Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 281057
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
657 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist
through the weekend. A weak cool front will approach from the
northwest next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 655 AM Thursday, earlier dropped PoPs from the forecast
through at least early afternoon as weak subsidence is prevailing
over the region behind convective complex which moved offshore
late last night. Frontal boundary has moved back north into
Virginia and should lessen convective coverage today. HRRR/RAP
have come into better agreement with the NAM/GFS showing only
minimal convection later this afternoon and evening. Have
continued close to the previous forecast with low chance PoPs far
inland, slight chance to the east of that, and with little or no
PoPs along the southern coast. The other issue today is the heat.
Have another Heat Advisory in effect for all but Outer Banks Hyde
County. Contemplated an Excessive Heat Advisory for some of the
counties between the Albemarle and Pamlico Sound, as heat indices
may exceed 110 degrees for a few hours, but with only a couple of
counties potentially affected, stayed with Heat Advisory for now,
as dayshift can further evaluate. High temperatures inland today
will reach the mid/upper 90s with around 90 to the lower 90s coast
again today.

&&

.SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 255 AM Thursday, threat of convection lingers until around
02Z or so before model soundings indicate some drying of the
column and somewhat lower precipitable water values by later
tonight. Temperatures will still be quite warm with lows mid/upper
70s and lower 80s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3am Thu...The hot and mainly dry pattern will be shifting
toward a wetter and slightly cooler one during the long term. The
axis of the Bermuda high will shift further south with broad upper
trof through much of the period, with numerous shortwaves moving
through the flow over a warm, humid, unstable airmass. Piedmont
trof will remain in place through the weekend. Next week though,
the frontal boundary to the north will slowly move south, reaching
the NC/VA border 12Z Tuesday, then further south to the southern
coastal area 12Z Wednesday. Convection on Friday will be isolated
and concentrated mainly along and just east of the coastal plain.
There will be a better chance for storms Saturday as the Piedmont
trof shifts toward the coast and models depict a shortwave moving
through during the day, with a similar setup for Sunday. PoPs go
up further to likely early next week, with the frontal boundary
moving south into the warm, humid, unstable airmass at the
surface, while the upper trof sharpens a bit with several
disturbances moving through the flow. Highs in the lower to mid
90s will continue into Saturday, with slightly cooler temps
thereafter due to increased cloud cover and better chances for
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short term /Through 12Z Friday/...
As of 655 AM Thursday, most of the convective debris cloudiness
has dissipated with generally clear skies across the region. VFR
conditions should prevail today into this evening with only
widely scattered TSRA at the KPGV/KISO TAF sites. With clearing
indicated by numerical guidance, will forecast for patchy MVFR
toward morning Friday.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/
As of 3am Thu...Pattern become more stormy as the Bermuda high
shifts south and a frontal boundary approaches from the north
early next week. Sub-VFR in isolated convection Friday, scattered
Saturday, and numerous Sunday and Monday. Surface winds SW 10-15
Friday, S 5-10 knots Saturday, SW 10 knots or less Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Today and Tonight/
As of 655 AM Thursday, winds have become fairly light across the
coastal waters and sounds, generally 5-10 knots from the SW/W this
morning. Seas are running 1-3 feet, with a few 4-footers well
offshore. Winds should continue SW today and tonight at 5-15
knots with seas generally 2-3 feet per latest local NWPS/SWAN wave
model.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/
As of 3am Thu...SW flow continues through the period. Axis of
Bermuda high will shift further south, while a frontal boundary
approaches from the north early next week, with the result being
an increasing chance of seeing thunderstorms across the marine
zones. Flow will continue from the SW through the period, with
10-20 knots and seas 2-4 feet on the coastal waters, and 5-15
knots on the adjacent sounds and rivers.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA


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