Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 231718
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1218 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1217 PM SUN...SOME LIGHT AREAS OF RAIN HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS DEWPOINTS INCREASING. BOUNDARY CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
BRINGING MOIST AIR TO THE AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K FEET BUT
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AT MIDDAY. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
AND INCREASING WINDS UP TO 6K FEET BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED BY 21Z.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING THE BEST LOW LEVEL LIFT OCCURING BETWEEN
AROUND 21Z AND 09Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER INSTABILITY DOESNT APPEAR TO
RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA HAS A TENDENCY TO LIMIT INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH
HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD
HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF
TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX
OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1149 AM SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MORNING WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WARM
FRONT ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST AIR TO AREA TAFS
AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED BY MIDMORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1217 PM SUN...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3
FEET. WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST WILL HELP RAMP UP WINDS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AS IT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15
FEET PER LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG. NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...CGG/RSB
MARINE...CGG/RSB/CTC





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