Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 241211 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
611 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. SRLY winds
will increase to around 8-12 kts this afternoon...with some gusts
approaching 20 kts across the NRN terminals. A new cold front will
drop south into the state just before sunrise Sat morning...with
NRLY winds expected behind this front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 254 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night

Quiet and dry conditions will continue through the short term
period...with no chances for precip expected through Sat night. SFC
pressure gradient will tighten some today...with SRLY winds
increasing. Even so...expect mainly 10 to 15 mph winds from the
south...with some gusts approaching 20 mph. Highs will also be
warmer than seen in the previous days...with highs in the 60s to low
70s.

A new upper shortwave trough and cold front will drop SE through the
state on Sat into Sat night...with winds switching back around to
the north. Expect slightly cooler temps on Sat with these NRLY
winds...and with increased cloud cover. Moisture levels will remain
very low with this front...with POPs remaining low.

The lack of significant rainfall and with continued dry air
remaining in place will keep the wild fire threat at least elevated
to high across the state. Winds will increase for this Fri...though
will remain below red flag criteria. However...min RH values will
drop below 40 percent for most areas. Some burn bans have
returned...and with the lack of any rainfall and a dry air remaining
across the area...the number of burn bans may increase in the coming
days.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday

The extended forecast will start with surface high pressure and
upper northwest flow into the region. Monday will seen the surface
high pressure gradually moving east, while upper high pressure
ridging will be seen. Dry weather with mild November temperatures
will be seen Sunday and Monday. Tuesday will continue overall dry
with mild temperatures, while over the southern Rockies, a
significant cut off low pressure system is forecast in model runs.
Some weaker energy is forecast to reach far western AR later Tuesday
and into Tuesday night.

On Wednesday to Thursday, this upper system moves through the
region, and will bring chances of convection to AR. This cycle run,
the GFS model is faster and a bit farther south than the Euro model,
and will use a blend for timing at this time. Best chances of rain
appear to be Wednesday to Wednesday night, then moving east during
the day Thursday. Moisture remains a limiting factor on the amount
of rain expected, and forecasts have overall less than 1 inch, and
mainly focused over northern AR.

As mentioned, temperatures will start above normal values, until the
system pushes through AR on Thursday. Highs will be in the 60s, then
back to the 50s late week. Lows will be around normal values, warm
ahead of the system, then back again to at or below normal values.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...62



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