Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 040143
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
943 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT OVER NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS NOW PUSHING OFF TO
THE NE AS WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WILL LEAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT IN CASE ANY
WEAK PERTURBATION ON THE MID LEVEL FLOW CAN SPARK SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN A MOIST BNOUDARY LAYER, BUT
SUSPECT MOST AREAS WILL BE PRECIP FREE. SW WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPS
MAINLY IN UPR 70S COAST AND LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 725 PM FRIDAY...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR WILL OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION BECOMES LESS WIDESPREAD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND NARRE PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST MORE SOLID LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP UNDER
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION AFTER MIDNIGHT. IFR CEILINGS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOWER POTENTIAL.
THE LOW CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY BY AROUND SUNRISE AS SW
WINDS PICK UP IN WARM SECTOR WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY. WINDS GUSTS TO 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY...FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND
15-20 KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/JBM/HSA



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