232
FXUS64 KSJT 082301
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
601 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

As upper level ridging continues to break down through the day
today, a shortwave troughing regime will begin to shift east out
of the southern Rockies and into the Plains. As we move into the
late afternoon and evening hours, upper level clouds are expected
to increase across the area with winds out of the south staying
elevated in velocity through much of the overnight period. This
will help overnight lows across the area stay in the low to mid
70s. Overnight tonight, a cold front is expected to drop south
into the Red River region just north of the area. Here it is
expected to stall out during the day on Sunday. A surface low out
in eastern New Mexico will keep our surface flow out of the
southeast, bolstering the already ample low level moisture we have
across much of the region. As the shortwave trough makes more
progress into the area by the afternoon, scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop, especially around the Permian Basin,
but realistically diurnal activity could pop up anywhere with the
greatest axis of instability draped across eastern portions of our
area. The bulk of the activity will likely be outside of the
short-term forecast after 00Z Monday but isolated development
around 21Z Sunday is certainly possible. The main hindrance to any
severe activity will be the lack of effective shear across the
area, forecasted around 20 kts during the afternoon. This would
support more multicellular storm modes but some isolated instances
of large hail and damaging winds can`t be ruled out. As such, SPC
has added all of West Central Texas into a Marginal for their Day
2 Convective Outlook. Temperatures for tomorrow will be
comparable to today with our western zones in the upper 90s to to
around 103 with mid 90s across our eastern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Upper level ridge will remain centered west of the area with a
little more northwest flow developing aloft for Sunday night into
Monday and then Tuesday. Hard to cap northwest flow and this is no
exception, with most model showing some level of convection
developing at times for the period. However, models do have their
differences in just where and and what time convection is most
likely. Will continue to just run chance POPs in the 30%-50% range
for much of the period between Sunday night and Tuesday and fine-
tune the chances as it gets pinned down a little more.

Cooler on Monday and Tuesday with additional cloud cover and
maybe some storms keeping temperatures down.

Center of the upper level ridge builds closer to the area for mid
week and then eventually the ridge axis builds eastward farther
into Texas and Oklahoma. This will bring dry conditions back to
the area and allow temperatures to climb once again. Highs back
into the upper 90s to around 100 to end the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

All sites are VFR at the moment, and will largely remain that way
through the next 24 hours. A brief period of MVFR ceilings is
possible at KJCT early Sunday morning, and will have a TEMPO group
for this possibility. Otherwise, winds will remain south to
southeast between 10 and 15 knots, with a few gusts to near 20
knots through the next few hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     75  98  71  88 /   0  10  40  40
San Angelo  75 101  71  91 /   0  10  40  40
Junction    72 100  72  93 /   0  10  20  30
Brownwood   71  94  71  88 /   0   0  20  30
Sweetwater  76  99  70  88 /   0  10  50  50
Ozona       74  98  71  90 /   0  10  30  30
Brady       72  95  71  88 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20