Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 102003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
303 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016

Cold high pressure will exit to the east Sunday. A warm front
will move north through the area Sunday night. A cold front will
cross the area Monday night and stall just to the south of the
area. The front will lift north across the area as a warm front
Tuesday night. Another cold front will cross the area Wednesday
night. High pressure will build over the area late in the week.


.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Arctic high pres building in over E NC has
continued the chilly temperatures with most areas topping out in
the low/mid 40s for highs once again. Excellent radiational
cooling conditions develop again tonight with sharply plummeting
temps after sunset. Will reissue fz warning for the OBX as they
should see a period of calm winds with the high overhead. Many
areas were at or above freezing this morning due to light winds.


.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Monday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...High pres will slide offshore on Sunday
with building hts/thicknesses in response. Temps will respond by
moderating back into the 50-55 degree range. Winds will become
easterly though remain light. Sunday night, coastal trough/warm
front will lift north through the FA with area of modest albeit
low level lift propagating through E NC. It appears best chance
for showers will be across coastal locales where moisture is
deepest, though some light showers can be expected further inland
as well. Low temps will occur near sunset, then steadily
moistening of the atms and inc southerly flow allow for temps to
rise through the night, with coastal areas around 60 degree by
late Sunday night. Monday, area will be in warm sector with deep
SW flow across the area. Chances for precip will diminish with
best lift and moisture north of the area, though will continue
inherited low chc pops with warm moist atms. Temps should climb
towards the upper 60s to near 70 degrees for many areas.


As of 235 AM Saturday...A fast and progressive low amplitude
zonal flow will continue across much of the CONUS through next
week with a series of disturbances moving across the area. This
will cause a parade of fronts to move across eastern NC producing
unsettled conditions Sunday night into perhaps Thursday. Forecast
confidence in precipitation details continues below normal due to
the progressive nature of the flow resulting in a lack of run to
run consistency and differences among the models. Temperatures
will moderate by Monday which could be the warmest day of the week
then a series of cold fronts will cross the area through mid week
producing near normal temperatures.

Sunday and Sunday night...High pressure will be moving offshore
Sunday with increasing clouds expected in the afternoon.
Increasing southerly flow Sunday night will lead to an increase in
moisture over the area and should see showers develop Sunday
night especially eastern portion. Highs Sunday will range from the
upper 40s to lower 50s inland to lower to middle 50s coast. Lows
Sunday night are expected to occur in the evening with deeper
cloud cover and developing southerly flow resulting in increasing
temperatures after midnight.

Mon thru Thursday...Cold front will be approaching from the west
Monday and cross the area Mon Night with a good chance of showers
and mild temps with highs Mon near 70. High pres will quickly
build in briefly Tue afternoon with near seasonal highs in the 55
to 60 degree range. The initial cold front which is forecast to
stall to the south Tuesday will move north through the area as a
warm front Tuesday night. Another cold front is expected to cross
Wed night however low confidence given lack of model agreement and
consistency. For now will have chance PoPs Tuesday night into
Thursday. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be 55 to 60 cooling to
45 to 50 Thursday as high pressure begins to build into the area.

Friday...Expecting "dirty" high pressure to build into the area
from the north with cool/dry weather under mostly cloudy skies.
Highs are forecast in the 40s.


Short Term /Through 18z Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Sat...VRF SKC for the TAF pd. A few high cirrus may
skirt through E NC overnight though winds will become calm.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...High pressure will slide off the coast
Sun with continued VFR then return flow will lead to some increase
in clouds late Sunday and a chc of showers with sub VFR conditions
Sunday into Mon night. Looks like VFR will briefly return Tue as
high pressure builds over the area in the afternoon. Then moisture
increases ahead of the next cold front Wednesday with showers
producing sub VFR conditions.


Short Term /Through Sunday Night/...
As of 3 PM Friday... Latest obs indicating N winds around 10 kt
most areas. Sfc high pressure move closer with winds diminishing
tonight as the high is overhead, bringing wind speeds btw 5-10 kts
and seas becoming 2-3 ft. High will edge offshore on Sunday with
winds veering NE to E but staying light in the 5-10 kt range. High
moves offshore further while cold front approaches from the west
and winds respond by increasing dramatically Sunday night into
early Monday. Have hoisted SCA for all but the rivers and
Albemarle sound as gusty SW flow and building seas will affect the
marine domain Sunday evening through as late as Monday evening due
to lingering high seas.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...Winds will then shift to N 10 to 15 kt
Monday night then diminish to NE 5 to 10 kt late Tuesday behind
the front. Light northerly flow Wednesday is expected to become
W/NW 10 to 15 KT. Seas of 1 to 3 feet Sunday will will build to 5
to 8 ft Sunday night and Monday then subside to 3 to 5 ft late
Monday night. Seas will be forecast 2 to 4 ft Tuesday building to
3 to 5 ft Wednesday. .


NC...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Sunday for
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 10 PM EST Monday for
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ150.


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