Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281536 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1030 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.Discussion...

Earlier update to fine tune forecast for pops as area of light
convection moves east southeast. Have seen mainly showers with some
thunder. This is associated with the upper lift. The cold front does
remain over AR, and generally still west of LIT near RUE, with a
drier airmass and a northwest wind shift. Short range models only
develop light convection with the front as it moves southeast across
AR, and will keep some low chances over central areas, while a bit
higher over southern AR. Some upper energy is seen in the same
models over southern AR, and will keep higher chance pops in that
region. Did lower high temperatures a few degrees today due to cloud
cover. Otherwise, any remaining rain tonight will be focused over
far southern AR, as the cold front sags to that area. Mostly cooler
and dry on Monday, except possibly far southern AR where forecast
models continue to show some energy in the mean upper west flow to
move across the area. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 657 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/
.AVIATION...28/12Z TAF CYCLE

An area of rain/embedded thunder wl cont to diminish in coverage
this mrng over central and southern AR. Gusty winds noted behind
the precip shield wl decrease by mid to late mrng as well. MVFR/
IFR conds noted over most of the area this mrng. A cold front
over NW AR wl work sloly SEWD today. Since conds have stabilized
from overnight storms, confidence regarding more storms later
today along the front is limited. Therefore, mentioned VCTS this
aftn for the south half of the FA. VFR conds wl eventually return
to most areas tngt as drier air works in behind the fnt. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 420 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday Night

Convection conts to sloly diminish in areal coverage acrs AR early
this mrng, with the stronger storms confined to mainly the southern
areas. Expect this trend to cont thru the rest of the mrng.
Meanwhile, a CDFNT was poised ovr the NW corner of the state early
this mrng. The bndry wl drop sloly thru much of the FA by tonight,
eventually stalling just SE of the state heading into Mon.

Have trended rain chcs acrs the area today into Mon based on the
expected movement of the aforementioned front. As we head into Mon
and Mon night, POPS wl be confined to the SE part of AR, closer to
the stalled out front. Cannot rule out a few strong/svr storms this
aftn ovr SE AR, but the potential wl be dependent on the atmosphere
being able to recover fm the ongoing activity.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday

Much of the period wl be somewhat unsettled, although not a wash out
by any means. The overall upr flow pattern wl become NWLY as a large
upr trof sloly swings EWD thru the upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region during the week. This pattern wl bring several upr impulses/
weak front`s acrs AR. There wl be enough moisture available to
produce scattered convection. However, the potential for any
organized severe wx wl be limited.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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