Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 171602
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1202 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 12 PM THURS...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE A
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER
THE OBX. WITH THICKNESS INCREASING TODAY...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND AND
MID/UPPER 50S ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM THURS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OVER
WEATHER TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW TEMPS WILL NOT
BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE IN THE 40S INLAND AND
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 615 AM THU...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SW
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. APPROACHING UPR TRF WILL LEAD TO LOW PRES
DEVELOPING OVER THE NE GULF OF MEX LATE BUT THINK BULK OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF THRU THE DAY. THE UPR TRF WILL
CUTOFF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH SFC LOW PRES MOVING SLOWLY ENE TO OUR
SOUTH. CONT TO LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF AS NAM LOOKS LIKE A DRY OUTLIER
AND GFS LOOKS TOO FAST AND POSS WET. 00Z ECMWF IS SIGNIF WETTER THAN
PREV RUNS AND NOW HAVE LIKELY POPS S TO CHC N LATER FRI NIGHT THRU
SAT AS MOISTURE SPREADS NE INTO THE REGION. AS THE LOW DRIFTS
FURTHER E SAT NIGHT INTO SUN RAIN SHLD GRAD END FROM W TO E.
WEAKENING HIGH PRES WL BUILD E OVER THE REGION THRU MON WITH DRY
WEATHER. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW TUE AND CROSS TUE
NIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF FROM THIS
FROPA...LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC. HIGH PRES WILL GRAD BUILD IN FROM
THE NW WED WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

HIGHS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND NE
FLOW. NE WINDS COULD BE RATHER GUSTY ALONG THE CST ESPCLY LATER SAT
AS GRADIENT IS PINCHED BETWEEN LOW TO THE S AND HIGH TO THE N. SHLD
SEE MORE SUN ON SUNDAY AS STACKED LOW DRIFTS E WITH SOME LOWER 70S
INLAND. HGTS RISE IN WAKE OF UPR LOW MON AND HIGHS SHLD CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND TO 60S CST. TUE AND WED WILL BE AOA NORMAL
WITH HIGHS 75 TO 80 INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT & THU/
AS OF 715 AM THURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE AND INCREASE TO 15 KTS
GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS AFTER 12Z. SOUNDING MODELS ARE INDICATING AN
INCREASE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS
TO START WILL START TO INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST APPROX 14Z AND
SLOWLY SPREADING TO THE INLAND TAF SITES (PGV AND ISO) APPROX BY
00Z. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AS MODELS
HAVE A WIDESPREAD. ALSO...MODELS ARE INDICATING CEILING HEIGHTS
REDUCING TO IFR...BUT AT THIS TIME KEPT CONDITIONS SCT.


LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR FRI WITH ANY CIGS MAINLY
ABOVE 3000 FT. AS RAIN SPREADS NE INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
EXPECT REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES ESPCLY SRN TIER WHERE BEST CVRG OF
RAIN EXPECTED. AS LOW PRES DRIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE TO THE S SUNDAY
AND MON EXPECT MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING
OCNL MVFR CIGS NEAR CST WITH CONT NE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 12 PM THURS...N TO NE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MARINE
ZONES AT 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. NO CHANGES FOR THE
EARLY AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

PREV DISC...LATEST BUOY OBS CONTINUES TO INDICATE N/NE 15-20
GUSTING UP TO 27 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 9 NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 3
TO 6 SOUTH. WITH THE PERSISTENT NE 20-25 KNOT WIND FLOW CONTINUING
TODAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED AROUND 7 TO 8 FT FOR THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS INCREASING TO 8 TO 9 FT THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERN WATERS 4 TO 6 FT INCREASING 7 FT IN THE OUTER WATER. SCA
WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT NEUSE PAMLICO...AND PUNGO
RIVERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN NEW ENGLAND AND THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THIS WEEKEND IN
THE OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE WATERS. ELSEWHERE ADVISORIES WILL
EXPIRE AS SEAS SUBSIDE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THU...STRONG HIGH PRES EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS FRI
WILL MAINTAIN NNE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS NEAR THE CST. AS LOW PRES
SLIDES ENE TO THE S SAT INTO SUN EXPECT THE GUSTY NNE WINDS TO CONT
POSS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS OUTER WATERS. THE NE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH MON AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES WEAKENS
AS IT BUILDS TOWARD CST. THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED THRU THE PERIOD WITH SCA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS CONT THRU
MON. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8 TO 10 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE SAT
THRU SUNDAY. THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FT LATER MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...HSA/BM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/BM
MARINE...HSA/BM/RF





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