908
FXUS64 KOUN 041054
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
554 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A low level jet, which is expect to veer with time, and mid-level
warm advection will continue to foster storms across central and
eastern Oklahoma through the early morning hours.  With high
elevated instability, some hail is likely but expect storms may
transition to more of a damaging wind risk. Although some of the
CAMs have become less bullish on a forward propagating MCS, still
feel this will occur, with the main impacts across the southeast 1/4
of Oklahoma.

Unlike the last several nights, this system is expected to exit the
area during the early morning instead of afternoon. This will
allow much better heating throughout the day and potential
recovery for additional storms. A little hard to predict where a
remnant boundary will be by late afternoon, but guidance suggest a
synoptic boundary will extend from the southern Texas Panhandle
northeast into northwest/north central Oklahoma. Trailing from the
front will be a dryline/perhaps outflow boundary with very high
instability developing near and east of the boundary. Very warm
temperatures around 7h may limit thunderstorm develop or coverage,
but there could be an area in north central Oklahoma where more
numerous storms could develop. Overall pretty low confidence in
this exact area. It possible that another complex could develop
during the evening and mainly impact the eastern half/third of
Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

It appears the frontal boundary may push far enough south that
Wednesday into Wednesday night will be dry perhaps into Thursday.
Another weak front may push across much of Oklahoma on Thursday but
increasing heights to our west, may reduce storm chance along the
front. Models differ some, but it is possible that we transition
to more of a traditional MCS pattern Friday night into the
weeknight. This will occur with upslope flow over the higher
terrain and northwest flow. Timing will generally be late evening
into the overnight/early morning hours. Usually heavy rainfall and
strong winds will be the main concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

MVFR ceilings and some lower visibility will remain possible this
morning and may linger into the afternoon wrt ceilings. Isolated
storms this morning should remain outside the TAF sites. More
storms expected to develop across north-central into central
Oklahoma late this afternoon and then traversing south/southeast
this evening and overnight. South winds will shift to the north
behind a front that will enter northwest Oklahoma later this
morning and move through all but DUA by this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  68  90  68 /  10  50   0   0
Hobart OK         96  69  94  69 /   0  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  99  70  92  71 /  10  20   0   0
Gage OK           89  63  95  68 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     86  65  89  66 /  10  50   0   0
Durant OK         89  70  89  70 /  30  50  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ023>032-039>043-
     045>048-050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30