272
FXUS64 KSJT 171941
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
241 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

On Water Vapor satellite imagery, an upper level trough can be seen
over the Pacific Northwest, while upper level ridging existed across
Texas. As we go through today and tonight, the trough will push
east into Montana/Idaho/Wyoming, while upper level ridging will
remain in place across Texas and the eastern CONUS. At the
surface, a north to south oriented dry-line will stretch from the
NM/TX Border south through the Big Bend region. Hi-res models
indicate some storms forming along the dry-line this
afternoon/early evening, but those storms should stay west of our
forecast area. Meanwhile, strong surface low pressure across
eastern CO and surface high pressure to the east of us will
continue to bring a strong surface pressure gradient to the
region, causing continued gusty southeasterly winds (15-25 mph
with gusts of 35-40 mph) today and tonight. Finally, expect
similar highs and lows today/tonight (highs in the low to mid 90s
east, and upper 90s to around 100 west; lows in the low to mid
70s), as the 850 mb thermal ridge stays at around the same
strength.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024


...Heavy rainfall, possible flooding Wednesday and Thursday...

Main weather concern will be a tropical disturbance in the Gulf
of Mexico, which could become a tropical depression/storm over the
next 48 hours (around 70 percent chance of development on the Two
Day Tropical Weather Outlook from the Hurricane Center). Models,
have the system moving into Gulf Coast Tuesday night...along a
Junction to Brownwood line Wednesday...before moving west across
the region Wednesday night into Thursday.

Tropical moisture with 2 inches of precipital water moves into
the region Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be extremely
efficient, and localized flooding possible, particularly south of
I-20. Main problem will how much influence a developing upper
ridge over Mississippi Valley and Southeast U.S. will have....as
it may keep the heavy rainfall confined father south along the
I-10 corridor. Rainfall in most areas will continue to be
beneficial, but extreme tropical rainfall rates could cause flash
flooding.

The system does moves west of the region Thursday night, and dry
conditions with clearing skies are expected Friday as the upper
ridge continue to expand in from the east. Temperatures rebound
back well into the 90s by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the day at all
the terminals. However, MVFR ceilings will spread across the area
overnight and into tomorrow morning. Winds will remain gusty out
of the south-southeast through the evening and overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74  92  71  84 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  75  97  72  86 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    75  95  72  83 /   0   0   0  30
Brownwood   74  89  71  81 /   0   0   0  30
Sweetwater  74  95  71  86 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       73  94  71  85 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       73  89  71  79 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJH
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...42