Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
338 FXUS64 KOUN 060329 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1029 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The rest of today and tonight will remain mostly clear and seasonable, with light winds becoming southerly. Tomorrow, another cold front will enter northern Oklahoma, gradually sinking southward through the day. With the southerly flow ahead of the front, models suggest moisture pooling along the front resulting in elevated PWATs. CAMs (particularly the HRRR) suggest some isolated to widely scattered storms developing along the front in western / southwestern Oklahoma during the afternoon. Daytime heating should help erode any capping, though height rises through the day suggest a lack of upper level support. Instability and shear will support strong to marginally severe storms. Day && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Rain chances over the weekend have come up a tad as models are now showing a few shortwaves moving through the northwest flow. Right now, Saturday and Sunday nights stand out as showing the highest chances for rain (30-50%). Models diverge on the upper flow pattern for early next week. A deeper wave is supposed to move around the Great Lakes low pressure system, but models differ on timing, depth, and proximity to our forecast area. For now, we continue to maintain low PoPs through this period (20-30%). Mid to late week, it does appear the ridge finally starts to build in, though ensemble cluster analysis does show that some solutions continue zonal or northwest flow. Temperatures peak on Saturday (90s with a few 100s), followed by slightly cooler temperatures next week after a cold front Saturday night (80s and 90s). Day && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR conditions will generally continue for most terminals through the TAF period. Winds will gradually veer to the south to south- southwest ahead of a northerly wind shift that will enter northwest Oklahoma tomorrow morning. This wind shift will slowly move southward and is forecast to be near KCSM to KOKC by mid- afternoon. The wind shift will stall by late afternoon with winds becoming easterly across all terminals toward the end of the TAF period. There is a 20 to 30% chance that thunderstorms may develop along the wind shift across west central into central Oklahoma after 20 UTC. PROB30s were maintained at KCSM to KOKC/KOUN, southward to KLAW to account for this. Any thunderstorms could be strong to severe with gusty winds (50 knots or higher) and large hail (1" or larger) along with a brief reduction in visibility. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 66 93 66 88 / 10 20 20 10 Hobart OK 68 97 68 93 / 0 30 20 10 Wichita Falls TX 67 97 70 93 / 0 10 10 10 Gage OK 68 90 65 93 / 0 10 20 20 Ponca City OK 65 87 63 88 / 10 10 10 10 Durant OK 65 93 68 90 / 0 0 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...10