Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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489 FXUS64 KSJT 010459 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1159 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The latest severe weather/mesoanalysis analysis shows a dryline well to our west over the Trans Pecos to a weak surface low near Fort Stockton and a stationary front near the I-20 corridor form the Permain Basin eastward across the Big Country. To the south of the front across the southern 2/3 of the area, there is moderate to strong instability in place, most unstable across the Northern Edwards Plateau and effective shear bulk shear values of 35 to 45 knots over the southern half of the area. Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly south of I-20 late this afternoon and evening. Any storm that does develop will rapidly become severe due to strong/locally extreme instability and good deep layer shear. The main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, going with low chance Pops for tonight, mainly during the evening. For Saturday, looks mainly dry for much of the day. However, storms will fire to our west along the dryline during the afternoon. A few storms will probably move into our western counties by late afternoon with an isolated severe storm possible. Expect warm and humid conditions with highs Saturday in the 80s to lower 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A familiar pattern for this time of year will set up across West Central Texas this weekend and into early next week, with weak ridging and nearly zonal flow aloft with a warmer and unstable airmass building near the surface. However, models are showing this setup to be slightly weaker than what we have seen this past week so far. We`re generally expecting some diurnal showers and isolated thunderstorms lingering into Saturday evening through Monday, before a drier and even warmer airmass takes over and begins to cook parts of West Central Texas under triple digit high temperatures again. Ridging aloft will continue to strengthen across the area, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 90s to 106 range on Tuesday and Wednesday next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions currently present across the area. A complex of storms is moving southeast out of Lubbock towards our area. Have included a TS group for KABI with VCTS for KSJT as a gradual but slow weakening trend is expected as this complex progresses. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to build north during the early morning hours, mainly impacting our southern sites. Confidence in this stratus building all the way to KSJT is medium-low at this time but a brief MVFR group may need to be added with the next update. Ceilings will lift back to VFR by the late morning with wind gusts picking up out of the southeast during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 84 67 88 69 / 50 20 10 20 San Angelo 87 69 93 69 / 30 20 10 20 Junction 91 70 94 71 / 30 20 10 20 Brownwood 81 67 87 69 / 50 20 10 20 Sweetwater 82 67 89 69 / 60 20 10 30 Ozona 90 70 91 69 / 20 10 10 30 Brady 82 68 86 69 / 40 30 10 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...50