Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 282323
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
723 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will lift back north this evening.
A stronger front will approach from the northwest Monday and
Tuesday, and stall along the coast through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...Eastern NC remains in a
warm/moist/unstable regime with low amplitude pertubations
moving through the flow aloft helping to trigger episodic
convective clusters. The initial area of storms that occurred
across the extreme north late this afternoon has moved offshore.
A secondary area of convection has formed over portions of
South Carolina and southeast NC early this evening. Expecting
these storms to affect mainly the southern half of the area
south of the Pamlico river this evening. A few of these storms
could be marginally severe with large hail and damaging wind
gusts the main threats. The guidance is in good agreement that
this activity will move east of the area by 6Z with the
remainder of the overnight hours dry as the low level flow
becomes westerly. Another mid-summer night in terms of
temperatures expected with lows in the low/mid 70s over most
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 315 PM Sunday...In many ways, Monday will be a repeat of
today with a capping inversion keeping the convection at bay
until later in the afternoon or evening hours per latest 3km NAM
and GFS. The entire CWA remains in a Slight Risk of Severe
thunderstorms and would again expect strong gusty winds to be
the primary threat. Maintained PoPs in the 30-40 percent range
for Monday afternoon and evening. MOS numbers and 850
temperatures show that Memorial Day could be the warmest day of
the year so far for some spots, especially near the coast where
highs could approach 90 degrees with even mid/upper 80s over the
central and northern Outer Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 415 PM Sunday...An unsettled pattern will be the rule
through the extended period as shortwaves/disturbances move
through the region aloft, with a weak front lingering across or
near the area. These features will lead to continued low
confidence through the period due to timing and exact locations
of shortwaves/frontal boundaries across area.

Monday night...Expect any afternoon or evening convection to
linger overnight as weak shortwaves move through WSW flow aloft.
There will also be a weak front approaching the area. GFS/ECMWF
forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE values of 500-1500 with deep
layer shear (0-6km) increasing to 40-45 knots, thus concern for
strong to severe storms remains. SPC continues to keep the area
in a Slight Risk of severe for their Day 2 Outlook. Kept PoPs
in 30 to 40 percent range overnight. Lows remaining muggy, 70-74.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...A weak front is expected to stall across
or just northwest of the area Tuesday, and wash out across area
with additional short wave energy resulting in another period
of mainly diurnally driven showers and t-storms. Tuesday afternoon
convection could be similar to or exceed Monday`s activity,
mainly because of better moisture focused along the stalled
front and channeled shortwave/vorticity over the region
coincident with peak afternoon heating. More cloud cover and
lower thicknesses will keep max temps mainly in the 80s. Lows
Tuesday night 66-70 inland to lower 70s coast. SPC has the
entire area under a marginal risk of severe for their Day 3
Outlook with continued instability and shear.

Wednesday-Thursday...Another weak front will sag southeast into
the region Wednesday, serving as a focus for showers and
thunderstorms. Instability and shear will be more marginal than
previous Mon-Tues, thus while thunderstorms will be possible,
severe potential appears much more limited at this time. Latest
guidance suggests the front should move offshore late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, yielding lower PoPs to only slight
chance, and latter shifts may be able to remove PoPs for
Thursday. Low level thicknesses will build near 1400 meters
supporting max temps in the mid 80s inland to upper 70s along
the coast/OBX.

Friday-Sunday...Low confidence for this forecast period due to
poor model continuity. Generally only made minor tweaks and
followed closely with blended guidance approach. Higher chance
PoPs for Friday with the front lifting back north, helping to
focus moisture over the area through the weekend. Max temps
generally in the mid 80s inland with low 80s along the coast,
and lows ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...Should be a mainly VFR forecast outside
of scattered thunderstorms this evening and again Monday
afternoon. Light low level mixing should preclude most fog
overnight.


Long Term /Monday night through Friday/
As of 420 PM Sunday...Expect periods of sub-VFR aviation
conditions with convective activity each afternoon and evening
from Monday night through Wednesday. Less coverage for
Thursday as a weak front should move more offshore. Sub-VFR
will again be possible Friday afternoon/evening as showers and
thunderstorms will be possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Monday/
As of 720 PM Sunday...Winds continue to be gusty over the
central and southern waters and Pamlico Sound and will continue
winds to 15-20 knots through the evening before winds become
more westerly and diminish to 10-15 knots later tonight and
Monday. Per local NWPS/SWAN guidance, seas should remain in the
2 to 4 foot range through the forecast period.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/
As of 420 PM Sunday...The period will experience zonal flow
with weak disturbances aloft and a front lingering near or into
the area. Specifics are difficult to forecast with regard to the
frontal location. Do not have much confidence to times that
occurs, except that by Thursday the front should push through at
least the northern waters for a brief period. The southern half
of waters will mainly see SW winds 5-15 knots during period but
northern waters will see some periods of shifting winds but
with speeds less than 15 knots. Southern waters will see some
periods of seas building to 4 feet for outer portions with
stronger SW winds around 15 knots, otherwise seas mainly 2-3
feet during the extended period. NWPS and Wavewatch in good
agreement through the medium range, with Wavewatch appearing
reasonable for the extended seas forecast.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/JME/CTC
MARINE...DAG/JME/CTC


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