Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KMHX 021522
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1022 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM MON...CLEARING LINE STEADILY WORKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSTATE REGION AT PRESENT. VISIBILITIES ARE
SLOWLY COMING UP BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK.

FOR TODAY...REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH E NC LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH FORCING OR MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE
THE INHERITED 20 POP FROM GRIDS. ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT AFTER AROUND NOON TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS COLUMN DRIES. BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALS AND MO CLOUDY SKIES FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY...
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S (LOW 50S NE TO UPPER 50S SW).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO START THE
NIGHT AS TRANSITORY HIGH SCOOTS BY TO THE NORTH. MUCH DRIER AIR
MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S. TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT BEFORE LEVELLING OFF AND THEN RISING TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
INC ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AND INC MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEK AS TRANSIENT SYSTEMS IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURE WILL BRING SPRINGLIKE
WARMTH DURING MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP AND
COLD ON THURSDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE NORTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PATCHY TO PERHAPS WIDEPSREAD LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY TRAVERSES THE AREA INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF
UNTIL SURFACE WARNS ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY P
TYPE ISSUES ALTHOUGH THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WEDGE INLAND RETARDS THE FRONTAL
PROGRESS UNTIL EVENING. THUS THE IMMEDIATE COAST COULD MAKE INTO
THE 60S LATE WHILE DEEPER INLAND LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINALLY MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE WEDGE ERODES WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING INTO
THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THUS WILL NEED TO FORECAST A NON
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CYCLE WITH TUESDAYS "HIGHS" LIKELY TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHTS "LOWS" AS THE WARM SECTOR SURGES NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN NC.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES (FOR
A CHANGE) ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING ONSHORE BREEZES. COULD SEE SEA FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTH
FACING COASTLINES WHICH COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH RAIN CHANCES TO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WED NIGHT AS AN ANA FRONT TYPE PRECIP REGIME SETS UP BEHIND THE
INCOMING SFC BNDRY.

THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE SPEED OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. THE
GFS IS CONSIDERED TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT MAKING IT TO THE CRYSTAL
COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY WHILE THE NAM IS CONSIDERED TOO SLOW WITH
THE FRONT STILL WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF
WAS THE COMPROMISE CHOICE WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW ZONES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AS THE
FRONT MOVES THRU AND BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE
REGION. THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR A CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING
LATER THU AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE A LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET. TOO EARLY TO GET INTO MUCH DETAIL ABOUT
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS AS YET BUT PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MOVING THRU
QUICKLY WHICH WOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS.

PRECIP ENDS LATE THU/THU EVENING FROM NW TO SE, WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AREA INTO SATURDAY. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S SATURDAY/SUNDAY. LOWS THU AND FRIDAY WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 20S.
THE FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH A
LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE (GFS DRY/ECMWF WETTER). WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNTIL PERIOD COMES INTO
BETTER FOCUS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUN...VSBYS SLOWLY COMING UP BUT LIFR/IFR CIGS
PERSISTING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR LATE MORNING THEN FINALLY VFR BY AROUND NOON. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING
NORTH 10KT POSSIBLY GUSTING A LITTLE HIGHER. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT NE WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE AREA WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY TUESDAY THEN A WARM FRONT WILL
RETREAT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA WITH PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FORECAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE THU. GOOD
CVRG OF RAIN WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING
LATE...POSS MIXED WITH SOME SNOW OR SLEET INLAND. SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARE A GOOD BET LATER WED NIGHT AND MUCH OF THU. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A RETURN TO PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM MON. CURRENT OBS SHOWING SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WITH A WSW
WIND 10 TO 15 KT. MAINTAINING DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10AM FOR
ALL WATERS AS VSBYS RANGING GENERALLY 1/2 TO 2 MILES. FOR
TODAY...THE WSW WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND INC
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT A NORTHERLY SURGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND RIGHT NOW ALL BUT ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE RIVERS
SHOULD SEE SCA DEVELOPING. HRRR AND NSSL WRF INDICATE ENOUGH OF A
SURGE TO PRODUCE SCA WIND GUSTS EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND BEGINNING
AROUND 18Z. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER NE AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT...WITH VARIOUS SCA HEADLINES ENDING AROUND 9Z AS SEAS TAKE
A BIT LONGER TO RESPOND TO DIMINISHING WINDS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH TUE MORN
THEN BEGIN TO RAMP UP FROM THE S LATE TUE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS N
THRU THE AREA. SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TUE THEN BUILD BACK UP TO
4 TO 6 FT BY TUE EVENING HIGHEST FAR OUTER CNTRL WTRS. GUSTY SSW
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUE NIGHT AND CONT WED AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 9 FEET OUTER WTRS WED. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THU WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY, LEADING TO GUSTY N WINDS THU WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 9
FEET. WINDS/SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES
LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/JME
MARINE...HSA/TL/JME



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.