Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 202329 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
630 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.AVIATION...

Overall VFR flight conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours.
Evening convection will weaken after sunset and dissipate. Late
Thursday night to Friday morning, patchy light fog will be possible
but not be widespread. Winds will be southeast to southwest at 5 to
10 mph Thursday evening, then become light from the south or light
and variable to calm Thursday night to early Friday morning. Winds
on Friday will be southeast to southwest at 5 to 10 mph. An isolated
shower or thunderstorm will be possible Friday afternoon to early
evening, but will be very isolated and not included in Tafs at this
time. (59)

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Saturday Night
A ridge of high pressure will continue as dominant feature
on Friday. Under the ridge, above average temperatures are
in the forecast, with very spotty precipitation during the
heat of the afternoon and early evening.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire forecast
area on Friday. Afternoon heat index values will range from 100
to 110 degrees at most locations.

On Saturday, the ridge will weaken a bit. This will allow
a cold front to slowly approach from the north. No huge
changes are in store. There will likely be more clouds and
small chances for precipitation. It will also be slightly
cooler. A Heat Advisory may be required, but will not be
extended at this time.
&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
The gist of the long term period is continued warm weather through
the weekend, with a bit of a reprieve and chances of rain during the
early part of next week. Then, the heat returns.

Upper ridging will be in the process of retrograding back to the
west Saturday night, as a decent shortwave trough moves southeast
across Minnesota and the Great Lakes. This shortwave will eventually
force a weakening boundary into Arkansas by late Sunday night into
Monday. This boundary will both knock temperatures down for the
first couple of days early next week, and also offer a good chance
of showers and thunderstorms. Expect to see fairly widespread
showers and thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday, but still of the
hit and miss variety most likely.

By the middle of next week, it looks like there is a good chance the
upper ridge will shift back eastward towards Arkansas, for a return
to hot weather.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     76  98  76  95 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         76  98  76  94 /   0  20  10  30
Harrison AR       73  96  74  95 /   0  10   0  10
Hot Springs AR    76  98  75  95 /   0  10   0  20
Little Rock   AR  77  97  77  95 /   0  10   0  20
Monticello AR     76  98  77  93 /   0  20  10  30
Mount Ida AR      73  97  74  94 /   0  10   0  20
Mountain Home AR  74  98  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        77  97  76  95 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     76  97  77  94 /   0  10   0  30
Russellville AR   75  98  75  96 /   0  10   0  10
Searcy AR         75  97  76  95 /   0  10   0  20
Stuttgart AR      77  97  77  94 /   0  10   0  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

Short Term...46 / Long Term...64



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