Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 302301
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
701 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...RAIN IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE. THE
COLD FRONT IS CROSSING RALEIGH NOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH QUICKLY THEREAFTER
ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...MCLR SKIES EXPECTED TUE WITH DRY AIRMASS
OVER REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND HIGH PRES TO THE S...GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED MOST
AREAS. WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO 60S
BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM MON...DEEP TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND FLAT
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WEAK VORT MAX WILL DRAG A FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WITH NAM BEING
MUCH SLOWER THAN ECMWF/GFSENS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD FASTER SOLUTION
IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF ENERGY OR
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. NORTHERLY
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 5 TO
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS EXPECTING TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 80 ON FRIDAY.

NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME SPREAD IN
THE MODELS EVIDENT BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES OF
THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY SMALL WITH ALL MODELS BRINGING IT THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK KINK IN UPPER FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...SO HAVE BROUGHT POPS DOWN A BIT. MOST OF THE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR HIGHEST POPS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY IN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 204 PM MON...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...IF ANY
OCCUR MAY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 645 PM MONDAY...ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT IS STILL TO THE
WEST...THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO BE RELAXING A BIT. SO HAVE BROUGHT
WINDS DOWN A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. GIVEN LACK OF OBS...WAVE HEIGHT IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY. BUT
BASED ON SURROUNDING BUOY OBS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA...DID NOT MODIFY PREVIOUS FORECAST. SO STILL SCA CRITERIA
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS WITH SEAS AROUND 4 TO 8 FEET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONCE FRONT CROSSES WILL SEE W WINDS REMAIN
A BIT GUSTY BUT SHLD BE DIMINISHING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES
QUICKLY BUILDS TO THE S. LIGHT WINDS TUE MORN WILL BECOME SW AND
INCREASE RAPIDLY TUE AFTN WITH SCA SPEEDS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS AND POSS ALL WTRS IN GUSTS. SINCE CURRENTLY
HAVE SCA UP WILL WAIT TIL IT COMES DOWN BEFORE INTRODUCING NEW SCA
FOR LATE TOMM. SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET CSTL WTRS LATE TODAY WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST PART OF TUE. AS
WINDS RAMP UP TUE AFTN SEAS WILL BUILD BACK TO AROUND 6 FT OUTER
CNTRL AND SRN WTRS LATE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 PM MON...COLD FRONT TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT INCREASING
WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FEET. WIND
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS
CONTINUING ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES WILL SEE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS
THURSDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION EXPECTED THURSDAY
EVENING. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 245 PM MON...INCREASED FIR DANGER TUE AFTN FOR ALL BUT OBX AS
SW WINDS GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AND HUMIDITIES DROP TO 25 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/LEP
MARINE...CCG/RF/LEP
FIRE WEATHER...RF



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