568
FXUS62 KTAE 250800
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
400 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

The threat for severe weather remains for this afternoon and
evening with SPC maintaining a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5)
across the region near and to the north of I-10, including
portions of the FL counties, and Southeast AL and Southwest
GA. There is uncertainty on the coverage and timing of the
activity. One shortwave moves through the region late this
morning into the early afternoon, and while that could lead
to a brief shower, it does not have much moisture to work
with. The next shortwave approaching late this afternoon and
evening will have greater moisture and instability to work
with, given increase PWAT to around 1.8 inches and SB CAPE
of 2-3k J/kg. Model soundings show a bit of a mid-level cap
in the wake of the first shortwave, but that should break
eventually as we reach convective temperatures and the next
shortwave provides a source of lift. CAMS show thunderstorms
organizing into a loosely formed line/complex, given Bulk
Shear around 40 kts, and propagating southeastward into the
area late this afternoon and evening. Some drier air aloft
could limit the coverage of storms along the line, and there
is some uncertainty in timing. The most likely scenario is
for storms to enter the region during the early to middle
afternoon and move southeast through the evening. The main
threat is isolated damaging wind gusts in excess of 50 mph,
and isolated large hail (1"). Meanwhile, ahead of this,
showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms will develop,
especially in the FL counties during the afternoon. These
storms would be capable of wind gusts of 30 mph, and are
not associated with the aforementioned line/complex, which
should drive the main severe weather threat. Those with
outdoor plans are encouraged to monitor the weather, adjust
your plans accordingly, and head indoors if you hear thunder
or receive a warning.

Showers and thunderstorms will abate early tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Sunday night)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

There will be a return to dry weather on Sunday, so that looks
to be the pick of the weekend for outdoor plans. With above
average temperatures in the 90s, the Apparent Temperature/Heat
Index will approach 100 degrees at times, especially in the
FL counties, increasing heat stress for those outdoors that do
not take proper precautions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

The main concern is the potential for another round of severe
weather early next week. A cold front will approach on Monday and
move through the region Monday night into Tuesday. There looks
to be sufficient instability and shear for at least isolated
severe thunderstorms in the late Monday into Tuesday time frame.
SPC has outlooked portions of the region in a marginal risk.
After the front moves through, dry weather is expected midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

TAFs start out VFR early this morning. Within a couple hours of
sunrise this morning, expect another round of LIFR in fog/low
clouds at DHN and TLH. A brief period of MVFR vsbys in fog is
possible at DHN, while fog may develop invof ECP. Once the fog/
low clouds lift by 12-14Z, expect VFR. Attention then turns to
a complex of thunderstorms expected to move southeast into the
region. Highest confidence in impacts is at ABY, DHN, and VLD,
where TSRA is depicted in TEMPO groups late this aftn/evening.
Less confidence in TSRA at ECP and TLH, with VCTS and a TEMPO
for TSRA, respectively. Winds generally Southwest around 5 to
10 kts today, with the exception of higher gusts in TSRA, which
will be refined in subsequent TAFs if needed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Light winds and low seas will continue through the holiday
weekend. The lone exception will be if today`s thunderstorms can
make it far enough south to impact winds and seas over the Gulf.
Therefore, locally higher winds and seas cannot be ruled out near
and within thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. West to
southwest winds will increase ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary on Monday and Tuesday, with seas increasing to around 2
to possibly 3 feet in the offshore waters. The front will also
bring a chance of showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday. More tranquil
weather will settle into the waters on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

The combination of West transport winds around 10 to 15 mph and
mixing heights around 5,000 feet will lead to high dispersions
this afternoon mainly near the I-75 corridor of GA. By late this
afternoon and evening, a complex of thunderstorms is expected
to move southeastward through much of the region, with frequent
lightning and gusty, erratic winds. On Sunday, the combination of
Southwest transport winds around 10 to 15 mph and mixing heights
of 5,000 to 6,000 feet will lead to high dispersions during the
afternoon afternoon across much of the region north of I-10, which
includes portions of the FL counties, and much of Southeast AL
and Southwest GA. Dry weather is expected on Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures will be above average this weekend into early next
week, and when factoring in humidity, the Apparent Temperature/
Heat Index will be in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Portions of the Withlacoochee river basins remains in minor flood
as from last weeks storms. With the Withlacoochee slowly draining
into the Suwanee, we could see some rises reaching minor flooding
on portions of the Suwanee in the coming week. Overall, outside
of the possible points along the Suwanee reaching flood, no other
river basins are expected to reach flood stage.

Rainfall with the storms expected this afternoon and evening
could reach between 0.5" and 1" for the bounded area west of the
Flint River and north of I-10, which is mainly Southeast Alabama.
But there is the potential for locally higher amounts around 3
inches, mainly along a corridor from roughly Dothan to Valdosta.
That would result in localized poor drainage flooding, but the
potential for flash flooding is low.

Looking ahead, the next chance of rainfall is with the approach
and passage of a cold front Monday into Tuesday, with average
rainfall amounts less than one inch. From mid to late next week,
our summer rain season will begin to get underway with chances
for daily seabreeze convection increasing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  71  93  71 /  30  20   0   0
Panama City   87  74  86  75 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        90  71  91  72 /  30  20   0   0
Albany        91  71  92  71 /  40  10   0   0
Valdosta      93  71  94  71 /  40  30   0   0
Cross City    92  70  91  69 /  10  20   0   0
Apalachicola  86  74  85  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF