Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 251647
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1247 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES ARE
APPROACHING 70 DEGREES AREA-WIDE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST AS
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...DRY COLD FRONT.. ASSCTD WITH SFC AND UPR LOWS
MOVING FROM ERN CANADA TOWARD NEW ENGLAND..WILL APPROACH FROM NW
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE TIGHTER PRES GRAD ACROSS AREA
TONIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING WRLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NW LATE WITH
FROPA. ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH FRONT...BUT WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS INTO UPR 40S INLAND AND 50S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SAT...EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS MONDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR MIDWEEK...ENDING WITH
A TROF FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
AND TEMPS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY
WITH THIS ONE AND HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WIND
GUIDANCE INDICATES SPEEDS OF 4 T0 6 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT
THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. ALL AVAILABLE VSBY GUIDANCE AND LOCAL FOG
INDEX ALSO AGREE IN KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO FOG TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL APPROACH ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM SATURDAY...WINDS CONTINUE NNW/NW AT NOW 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
BACK TO A MORE W/SW DIRECTION TONIGHT AND INCREASE AS GRADIENT
AHEAD OF APPROACH COLD FRONT INCREASES...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVEHEIGHTS SHOULD
CONTINUE IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/
AS OF 3 AM SAT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS NORTH TO 10-15 KNOTS SOUTH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE OFF THE COAST WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...JBM/CTC/HSA






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