000
FXUS62 KMHX 200506
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
106 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS INLAND. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK AND MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...CONVECTION S OF OF CAPE LOOKOUT CONTINUES
BUT IS WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. NO CHANGE IN POPS. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE HIGHER POPS OVER THE CRYSTAL COAST AND
PAMLICO SOUND.

PREV DISC...EASTERN NC REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. PW VALUES WILL BE INCREASING TO >1.5"
OVERNIGHT WHICH INDICATES THAT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT FORM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECTING MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 DEGREES BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ON
MONDAY AND COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES...THE STAGE IS SET FOR A RATHER WET DAY ON
MONDAY. POPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY AREA-WIDE WITH
QPF TOTALS OF UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE BUT LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER GIVEN
SLOW STORM MOTIONS GIVEN A VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AS ANY BRIEF SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM START IN THE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 154 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING
THROUGH AND COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. PWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR SO WILL HAVE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH CONTINUE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN A
LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH INCREASING POPS STARTING
THURSDAY. MODELS BRINGING FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. GOOD DRYING AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES EXPECTED ON 06Z UPDATE. WILL
CONTINUE FORECAST FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 09Z THEN INDICATE MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AND CONTG THROUGH ABT 15Z. PROBABILITY IS
HIGHER FOR LOW CEILINGS THAN LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG THIS MORN.
SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS BUT DIFFICULT
DETERMINE THE TIMING SO WILL LIKELY STICK TO VCTS/CB IN THE TAFS
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 157 PM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION. LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE A CONTINUED THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM MONDAY...NO SIG CHANGES ON UPDATE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KT TODAY WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SCT-NMRS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TODAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 201 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE WATERS.
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK TO KEEP
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JAC/CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/JAC/JME
MARINE...CGG/JAC/CTC/JME