Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 302239
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
639 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SPRAWLING BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM
THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST MID WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 640 PM SAT...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER DUPLIN COUNTY
HAVE DISSIPATED. WILL SEND UPDATED PUBLIC ZONES SHORTLY TO REMOVE
ALL MENTION OF EVENING SHOWERS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER, WHICH SHOULD YIELD ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR
THE GULF STREAM AND MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BUT
KEEP DRY ELSEWHERE. WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT TEMPS AGAIN WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM SATURDAY...SIMILAR SETUP TO SUNDAY AS THE SUMMERLIKE
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO E NC.
HAVE ADDED A 20 POP FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AS WEAK
CONVERGENCE OCCURS WITH INLAND PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STILL ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO PROHIBIT THUNDER HOWEVER AS
WEAK CAPPING EXISTS. TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AND MAY EVEN
RISE A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER...MID/UPR 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S
BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE AND ONLY
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SUN NIGHT-TUE PERIOD AND BELOW NORMAL
CONFIDENCE REST OF PERIOD. KEPT DRY FCST FOR SUN NIGHT AND LOWERED
POPS MON AND MON NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS IN 40-50% RANGE TUE INTO
WED...THEN TRENDED POPS TOWARD CLIMO 20-30% REST OF PERIOD.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER UPR LOW MOVEMENT SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE RESULTING IN SLOWER SFC FRONT MOVEMENT. MAIN
DIFFERENCE REST OF PERIOD WITH GFS INDICATING UPR LOW OPENING UP
AND GRADUALLY MOVING E ACROSS AREA NEXT WEEKEND WITH SFC
CYCLOGENESIS OFF FLA-NC COAST. ECMWF KEEPS UPR LOW CUT OFF AND
PUSHES IT S-SE INTO ERN GULFMEX FRI-SAT IN RESPONSE TO UPR RIDGING
UPSTREAM. USED A COMPROMISE SOLUTION WITH THINKING OF SFC FRONT
GRADUALLY MOVING INTO AREA TUE-WED...THEN STALLING NEAR COAST AND
BECOMING DIFFUSE FRI-SAT. THIS SUPPORTS BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE-WED WITH A SCT MAINLY DIURNAL THREAT THU-SAT.

MON LIKELY TO BE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 INLAND. HIGHS
MAINLY LOW-MID 80S TUE-WED WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND BETTER PCPN
THREAT...THEN WARMING A FEW DEGS END OF WEEK. LOWS MAINLY 60S
INLAND TO AROUND 70 COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SAT...SETUP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING BKN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. WILL TWEAK CURRENT TERMINAL FORECASTS
TO REFLECT THIS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MON MORNING WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM THE
E-NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MON AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE
AREA TUE-WED RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE AFTN INTO WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM SAT...LATEST OBS INDICATE SE WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 3 TO 4 FT. HIGH
PRES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WATERS WITH SE TO S WINDS 5 TO
15 KT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IV IN GOOD
AGREEMENT INDICATING SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4-5 FT SEAS
ALONG THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT DUE
TO 9 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD SWELLS RADIATING WEST AWAY FROM WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...MODERATE FCST CONFIDENCE INTO TUE...THEN
BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE WED-THU DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND FRONT APPROACHING FROM W-NW EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SOUTHERLY FLOW 10-15 KT SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. FRONT THEN EXPECTED TO
STALL NEAR COAST WED-THU WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND
LOCATION. FCST WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PERIOD OF NE WINDS AROUND
10 KT LATE WED INTO EARLY THU...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. SEAS
MAINLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT HEIGHTS OUTER PORTIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...HSA/TL/JBM
MARINE...HSA/TL/JBM



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