Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 202357
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
755 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BACK OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH UPDATE. ALL LATEST
MODELS INDICATE LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING ALONG COAST 00Z-06Z WITH
ONSHORE LOW LVL FLOW AND SHRT WV APPROACHING FROM W...THUS NO CHANGE
TO SLIGHT CHC POPS. STLT AND SFC OBS INDICATE SCU DEVELOPING OVER
ERN HALF OF AREA...AND COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHALLOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN 50S INLAND AND 60S OBX.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 120 PM MON...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING MID LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY TO AROUND
THE PA/WV BORDER LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE
TONIGHT PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER ON
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT THEY
DO AGREE THAT COASTAL SECTIONS WILL HAVE SOME AREAS OF RAIN TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...FIRST PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE REFLECTION WILL HOLD OFF MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TIL THE MAIN MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE
BASE OF TROUGH AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW 7H...AND MODEL ARE KEEPING THE
AREA DRY ON TUESDAY...FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN AS CAN RULE OUT CHANCE OF ANYTHING FORMING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST THINKING.
STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND
SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM CLOSING OFF A LOW PRES SYSTEM
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH DETERMINISTIC 20/12Z GFS/ECM
IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES ON
SFC LOW PLACEMENT OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC. ECM ADVERTISES A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW DEEPENING CLOSER TO THE COAST...WHILE GFS IS
A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE. IN EITHER CASE...COOLER PATTERN WILL MOVE
IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. HAVE RETAINED LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE CYCLONIC CURVATURE AROUND
PARENT LOW BRINGS A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT TO THIS AREA AND MAY
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WED AND THUR WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX T`S GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID
50S ON THE BEACHES.

BROAD NW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH VERY PLEASANT DRY AND
SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. BUILDING UPR RIDGE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AND TEMPS MAY CLIMB ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WED/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
SCU DEVELOPING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND SHRT WV APPROACHING FROM
W BUT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...AND TOO LOW THREAT TO INCLUDE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
LIGHT SRLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE STEAM FOG
THREAT THAT PRODUCED PERIODS OF IFR AT KPGV AND KEWN MON MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...PLEASANT FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG
TERM WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME
GUSTY NW WINDS ON WED BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT N TO NW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 155 PM MON...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS WILL
START THE FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL MESS
WITH THE WINDS TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY IN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
WIND SHIFT AS NOT ALL MODELS PICKING UP ON IT. HOWEVER ALL MODELS DO
INDICATE PRECIPITATION IN THE MARINE AREAS. WITH WEAK GRADIENT
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET.

AS TROUGH DISSIPATES OR MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS TUESDAY...WIND
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN...GRADIENT WILL BE LOOSE FOR WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP A BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE SYSTEM GETTING CLOSER...BUT WILL
BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNSET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY. LOW PRES DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WED INTO WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING STRONG NW 20-30
KT WINDS TO THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS LATE WED INTO
EARLY THUR. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK WED NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP SEAS INTO
THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE...AS WAVE WATCH 4 SEEMS UNDERDONE AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE AREA
PRODUCING LONG NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS.
DID NOT FCST QUITE AS HIGH AS THE NWPS OUTPUT AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH USED A HEAVILY WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARDS NWSP VS WW4.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...CGG/TL





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