Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 242258

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
658 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
Friday night producing above normal temperatures. Weak low
pressure will approach from the south Saturday through Monday.


As of 7 PM Tuesday...Forecast in fine shape. No changes to make.
Bermuda High setting up as ridging aloft moves into the area. This
will mean clear and calm conditions overnight. Good radiational
cooling will help drop temps into the low 60s inland with mid 60s
along the OBX.


As of 3 PM Tuesday...Above normal temps in store as the the H5
ridge builds into the region. Given this and the Bermuda High in
place, this will translate into increasing thickness under sunny
skies and warm SW flow allowing temps to climb into the mid/upper


As of 305 PM Tuesday...Warm and dry weather will prevail through
the end of the week, then unsettled conditions as low pressure
develops off the Georgia/South Carolina coast and meanders to our
south into early next week.

Wednesday night through Friday night...Rising upper level heights
coupled with surface high pressure lingering off the Carolina
coast will lead to warm and dry conditions through the remainder
of the work week. Numerical guidance shows high temperatures well
into the 80s Thursday and Friday with lower 80s Outer Banks. Skies
will be generally clear with dewpoints remaining in the 60s
through the period as we finally appear to be transitioning into
late Spring weather.

Saturday through Tuesday...Better agreement amongst the GFS/ECMWF
and Canadian showing surface low pressure forming off the GA/SC
border. Given very weak mid-level flow...the low will basically
meander to our south for a few days. Moisture increases with low
PoPs returning to the immediate coast late Friday night and over
all areas Saturday into Tuesday. In conjunction with neighorboring
offices and uncertainty...have kept Pops generally in the 30-40
percent range through the period. With the increased cloud
coverage, expecting a small diurnal temperatures variation through
this period with lows generally upper 60s to around 70 and highs
around 80 degrees.


Short Term /Through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 7 PM Tuesday...VFR conditions expected through the short
term. Skies should be clear and winds will be out of the SW around
10 knots with less wind overnight. There could be some patchy fog
again at OAJ but confidence is low at this it was not
included in the TAF.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 305 PM Tuesday...High pressure along the southeast coast
coupled with ridging aloft will lead to VFR conditions with mostly
clear skies Wednesday night through Friday/Friday night. As
usual...there could be brief patches of early morning fog, but
overall impact will be minimal. Longer range guidance still
indicates low pressure forming off the GA/SC coast by the weekend
with an increase in low-level moisture and precipitation by
Saturday. This could result in periods of sub-VFR conditions in


Short Term /Through Wednesday/...
As of 7 PM Tuesday...Pleasant boating conditions through the
period as High pressure shifts off the southeast coast. Expect
southwest flow through the period, 10-15kts with seas 3 to 4 feet
through tonight and eventually subsiding to 2 to 3 feet Wednesday.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 305 PM Tuesday...High pressure at the surface and aloft will
help maintain SE/S winds at generally 10 knots or less with seas
2-3 feet Wednesday night through Friday. Good agreement with
longer range models showing surface low pressure forming off the
GA/SC coast and meandering to our south into early next week with
very weak mid-level flow. Latest local SWAN model and Wavewatch
shows seas building to 6 feet over the far southern waters late
Friday night then increasing elsewhere through Saturday as long
fetch energy overtakes the coast around the surface low to the
south. At this point, winds look at stay at 15 knots or less as
best winds stay well to our south per current model projections.





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