955
FXUS62 KMHX 240003
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
803 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will reside across the piedmont while a series
of upper level shortwaves will generate multiple rounds of
shower and thunderstorm activity through the weekend. A stronger
cold front will move through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 2000 Thursday...Seabreeze is currently about halfway
through our Wern-most with convection from the W approaching
the FA. The area out of ahead of the seabreeze will be the
places to watch for any severe threat this evening. Bulk of the
forecast remains on track. SPC continues a marginal risk of
severe across Wern counties as a few storms this evening could
bring damaging wind gusts and perhaps large hail. As we move
through the evening, instability will wane and the severe threat
should end by midnight but showers and isolated tstms may
continue through the overnight as additional mid level energy
pushes across the area. Muggy overnight with lows generally in
the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 4 PM Thursday...A moist and unstable airmass remains
across the region Friday with another mid level shortwave
and sfc front approach from the NW. Shower chances linger
through the morning but expect greater coverage during the
afternoon, around 30-50%, when instability is maximized. The
severe threat will be minimal with shear around 20-25 kt and
SBCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Warm and muggy conditions will
persist but low level thicknesses are several meters lower than
today and expect highs in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Weather remains unsettled for the weekend and into early next week
with small chances (20-30%) each day through Tuesday

- Above normal temperatures for much of the period with inland areas
in the mid to upper 80s and upper 70s to low 80s along the coast.

Much of the long term forecast will be characterized by
unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms possible each
through midweek before drier conditions prevail.

The period will begin on Friday night with a weak frontal
system with the parent high over the Canadian Maritimes
gradually sinking into the Carolinas. By the time it arrives,
there will not be much of an airmass change with warm and moist
conditions remaining prevalent. While this is happening the tail
end of the departing system will combine with an approaching
system from the west creating a stationary front that will
feature several shortwaves pulsing along it through the weekend.
While no day will likely be a washout, periods of showers and
thunderstorms can be expected particularly during diurnal peak
heating.

Along with the rain chances, temperatures are expected to be above
normal and heat index values creeping into the low to mid 90s,
especially inland locations on Sunday and Monday afternoons. These
two day will present the hottest conditions before a bit of
relief although still warm for the middle part of the week.

For next week model confidence is very low as attention turns to a
slow meandering low pressure system over the upper midwest that will
bring the next wave of moisture in from the west. Forecasted
precipitation chances are low for now due to the uncertainty
but would not be surprised to see them increase in future
iterations of the forecast as models get a better idea of how to
handle on what right now is a very disorganized system at best.
Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 1930 Thursday...VFR flight cats expected much of the
period but isolated to scattered convection may bring periods of
sub- VFR this evening and continuing into Friday as mid level
shortwaves move across rtes with a moist and unstable airmass
remaining in place. Stronger storms will be possible this
evening across western rtes which could bring strong wind gusts
and hail. Light winds and decent cloud cover will limit fog
development but cannot rule out patchy shallow fog at some
locations late tonight but probability for widespread fog very
low (<10%). Lull in precip chances early morning FRI but those
will build again through the day. Outside of convection FRI
expecting VFR flight cats but CIGs will be flirting with MVFR
with cloud bases ~FL030-040. Continue mention of SCT025 and
introduced VCSH for all terminals in the afternoon FRI.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...For Friday and beyond expect rain and
thunder chances each day with afternoon hours being most
susceptible to convection. Southwest winds will prevail for much
of the period with speeds of 5- 10 kts gusting to 15.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...
As of 430 PM Thursday...High pressure will remain offshore
through the short term bringing SW winds around 15 kt or less.
Could see gusts to around 20 kt during the afternoon and evening
hours when thermal gradients are tightest. Seas will be around
2-3 ft. Thunderstorm chances will increase this evening and
continue through Friday as series of weak systems move across
the region.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 4 AM Thursday...SW winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 15-20
kt, as well as 2-3 ft seas and multiple chances for showers and
thunderstorms, will stick around through the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/CEB
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RTE/SK/CEB
MARINE...RTE/SK