529
FXUS63 KMPX 120040
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
740 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and muggy tomorrow with strong to severe thunderstorms
  expected. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
  possible.

- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather is expected to end the
  week with precip chances returning Saturday.

- Chances for precip with warmer temperatures look to continue
  through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Rain from this morning has cleared the area as of early this
afternoon with cloud cover going with it. Rainfall amounts were
generally around 0.1-0.25" across the area. Some diurnal Cu has
popped up across central and western Minnesota, but expecting very
little in the way of redevelopment of showers and storms this
evening due to very little instability. Tomorrow will be a very
different story. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected during
the afternoon, but there are still some questions when it comes to
the timing and coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion,
CAMs are highlighting some early morning elevated convection as a 35-
40kt LLJ noses into southwestern Minnesota. How this plays out will
likely impact tomorrow afternoon`s severe chances. That being said,
we look to recover by the afternoon with daytime heating and strong
WAA and moisture being advected in from the southwest. A shortwave
will kick through central Minnesota during the early afternoon with
a strong cold front expected to follow during the evening into the
overnight hours. Current thinking is that the earlier morning
convection will continue/restrengthen with the shortwave in the
early afternoon, with an area of strong to severe thunderstorms
across southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. A cold front back
across the Dakotas and far western Minnesota will be the focus for
another round of storms later in the afternoon, likely further north
across central Minnesota. Ahead of this front, MLCAPE values of 1500-
2500 J/kg will build in as dew points climb into the the mid to
upper 60s. All severe modes are possible with both rounds of storms.
Hodographs look supportive of tornadoes during the later afternoon
and evening hours before storms likely grow upscale and turn to more
of a damaging wind threat.

Thursday and Friday will be cooler and drier behind the front before
precip chances ramp up again late Friday night. A cutoff low over
the southwest CONUS is expected to move into the Central Plains with
another surge of moisture streaming northward. PWs on Saturday will
surpass 1.6"-1.8", setting the stage for a heavy rain threat. Sunday
will be hot and humid as we find ourselves in the warm sector of
this system, but shower chances will be lower than on Saturday.
Continued chances for showers and storms are expected through the
first half of next week with multiple shortwaves moving along the
top of a ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 733 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions overnight, but showers and thunderstorms will
impact the TAF sites at times on Wednesday. There is high
confidence that an area of showers will move in from South
Dakota early Tuesday morning. There is a chance that it could
produce thunder. Confidence is lower the rest of the day, but
this area of precipitation will become more intense by late
morning and could produce severe weather during the afternoon
and into the evening. There is also a chance for multiple
rounds, which is why confidence is low in the timing.

KMSP...
This is lower confidence forecast for KMSP. There is uncertainty
with when the morning showers will arrive at KMSP, and if there
will be thunder. Once they move out, there is potential for a
second round of storms later in the day. Timing should become
more apparent by the 12Z TAF issuance, but for now the potential
remains for a long window of TSRA.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind NW 10G20 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind VRBL at 5 kts.
SAT...RA/TSRA/MVFR likely, IFR possible. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JRB