Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 032016
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
416 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS LOCATED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES PRODUCING WEAK WSW TO WNW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM
OFF CAPE COD DOWN TO COASTAL GEORGIA/FLORIDA WITH A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SPINNING NEAR JACKSONVILLE/SAVANNAH AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM CHARLESTON, SC, NORTHEAST TO OFF
OREGON INLET, WITH LITTLE COVERAGE INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE POP GRADIENT OF LIKELY AT THE COAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS, TAPERING TO CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ARE HAVING ISSUES TAPING INTO
INSTABILITY BUT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO PRECIP/CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE LOW
70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MON...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING THEN ALONG THE NC COAST BY
MID AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED POPS HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVEMENT, ALONG WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
EXPECT MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THEM
OUT, ESPECIALLY SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK AHEAD
OF/ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRANSITION THROUGH EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE TO 1415-1425 METERS TUESDAY
YIELDING MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S
INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, A
FAIRLY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RAIN MOVES OFFSHORE AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH AN N/NW DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE WARM
AS H8 TEMPS APPROACH 20 DEGREES C WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND 88 TO 91 EVEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INLAND...COUPLED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTION, WILL LEAD
TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY OVER FAR INLAND AREAS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF A
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE, AND A
DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES, EXPECT A FAIRLY WET PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE GENERALLY 40-50 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE DAY WITH LINGERING 20-30 PCT POPS AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PER NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION, MAINLY MID/UPPER 80S
WITH LOWS LOW/MID 70S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY. WILL
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
AS OF 2 PM MON...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR PGV/ISO THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO
WILL HOLD OFF MENTION OF VCSH. SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY FOR
EWN/OAJ SO WILL MAINTAIN VCTS/BROKEN CB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS AT PGV/ISO TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AT
EWN/OAJ. LOW STRATUS/FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW LEADING TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THUS WILL HOLD OFF
MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPING N/NW FLOW. INCREASED CONVERGENCE
INLAND ALONG A BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AN OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. BY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY INLAND AND LEAD TO FREQUENT REDUCTIONS OF
SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS. AREAS THAT GET RAINFALL WILL ALSO SEE
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 415 PM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AT WXFLOW SITES NEAR
RODANTHE AND NOS TIDE GAUGE AT OREGON INLET. EXPECT THESE GUSTS TO
25 KT TO BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH HAVE HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2-4 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH 15-20 KNOTS CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS, TO
10-20 KNOTS SOUTH. SW WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET, THOUGH THE SOUNDS
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. 12Z WAVEWATCH/LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A SERIES OF A LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
INLAND. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WITH SEAS APPROACHING 6 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE A SCA FOR
THE CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY,
THEN BEHIND AN INITIAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BECOME
NW/N BEFORE VEERING BACK TO S/SW THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN S/SW
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG


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