Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 190212
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1012 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM SAT...TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING...ONE
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND THE SECOND APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE WEST. LATE EVENING UPDATE ZONES WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS THROUGH 06Z FOR THESE AREAS. CONTINUED WARM
TEMPS TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM SAT...A WET DAY IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN NC ON SUNDAY.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE SAGGED THROUGH E NC BY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
APPROACHING PVA WILL BRING UPPER SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO
BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE DAY. THINK
THAT SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT BY MID MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN/CRYSTAL COAST VCNTY...THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE AN INC POP TREND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE AN EMBEDDED TS OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY STEADILY INCREASES THOUGH WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
UNTIL LATER SUN EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE TO E IN THE
MORNING...VEERING TO SE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...WET AND STORMY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...PLEASANT BY MID TO LATE WEEK...

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LIFT...UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. POPS ARE CATEGORICAL SUNDAY
NIGHT...TAPERING OFF BY MONDAY MORNING AS DRY SLOTTING OCCURS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING. THIS DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
SOLAR HEATING AND HIGH INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LI VALUES
OF -6 TO -8 AND CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. WHILE FORCING WILL BE
VERY LIMITED...AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS WELL WEST OVER THE
PIEDMONT...THINK THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG/SVR STORMS
OVER OUR FAR WESTERN CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
PRIMARILY IN AREAS TO OUR WEST. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS INLAND TO
SLIGHT CHANCE COAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER WARM
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S MONDAY...HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW 80S INLAND AND MID 70S BEACHES.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVING IN. TUESDAY`S HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS DOWN IN THE LOWER 50S BY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD WITH
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. COOL MORNING LOWS AROUND 50 REBOUND
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WHILE THE GFS HAS SOME LIGHT QPF. HAVE
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IN BETTER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HAVE KEPT THURSDAY DRY. ANOTHER COOL
MORNING THURSDAY WITH LOWS 50 TO 55...REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER
70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SUNNY
PLEASANT WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. LOWS AGAIN IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE
RANGE WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S FAR NORTHEAST AND LOW/MID 70S
ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES
LATE SATURDAY. HAVE INDICATED INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE FIRST THREE
QUARTERS OF THE TAF PD. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. BKN MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE FG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...THOUGH ANY BREAKS IN CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO
PATCHY FG DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS ATTM. FOR
SUNDAY...APPROACHING ENERGY AND LIFTING WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS WILL
ALSO LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER...MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES MONDAY MORNING...BUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY KPGV AND KISO LATE
MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM SAT...NE WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS/SOUNDS IN
THE 5-10 KT RANGE AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...EXCEPT NEAR 5 FT VCNTY OF
DIAMOND SHOALS. EXPECT THESE LIGHT NE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WEAK FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF THE WATERS. FOR
SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND WINDS WILL
VEER AROUND TO THE SE AND INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE
HOISTED SCA FOR ALL WATERS AS WINDS/SEAS RESPOND TO THE TIGHTENING
SW PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SEAS BUILD ABOVE 6 FT BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS TO AS HIGH
AS 7 TO 8 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND CURRENT SCA FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...MUCH MORE TRANQUIL
BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WINDS GENERALLY W/NW 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA/TL/CTC
MARINE...HSA/TL/CTC


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