Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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032
FXUS62 KMHX 110220
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
920 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CONTINUE OVER THE EXTREME EAST AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS EXPECTED
BY 06Z. PATCHY CIRRUS WILL STREAK ACROSS THE SKY AT TIMES BUT
EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A BRISK WESTERLY
WIND. EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING, THE
AIRMASS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IS COLD AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS WITH READINGS 20 TO 25 DEGREES EXPECTED
INLAND AND UPPER 20S BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...DESPITE SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST 2-METER TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER. UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH MANY SPOTS REMAINING
IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS MOVING INTO EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY WEATHER FRIDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA...ACCOMPANIED BY ~125KT
JETSTREAK FRIDAY...LEADING TO RE-AMPLIFYING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF U.S. AND BRINGING EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHILE A SFC LOW DEVELOP/STRENGTHENS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST. CURRENT CHALLENGE ARE THE LATEST
MODELS NOT BEING CONSISTENT. 10/12Z NAM FORECASTING SOUNDING
SOUNDINGS INDICATES SATURATION IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION WITH A
SLIGHT WARM NOSE...ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES...WITH POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX; SLEET AND POSSIBLE
-FZRA FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND -SN FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
MEANWHILE...10/12Z GFS FORECASTING SOUNDING HAS A STRONGER WARM NOSE
AND LESS SATURATED IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE REGION THAN THE 12Z NAM.
BOTH 10/12Z GFS AND 10/12Z ECMWF HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG TO THE COUNTIES ALONG SOUNDS...MAINLY NORTHERN
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUND. PLUS, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC
PROBABILISTIC WINTER GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE HAVE INCREASED AND
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR FRIDAY FORECAST. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WEST OF
HWY 17 WITH A WINTRY MIX TO THE SOUTH...THEN SNOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OF HWY 70 IN THE AFTERNOON...MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL
BE MAINLY A MIX OF -RA/-SN.


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BRINGING EVEN
COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION.VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET BY SUNDAY BTW -15C TO -20C WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING
INTO THE 1225-1240M RANGE. THIS WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH HIGH STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING ON SUNDAY.
SATURDAY`S HIGHS...MID 30S/UPPER 30S AND SUNDAY`S HIGHS IN THE UPPER
20S/LOW 30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS...MID/UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BOTH
SATURDAY SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES
IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEVELOPING A SFC LOW DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE BEST
CHANCES WITH PRECIP. PRECIP COULD BEGIN AS -RA/-SN MIX MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN. THE SFC LOW WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN NC TUESDAY
NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
40S MONDAY... IN THE LOW 50S TUESDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH BASED CUMULUS CEILINGS EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL CLEAR BY 06Z WITH CLEAR SKIES THEN PREVAILING THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE
REGION. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AGAIN OF 15 TO 20 KT
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY FRIDAY AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS/STRENGTHS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...BRINGING THE THREAT OF MIX WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS RETURNS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
AS OF 920 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES. WESTERLY BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SPEEDS AGAIN 20 TO 30 KT...SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED FROM LAST NIGHTS 10 FT LEVELS BUT
WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-7 FOOT RANGE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
WINDS INCREASE. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILT TO THE NORTH...MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP/STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW TO NE 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT FRIDAY.
WINDS AND SEA WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SFC LOW AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/PAMLICO SOUND. NW WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JME/CTC/BM
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



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