Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 290247 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
945 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH A LOT
OF HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. TOWARD DAWN...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. THIS WILL CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TEMPORARILY. AS THE MORNING WEARS ON...FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIFT. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 2500 TO 3500 FEET ARE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED...AND MAINLY CONFINED
TO WESTERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL POP UP ON FRIDAY.

WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 MPH. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
NOT A LOT OF APPRECIABLE CHANGES WILL BE FORTHCOMING THIS AFTERNOON
AS OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE. WITH ALL SHORT TERM MODELS BASICALLY ON THE SAME PAGE...A
BLEND OF FORECAST SIMULATIONS WILL BE USED.

UPPER PATTERN STILL FEATURES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ADVANCING ONLY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN WILL KEEP DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA WHILE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES THE ENTIRE AREA. SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST THAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE.

WETTEST PERIOD WILL BE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
SURGES INTO THE STATE...ACCOMPANIED BY THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. WILL TAPER OFF POPS LATE IN
PERIOD AS SYSTEM PULLS OUT. AFTER ONE MORE WARM DAY ON
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WILL
FOLLOW THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS CLOSELY.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE PROMINENT
WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER THE
ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA REGION ON MONDAY...THEN MEANDER OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH SUCH A FEATURE IN PLACE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY THOUGH HOW WIDESPREAD THEY
WILL BE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WILL LIMIT THE FORECAST TO ABOUT A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT NIGHT...THOUGH SOME NIGHTTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. TEMPERATURE
WISE...READINGS WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START
WITH MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     68  84  67  80 /  30  60  50  70
CAMDEN AR         70  86  68  80 /  30  50  50  70
HARRISON AR       65  80  64  76 /  40  60  60  70
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  84  67  80 /  30  60  50  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  85  69  82 /  30  50  50  70
MONTICELLO AR     70  86  69  82 /  20  40  40  70
MOUNT IDA AR      69  82  66  79 /  40  60  60  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  81  65  78 /  30  60  60  70
NEWPORT AR        68  85  68  81 /  30  50  50  70
PINE BLUFF AR     69  85  69  81 /  20  50  50  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  83  66  80 /  30  60  60  70
SEARCY AR         68  84  68  81 /  30  50  50  70
STUTTGART AR      69  85  69  82 /  20  50  50  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64











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