Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 280700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

High pressure will continue to move offshore tonight. A cold
front will approach from the northwest late tonight through
Wednesday, then stall across the area into the weekend.


As of 1000 PM Monday...Radar shows showers well to the west making
little progress east and expect precip will mainly hold off til
morn. Do expect some increase in mainly mid/high clouds overnight
with seasonal lows in the 70 to 75 degree range.


As of 230 PM Monday...Trend of slower moisture advection means
that widespread showers and thunderstorms should hold off until
the afternoon as the slow moving front enters eastern NC. Shear is
forecast to be weak lessening any severe threat but PW values are
expected to be in excess of 2" which would support torrential
downpours and the threat for minor poor drainage flooding in areas
that receive locally heavy rain. Will carry likely PoPs most
locations except for the Crystal Coast to the southern Outer Banks
where PoPs will be high chance. Highs will be in the lower to
middle 80s.


As of 3 am Tue...Unsettled weather expected through most of the
period with a stalled frontal boundary and broad troughing aloft.

Wednesday through Friday...Weak frontal boundary will remain
stalled across portions of the area into Thu night before pushing
back to the N/W. Boundary combined with broad troughing aloft,
shortwave energy and the seabreeze will provide enough support
for scattered convection each day, mainly diurnally driven. Isolated
strong pulse type thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon
and evening...but overall widespread svr threat looks low at this
time. Will continue chance pops during the day, and slight
chance/low chance overnight. Temps near climo with highs mid 80s
to around 90 and overnight lows in the upper 60s/mid 70s. Warmest
day looks like Friday with low level flow becoming S/SW.

Saturday through Monday...Unsettled weather continues into the
holiday weekend. Upper level flow becomes more zonal, but slow
moving front should provide enough of a focus combined with weak
upper level energy aloft to produce scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. Frontal boundary will remain north of the area
Saturday with warm moist SW flow. Scattered shower/tstm threat
continues, mainly diurnally driven. Boundary will then start to
slowly move southward late Sat night and Sunday as waves of low
pressure develop along it. Front will stall over the area Sunday
night into Monday, before finally pushing through the southern
zones by late Monday. High chance pops Sunday and Sunday night.
Capped at 50 percent right now...then have pops gradually tapering
off from north to south Monday as front moves south and high
pressure builds in to the north. At this time think the main
threat will be periods of heavy rain with PWAT values around 2
inches. Will trend towards WPC/ECMWF for now, pushing the front
through the entire cwa by late Monday with high pressure building
in behind it from the north. Model differences creep up later in
the period for early next week. Low level thickness values and
850mb temps support temps near normal, with highs in the mid 80s
to around 90 degrees and overnight lows in the upper 60/mid 70s.


Short Term /Through 06Z Wednesday/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...Current VFR conditions will continue
overnight with some increase in mid and high clouds, and possibly
scattered lower SCU with light southerly winds. Approaching
frontal boundary and short wave energy from NW will product
scattered to broken coverage of showers and tstms late morning
through afternoon likely affecting all TAF sites with periods of
sub-VFR. Precip expected to diminish this evening with VFR

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Any low clouds and fog should lift by mid-morning
Wednesday becoming VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected through the period, mainly diurnally driven...with
periods of sub-VFR possible. Patchy fog and stratus will be
possible each morning with moist boundary layer and light winds.


Short Term/Through Tuesday/...
As of 1000 PM Monday...Forecast looks good with no changes
planned...good boating conditions will cont.

Previous Discussion... High pressure will continue to move over
the western Atlantic as a cold front slowly approaches from the
west through Tuesday. Light southeast winds 10 KT or less will
veer to the south tonight and eventually SW Tuesday afternoon.
Speeds are forecast to increase to 10 to 15 KT Tuesday afternoon.
Seas will be 2 to 3 ft through the period.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Overall expect benign boating conditions into
the weekend. Weak frontal boundary will remain stalled across
Eastern NC into Thursday night, making wind directions tricky,
especially Wed. Winds generally 10 knots or less Wed with seas
2-4 feet early subsiding to 2-3 feet. Light NE winds early Thu
becoming SE 5-10 knots with seas 2-3 feet. Front will push N/W
late Thu and remain there into Saturday. S/SW winds 5-15 knots
Friday increasing to 10-15 knots Saturday with seas 2-4 feet.




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