Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 010524 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1224 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES COULD BE SEEN AROUND KPBF/KLLQ AROUND SUNRISE.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS NOTED IN PLACES ATTM...WITH SOME 5KFT CLOUDS
ACROSS SW AR. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF CU DEVELOP AOA 5KFT
WEDNESDAY WITH A MID LEVEL DECK ABOVE THAT. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY
BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY BELOW 10
KTS...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS MAY BE SEEN AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH SH/TS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD...THOUGH
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY TEMPS TRENDS TNGT. LOW LVL DRY
AIR RMNS IN PLACE ACRS NERN AR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE
50S. MEANWHILE...SEEING LOW LVL MOISTURE SLOLY ON THE INCRS OVR
SWRN AR. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT BASED ON THESE TRENDS. ALSO
DID MENTION A SLGT CHC OF SHRA ACRS SWRN AR LATE TNGT DUE TO
INCRSG LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS HAS ALSO BEEN INDCD BY THE
LAST SEVERAL HI-RES MODEL RUNS. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE...ALL
UPDATES ARE OUT. /44/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AGAIN INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WILL SEE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND EVEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MODEST LIFT...AND RELATIVELY LOW CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS DEVELOP...IN THE 650-750 HPA LAYER.

FRONTAL SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS...WITH A LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY FALL LIKE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN BY NORTHWEST FLOW. SATURDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. ADDED SOME SMALL POPS TO NORTH ARKANSAS
ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES GLIDE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  68  86  61 /  10  10  50  80
CAMDEN AR         90  71  89  65 /  20  10  40  80
HARRISON AR       85  68  82  55 /  10  20  70  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  70  85  61 /  10  10  70  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  90  69  87  63 /  10  10  50  80
MONTICELLO AR     90  70  89  66 /  10  10  20  80
MOUNT IDA AR      86  69  83  59 /  10  10  70  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  87  67  85  58 /  10  20  70  70
NEWPORT AR        89  67  87  62 /  10  10  30  80
PINE BLUFF AR     90  69  88  64 /  10  10  30  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  69  85  60 /  10  20  70  70
SEARCY AR         89  68  86  62 /  10  10  40  80
STUTTGART AR      90  68  87  63 /  10  10  30  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...226





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