935
FXUS64 KLZK 160444 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1144 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper low
over the West Virginia/Kentucky border, moving to the east. Weak
upper level ridging was noted over Missouri and Arkansas with an
embedded convective cluster/remnant over northeast Oklahoma. To
the west, three distinct shortwave troughs were evident generally
moving east or southeast towards the Central and South Plains. The
12Z LZK weather balloon showed quite a bit of mid and upper level
dry air in place over the state. Early afternoon regional radar
mosaic showed a cluster of convection over northeast Oklahoma
moving east, but struggling with continuity and longevity as it
moved east over northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri,
encountering the dry air in place to the east.

Overnight into Thursday morning, one of the western shortwave
troughs will move east, but stay well north of Arkansas, basically
moving out of play for our local weather. It should help push a
frontal boundary to the south, helping to initiate thunderstorms
across western and central Oklahoma this evening. The other two
western troughs are expected to more or less consolidate over
Arizona and New Mexico before moving east towards Texas during the
day on Thursday. Once the upper level ridge pushes east of
Arkansas tonight winds aloft will generally become westerly
causing the remnants of the Oklahoma thunderstorms to push east
over Arkansas. Based on the latest model guidance, this activity
should generally be focused on the northern third of the state,
however wherever storms line up this evening will eventually
determine their easterly track. By the time storms get to
Arkansas, they are not expected to have much left in terms of
potency/severity, however with upper level ridging to the east,
there`s really nothing stopping them from continuing east,
probably across northern Arkansas, Thursday morning.

Whatever showers and storms move into Arkansas Thursday morning
will likely leave a boundary and potentially a mesoscale
convective vortex (MCV) that can help refocus convection across
northern Arkansas throughout the day on Thursday. While it won`t
rain continuously on Thursday, expect morning showers and storms
to be replaced by early afternoon showers and storms with the
boundary and possible MCV helping to provide low-level mass
convergence while breaks allow the sun to supply heating and
energy for later storm development. With nothing to focus storms
farther south, the rest of the state will likely miss out on the
rain Thursday and will simply heat up into the mid to upper 80s as
southerly winds become reestablished bringing Gulf moisture back
across the state.

For Thursday night and Friday, the consolidated upper trough is
expected to follow the east-northeasterly flow aloft and spread
large scale forcing for ascent over Arkansas. This should result
in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across much of
Arkansas from early Friday morning through the daylight hours of
the day. While severe weather is not expected, some isolated heavy
rainfall could lead to localized flooding. Widespread flooding is
not expected and rainfall totals in general are expected to top
out in the one half inch to one inch range. Owing to the
additional rainfall on Thursday, northern Arkansas is expected to
receive the most rainfall out of this event, thankfully where
rainfall is generally most needed according to the drought
monitor. The area of heaviest rain will likely be driven by
mesoscale details, those details that are generally not clear
beyond a few to several hours out ahead of occurrence. A much more
likely area of heavy rain is expected to be focused south of
Arkansas, across parts of north Texas, north Louisiana, and into
Mississippi.

Enjoy the clouds and moderately cool temperatures while they last
as the next couple of days precede quite the warm up headed into
the weekend and early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

An upper low will be over the Southern Plains to begin the long term
period. This low will move through Arkansas Friday night and
Saturday and the Midwest late Saturday and Sunday. An upper ridge
will build over Arkansas Sunday and Monday. An upper trough in the
Rockies will push the ridge to the east Tuesday. Zonal flow sets up
over the middle part of the country Wednesday.

A cold front will move through Arkansas Friday night and Saturday
pushing the rain to the east. All rain should exit east Arkansas by
Saturday evening. Sunday and Monday will be dry with high pressure
over the area. A short wave then moves through the state Tuesday and
will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday will be
dry. A warming trend is expected Friday into the first part of next
week with well above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Some patchy fog could be seen at the NRN terminals
overnight...along with some SHRA possible by sunrise. Additional
convection will remain possible at the NRN terminals throughout
the day Thu...with chances further south holding off until later
in the afternoon and mainly Thu evening areawide. Some sites could
see conditions drop to MVFR or maybe lower under the more intense
convection. Winds will remain less than 10 kts sustained for most
sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  82  65  74 /  10  40  70  90
Camden AR         62  84  66  79 /   0  10  80  50
Harrison AR       61  77  62  71 /  30  60  70  80
Hot Springs AR    63  84  65  77 /   0  20  70  70
Little Rock   AR  64  86  68  78 /   0  20  80  80
Monticello AR     65  86  68  79 /   0  10  80  60
Mount Ida AR      62  83  65  77 /  10  30  70  70
Mountain Home AR  62  79  63  71 /  30  60  70  90
Newport AR        64  84  67  74 /   0  30  70  90
Pine Bluff AR     64  86  67  78 /   0  10  80  70
Russellville AR   63  84  65  77 /  10  40  70  80
Searcy AR         62  84  65  75 /   0  20  70  90
Stuttgart AR      65  86  68  76 /   0  10  80  80

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...62