Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KMHX 302323
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
723 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND REMAIN STATIONARY OVER
EASTERN NC FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A RAINY WEATHER PATTERN
RETURNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 PM WED...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY START TO
PIVOT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION
COLLOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SUFFICIENT DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT...EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH A BIT OF
THE EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. NOT TO MENTION A WELL
DEFINED PIEDMONT TROUGH USED TO TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED IN EASTERN NC AS THE BEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CALM AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY EASE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP WITH POSSIBLE INSOLATION
OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY MODIFY TEMP A BIT OVERNIGHT. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS
UP A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. LOWS IN THE MID 60S INLAND
TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM WED...MAINLY DRY ON THU. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
E-SE ALLOWING FOR AN ISO SHOWER/STORM TO DEVELOP ON INLAND
PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPR 80S AND NEAR
80 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WED...THUR NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE DRY...THOUGH
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO BRING IN SOME PRECIP AS EARLY AS
THE PRE DAWN HOURS FRI. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LOW POP FOR THE LATE
NIGHT PERIOD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH SHARPENING
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS LATE THUR NIGHT...WHILE
NAM/GFS HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI...THEREFORE ONLY SMALL CHANCE POPS
ADVERTISED.

ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS QUICKLY FRI AS LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS SHARPENS
TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER FLOW...ALLOWING FOR A RICH SUPPLY OF DEEP GULF/CARIBBEAN
MOISTURE TO TRAIN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. PWATS RISE TO 2
INCHES OR GREATER...WITH INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE COAST AND
FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE AREA IN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY
THE ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHICH WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION SO NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
AREA STILL IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET...AND
THEREFORE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WET AS THE
COASTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUE POPS IN THE
HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY RANGE. THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT NEXT
WEEK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING
INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK.

ECMWF/WPC QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THE LONG TERM ARE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE...AND AS HIGH AS 5 INCHES. WITH MUCH OF EASTERN NC HAVING
RECEIVED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...WITH PLACES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND CRYSTAL COAST AREAS
AT 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL...SO FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF THE FORECAST MATERIALIZES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM WED...VRF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM A
SYSTEM UPSTREAM WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE 3KFT. LIMITED
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS EVENING. GIVEN
RELATIVELY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS...MIGHT SEE SUB-VFR VSBYS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z- 12Z. ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
CLEAR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT
CU DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 PM WED... A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION FRI THROUGH THE
WEEKEND PUTTING E NC IN FAVORABLE REGIME FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM WED...SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT WITH WINDS SLOWLY VEERING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER OVERNIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT AND
THU NE-E 5-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM WED...THE FRONT OFFSHORE RETREATS WESTWARD AS A
COASTAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER
BRINGING THE TROUGH INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE
AMERICAN MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER...SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO
THE SOUTH LATER FRI. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING PERIODS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN FORM OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS THUR NIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SUB
SCA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/SK
NEAR TERM...JAC/LEP
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JAC/SK
MARINE...JAC/SK/LEP






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.