TO 80 IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS IN THE WEST WILL
SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SEEN IN
OKLAHOMA BUT NOTHING IN ARKANSAS SO FAR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIP WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 06Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FROM 6 TO 9
KNOTS. CEILINGS SHOULD LARGELY BE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TAFS OUT
SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT IS TRANSITING SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE
PAC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. SOME
SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE NEW MEXICO SHORTWAVE MAY SNEAK INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
IN EARNEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE NRN BRANCH WAVE
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN VICINITY OF
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA TOWARDS ARKANSAS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND FINALLY CLEAR THE
AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH...FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND THREW IN SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
IN THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS DESCRIBED
BELOW.

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...AND NO ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NECESSARY IN THAT DEPARTMENT. RAIN CHANCES LOOKED GOOD AS
WELL BUT DID SLOW DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS JUST A TAD TO COME IN
LINE WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT
NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY...THEN MOVE BACK
TO THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     77  56  75  56 /   0  20  60  60
CAMDEN AR         80  58  78  59 /  10  30  50  60
HARRISON AR       77  56  71  54 /  10  40  60  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  59  76  58 /  10  40  60  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  80  58  77  58 /  10  30  50  60
MONTICELLO AR     80  57  77  59 /   0  30  40  60
MOUNT IDA AR      78  58  74  56 /  10  40  60  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  77  56  73  54 /  10  30  60  60
NEWPORT AR        77  56  73  57 /   0  20  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     80  58  76  59 /  10  30  50  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  58  74  56 /  10  40  60  60
SEARCY AR         79  56  74  56 /   0  30  60  60
STUTTGART AR      80  57  77  58 /   0  20  50  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

51





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.