Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 230929
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
429 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night
No significant changes to the going persistence forecast for the
first half of the period. Elongated upper ridge still stretches
from the Great Lakes southwestward to central TX and will move
little during the day today. H850 temps still pushing 18-19C, so
highs expected to remain above average through the afternoon.
Hi-res guidance in good agreement this morning concerning the
position of upper level and surface features and progs have the
surface ridge axis draped over the northern half of the forecast
area, keeping most of the area in E/SE surface flow through the
period.

A weak upper low will retrograde west Sunday as the main upper
ridge finally begins pushing northeast. Gradual mid-level height
falls will allow this feature to slowly push toward SE AR before
sliding back east next week. Cloud cover will increase as a
result, and at least slight chance thunder is possible Sunday
afternoon/evening as strong subsidence aloft finally begins to
abate. H850 temps finally back off some to around 16C so kept
highs slightly cooler Sunday afternoon.

Good agreement among NAM/HRRR/RAP guidance, so weighted model
blend heavily in favor of their output. Also utilized a more
general blend of ECMWF/GFS guidance, especially Sunday/Sunday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

There remains little change in the overall details of the long term
portion of the forecast. I can`t think of any more creative ways to
phrase things without sounding like a broken record, but here goes...

Isolated diurnal convection will be noted Monday, as the upper low
remains near the region. However, this will get absorbed into the
mean flow by Tuesday, with ridging attempting to reassert itself. My
gut feeling is that most of the area will remain dry.

Ridge`s influence will begin to wane by Wednesday, and this will
allow a frontal boundary to move into the region from the plains.
Best bet on the front`s timing will be during the day Wednesday.
Behind the front, we may see falling temperatures in the northwest.
However, ahead of the front, temperatures will be well into the 80s,
and may even hit 90 in a few places. Of course, with the gift of pre-
frontal compression, there may be a few temperature gotchas, which
can happen this time of year (meaning a few places could hit mid 90s
or warmer before the frontal passage).

With the front, rain chances will increase. That being said, low-
level moisture return ahead of the front will not be that
impressive, given winds will be mostly out of the east or southeast.
In fact, precipitation, if any, will likely be post-frontal as an
upper system moves around the periphery of the ridge and interacts
with the boundary.

Fortunately, cooler air will be moving in behind the front. I`m
almost giddy to say this, but, temperatures will end the period
below seasonal averages. It will feel like fall again! Here`s hoping
it stays around a little longer this time.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Humidity will be low behind the front later in the week, with
afternoon minimums creeping down below 40 percent Friday and likely
into the weekend. Gradient between high pressure pushing in and
the front moving away from the area will elevate winds. Since the
first of September, rainfall in all but the extreme eastern
portion of Arkansas is running less than 50% of normal. The dry
conditions, elevated winds, and low humidity will add to an
increasing wildfire danger.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     91  69  89  68 /  10   0  20   0
Camden AR         94  71  91  70 /  10   0  20   0
Harrison AR       90  66  86  64 /  10   0  20   0
Hot Springs AR    93  71  88  69 /  10   0  20   0
Little Rock   AR  92  71  89  70 /  10   0  20   0
Monticello AR     92  71  89  69 /  20  10  20  10
Mount Ida AR      92  70  88  68 /  10   0  20   0
Mountain Home AR  91  68  88  66 /  10   0  20   0
Newport AR        92  69  89  68 /  10   0  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     93  71  90  69 /  10  10  20   0
Russellville AR   92  70  89  68 /  10   0  20  10
Searcy AR         91  69  89  68 /  10   0  20   0
Stuttgart AR      92  72  89  69 /  10  10  20   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...COOPER / Long Term...57 / Fire Weather...57



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