Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 210243
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
943 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017
High pressure will extend over the area from the north into Tuesday.
The high will slide offshore Wednesday through Friday. A cold
front will move in from the west Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 940 PM Monday... Cirrus clouds continue to spill over the
top of a ridge axis located to our west. Earlier concerns that
our overnight mins may need to be inched upward are no longer a
concern. Despite the thicker clouds, our current hourly temp
forecast is within a degree or two at all sites, so the min
forecast remains unchanged.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 330 Pm Monday...upper ridge will crest over area in the
morning and surface high center will begin to shift more NE of
area, resulting in some weak coastal troughing in afternoon. NAM
is most aggressive with this feature indicating some spotty
light showers moving in along coast by evening but appears to be
overdone given current dry conditions extending over offshore
waters. Will indicate some increasing clouds with thickening
high clouds during day and some SCU moving onshore during
afternoon but no POPs at this time. Low level thicknesses 15-20
meters lower combined with additional cloud cover supports max
temps mainly mid to upper 60s with 55-60 Outer Banks.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 pm Mon...Much above temps will be the rule through the
first half of the weekend with upper flow keeping any cold air
confined far to the north. Surface ridge off the east coast will
slowly move east through the end of the week. A surface low will
cross Florida Thursday, then lift northeast Friday and
Saturday. Both GFS and ECMWF show rich boundary layer moisture
Wednesday and Wednesday night. At the same time, weak vort
energy in the mid-levels will pass through, but near-surface
dynamics weak. Have kept in a slight chance of showers, but
confidence is low on seeing any measurable precip. Moisture
thins out, with dry and very warm conditions Thursday and
Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s most inland locations.
A cold front approaches and moves through Saturday. Warm
southwest flow ahead of it will push highs again into the mid
and upper 70s. Models show much of the available moisture
lifting out to the north during the day, so have put in only
slight chance PoPs. Northwest flow behind the front will bring
in cooler temps Sunday, with highs in the upper 50s to lower
60s. The flow quickly backs to southwest Monday with highs in
the mid to upper 60s most areas inland from the coast.
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tuesday Afternoon/...
As of 640 PM Monday...VFR through the end of the taf period.
High clouds will continue over the TAF site with no aviation
impact. East to east-northeast winds at 10 KTS or less through
the end of the TAF period are expected.
Long Term /Tue night through Sat/
As of 230 pm Mon...Mostly VFR through the period. MVFR possible
in light showers Wednesday afternoon and evening. Surface winds
will be from the south around 5 knots Wednesday and Thursday,
southeast around 10 knots Friday and southwest 10-20 knots
Short term/through Tuesday/
As of 940 PM Monday...Seas remain at 4 feet at Diamond buoy but
wind gusts have begun to diminish over the past few hours. The
pressure gradient which was tight and responsible for some gusty
conditions a few hours ago will weaken with each passing hour
through daybreak. The result will be NE winds 15-20 kts
diminishing to 5 -15 kts Tuesday. Winds will veer toward the
east for the southern and central waters. Waves which are
running around 4 feet over the outer waters may spike around 5
in the next hour or two with the lag from the stronger wind
gusts before subsiding to 2 to 4 feet Tuesday.
Long Term /Tue night through Sat/ As of 230 pm Mon...Light
winds and seas forecast through Thursday night. High pressure
off the east coast Wednesday will slowly move east. Low pressure
will pass far to the south and east of the coast Friday and
Saturday. Winds will average 5-10 knots and seas 2-4 feet.
Southwest winds will increase Friday into Saturday as a cold
front approaches from the west. Seas will build to 4-6 feet,
with winds increasing to 15-20 knots south of Oregon Inlet and
10-15 knots north.