Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 272132
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
432 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC LOW NOW CENTERED OVER CAPE HATTERAS WITH THE
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND A ROBUST
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS VA AND THE CAROLINAS. SUFFICIENT
DYNAMICS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT TO BRING ISOL-SCT SHOWERS
WHICH IS NOW PUSHING ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AND INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN. ENOUGH COLD POOL ALOFT THAT WE EVEN GOT A REPORT OF HAIL
(GRAUPEL) IN A STRONGER CELL MOVING ACROSS LENOIR COUNTY. SHOWER
CHANCES WANE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT
MOVE OFFSHORE. STRONG CAA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH MIXING
PREVENTING MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING HOWEVER LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AROUND 1290M SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WHICH IS
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
CREST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS USUALLY PRODUCES STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT THIS COOLING. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE 20S INLAND THOUGH.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE AND RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENING. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 50S SATURDAY,
WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND AROUND 70 ON MONDAY. A
WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH AND PROPELS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BEHIND THE SFC BNDRY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT SO WILL KEEP
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS
PARKS A HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC KEEPING EASTERN NC DRY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOIST COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY TO START TRENDING TOWARD A
WETTER MID WEEK FORECAST. COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS THE FRONT FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM THU... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS AFTERNOON A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND MVFR CEILING. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR
MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK AND PASSES OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, CHANCES
FOR LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS SFC DEW POINTS
RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...LOW PRES CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WATERS BRINGING LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT...BUT
SOUTH OF THE LOW GRADIENTS ARE STRONGER AND SEEING WLY WINDS
AROUND 20-25 KT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH. THE LOW AND ASSOC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG
CAA DEVELOPING BRINGING NW WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT ACROSS ALL
WATERS...WHICH CONTINUES INTO MID-DAY FRIDAY THEN DIMINISHES TO
10-20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SCA ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND AND HAVE ADDED ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS
THE NAM/CMC BOTH INDICATE WINDS TO 25 KT ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE SOUND. SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 3-6 FT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 4 TO 8 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-DAY
FRIDAY...THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE,
WINDS BECOME SW SATURDAY 10 TO 15 KT, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEST WINDS MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE WATERS IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLD
NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN THE STRENGTH
OF THIS SURGE SO WILL FORECAST A MODERATE 15 TO 20 KT FLOW WHICH
WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE 6 FT SEAS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/BM
MARINE...BTC/SK





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