Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 251705
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
105 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will sag into the region today with high
pressure building in from the north tonight and Wednesday. The
front will dissipate by Thursday with high pressure moving
offshore. Another cold front will move into the region Saturday
and stall along or off the coast into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1200 PM Tuesday...Dropped POPs and lowered max temps for
northern OBX this afternoon. No other significant changes with
update. Wind shift with cold front has pushed into northern
portions of area with lower dew points still upstream in SE VA
but expected to spread south this afternoon. Latest meso models
indicate convective development as boundary pushes south and
intersects with sea breeze over southern and central sections
this afternoon but no activity north of Oregon Inlet. N-NE winds
will keep max temps around 80 for northern OBX as well, rest of
area on track for around 90 to lower 90s.

/Previous discussion/
As of 650 AM Tuesday...The surface cold front was located from
southeast Virginia southwest into western NC early this morning.
Ahead of the front widespread high clouds were streaming into
the area from the west. Could see a few pop up showers this
morning especially near the coast. This afternoon strong heating
will lead to destabilization of the atmosphere while the
surface cold front moves into the region during peak heating.
The result will be the development of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Weak mid level lapse rates and shear will
significantly lessen the severe weather threat but cell mergers
and boundary interactions could lead to an isolated pulse severe
storm or two with a damaging wind gust. Highs in the 90s and
dewpoints in the 70s will lead to heat indices near 100 again
this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 650 AM Tuesday...The cold front is actually expected to
pass south of the area late tonight with a cooler and drier NE
flow developing in the wake of the boundary. Ongoing convective
activity will weaken from north to south overnight. Lows will
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s inland to the mid 70s
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...Minimal rain chances Wednesday into
Thursday with the cold front south of the region and high
pressure ridging in from the north. The high moves offshore with
southerly return flow bringing a warming trend for Thursday into
Friday. Another cold front will approach the area Friday and
move across the area Saturday bringing a good chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the region. The front will stall along
or off the coast through the weekend and into early next week.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Models are trending drier for
Wednesday with the front pushing well south of the area and high
pressure ridging in from the north. Far southern area may see
some lingering showers in the morning but generally expect dry
conditions across most of the region with dry conditions
continuing Wednesday night. Temps will be a few degrees below
normal with highs in the mid/upper 80s most areas, warmest SW
sections. Onshore winds will bring coolest temps to the northern
OBX with highs holding in the lower 80s. Lows expected in the
low to mid 70s and may see a few upper 60s in coolest locations.

Thursday and Thursday night...A robust shortwave will dig
across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio River Valley with an
attendant sfc low pressure beginning to move into the mid-
Atlantic states late in the period. High pressure ridging in
from the north will move off the mid-Atlantic coast Thursday
with southerly return flow developing across the region bringing
a warming trend to the area. Models keep the area dry much of
the period but could see a few showers develop along the coast
and may also see storms move in from the west as upper level
dynamics improve with the approaching shortwave late Thursday
night. Highs expected around 90 inland to mid 80s along the
coast with lows mainly in the mid 70s inland to upper 70s coast.

Friday through Monday...Robust shortwave energy moves across
the region Friday into Saturday while low pressure moves off the
mid-Atlantic coast Friday with the trailing cold front progged
to move across the area early Saturday. Descent instability and
shear expected to exist across the region ahead of the front
Friday with favorable upper level dynamics and could see strong
to severe storms across the region. The front is forecast to
stall offshore late Saturday into Sunday but then move back
toward the coast early next week. An upper trough will persist
across the east coast into early next week as well with the axis
west of the area with S/SW flow lifting abundant moisture
across the area.

Confidence in the forecast details is low to this period as
models have not been consistent with timing of system moving
into the area as well as how far the front will push offshore
this weekend. 00z models have trended a bit faster moving the
upper system through Saturday and push the front farther
offshore which subsequently dries things out faster Saturday and
also keeps most of the precip offshore Saturday night through
Sunday night. Have trended PoPs down this period but may need to
be lowered further if model continue to keep the front and
moisture offshore. 00z models in a bit better agreement with
shortwave energy moving through the upper trough and lifting
across the region early next week with the sfc front
retrograding back into the region bringing better chances for
showers and thunderstorms as we move into Monday.

Strong SW flow persists Friday ahead of the front bringing warm
temps with highs in the lower 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along
the coast. Temps a few degrees below normal expected this
weekend into early next week with highs generally in the mid 80s
but onshore flow may hold the northern OBX in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions are expected through
tomorrow afternoon. A stray thunderstorm will be possible near
KEWN or KOAJ later this afternoon. A cold front has moved south
over most of the state, and winds are mostly calm right now,
but should begin to blow out of the N/NE later this afternoon.
Some patchy clouds around 2500 ft are possible overnight with NE
winds, but the chances for ceilings at this level appear to be
low at this time. Another mostly sunny day is expected Wednesday
with light winds.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 430 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions expected Wednesday
and Thursday with mainly dry conditions expected much of the
period, though may see a few lingering showers with sub-VFR
conditions across southern rtes into Wednesday morning. Also
cannot rule out patchy late night/early morning fog. A robust
system is expected to move into the region Friday with an
associated cold front moving into the region early Saturday
which will bring showers and thunderstorms with period of sub-
VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 1200 PM Tuesday...Winds and seas have diminished, allowing
SCA to expire for central waters. Wind shift with cold front has
pushed to near HAT-Pamlico River line and will continue slow
southward push this afternoon with N-NE 10-15 KT surge expected
for northern waters. Rest of forecast on track.

/Previous discussion/
As of 650 AM...Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue
over the central waters this morning with SW flow 15 to 20 kt
and 4 to 6 ft seas. Conditions will continue to improve this
morning with winds diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas will
gradually subside below 6 ft by 11 AM.

As a cold front slowly moves south through the waters today and
tonight, winds will shift to N/NE around 15 kt behind it
beginning over the northern waters by late this morning, over
the central waters by late this afternoon, and finally over the
southern waters by late this evening. Seas will be mainly 3 to 4
feet from late this morning through tonight.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 5 AM Tuesday...A cold front will be south of the area
Wednesday with high pressure ridging in from the north and
expect NE winds around 10-15 kt through the day with seas 3-4 ft
across the northern waters and 2-3 ft south. High pressure moves
off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night and Thursday with
winds diminishing to 10 kt or less Wednesday night and veering
to SE to S Thursday afternoon with seas around 2-3 ft. A cold
front will approach from the NW Friday with winds becoming SW
around 10-15 kt Thursday night and 15-25 kt Friday into Friday
night with seas expected to build to 3-6 ft. Models differ some
on the strength SW flow but there will be a good chance of SCA
conditions developing across portions of the waters by Friday
and continuing into Friday night. The front is progged to move
across the waters early Saturday with a NE surge around 10-20 kt
developing and seas around 3-5 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/SGK
MARINE...JME/JBM/SK



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