Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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762 FXUS64 KOUN 042343 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 643 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Main short term focus will storms late this afternoon into the overnight period, bringing both severe and flooding hazards. Storms are expected to initiate near a cold front / dryline triple point in west-central Oklahoma, then expand south and eastward through the evening. Continued moisture return and at least some diurnal warming will result in a highly unstable environment; this combined with adequate deep layer shear (~30 knots 0-6 km bulk shear) will result in an initial large to very large hail risk. Any discrete storms along the front will also have a low tornado risk. Low level shear will initially be low, ramping up with the low level jet around 00-02z. As storms form into a complex this evening (transitioning to a heavy rain and damaging wind threat), this will support MCS maintenance down through south central Oklahoma. This complex will likely take a similar path to last night`s complex, hitting areas that are already plenty saturated (1 and 3 hr flash flood guidance ranges from less than an inch to 2 inches through this area). Thus, a flood watch will be issued for parts of central and south central Oklahoma for tonight. Storms should exit the area by around 4am. Day && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 With the passage of Tuesday`s cold front, most of the moisture should be pushed out allowing for a couple of dry days in the forecast. Ridging will impinge from the southwest late this week, though that won`t completely keep out the possibility of northwest flow. Low rain chances (20-30%) return Thursday night and continue through early next week, mainly during the overnight periods (it`s MCS season). Day && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Scattered TSRA still anticipated from near KLAW/KCSM over toward KOKC/KOUN first few hours of the forecast, with potential for TSRA to spread south from Kansas toward KPNC and KSWO later this evening. TSRA expected to grow upscale into MCS mainly south and east of KOKC and move toward KDUA toward/shortly after 06Z. MVFR/IFR in and near TSRA through this evening. Mainly VFR with light northerly winds in wake of TSRA late tonight and tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 68 88 68 93 / 60 0 0 10 Hobart OK 69 93 68 97 / 20 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 70 91 68 96 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 63 93 68 94 / 10 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 65 89 65 88 / 60 0 0 10 Durant OK 70 88 66 93 / 60 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OKZ025>032-040>043-047- 048-051-052. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...11