Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 261049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
549 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Rainfall overnight has finally shifted to the east and southeast
of west central and south central Minnesota. In addition,
regional radar has shown the heaviest rainfall shifting across far
southeast Minnesota and into southern Wisconsin.

Earlier tonight, a persistent band of heavy rainfall moved along
the I-90 corridor where the best theta-e axis and moisture
convergence were maximized. Local airport reports, and several
private weather sensor had between 3 and 4 inches of rain that
fell between Truman, Winnebago and Wells through 3 am. Another
area of heavier rainfall occurred in west central Minnesota prior
to midnight where both strong forcing at mid levels, and upper
level support from a developing short wave, moved across South

This short wave will be the focus of additional light rain across
southeastern Minnesota this morning. In addition to this short
wave, a weak circulation that was noted on regional radar in
central Minnesota this morning. This circulation is expected to
pivot to the east-southeast and focus additional light rainfall
along and north- northeast of this circulation. Elsewhere across
Minnesota, and due to a persistent moist boundary layer, once the
steady rainfall ends, occasional light drizzle will occur.

Due to cloudy skies and a cool east-northeast wind, temperatures
will likely hold or only rise a few degrees from morning lows. The
warmest temperatures, near 50 degrees, will occur in far west
central and south central Minnesota.

Clouds and fog may linger overnight, especially in eastern
Minnesota and west central Wisconsin where the cyclonic
circulation remains. Elsewhere, and if skies clear, dense fog may

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Thursday through Saturday...Very few chances exist for
precipitation in the extended portion of the forecast. Thursday
into Friday, upper level ridging will past atop the central CONUS
while a dissipating low pressure center shifts nearly eastward
through central Canada and will be of little consequence to the
lower 48 states. By Saturday morning, a more zonal-type upper
level pattern will prevail which will allow a path for a
developing low pressure center over the northern Rockies to
quickly move eastward through the northern Plains states and into
the Upper Mississippi River Valley region. The system looks to be
compact and have little in the way of moisture associated with it.
As such, chances for precipitation will be rather minimal, no more
than 30% for any given 6-hour period Saturday and Saturday night.
In fact, the most worthwhile feature to be discussed for the end
of the week will be temperatures. Temperatures will go on a bit of
a roller coaster ride these 3 days, with highs in the upper 40s to
lower 60s on Thursday rising to the lower 60s to lower 70s on
Friday. This will then be followed by highs back down to the
upper 40s to lower 60s on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...A more active start to next week is
expected as a more organized low pressure system looks to develop
over the Rockies while a potent longwave trough moves onshore the
California coast. This trough wastes little time in crossing the
Rockies, which diminishes its strength somewhat, but is still able
to pick up the developing system and shift it towards the Great
Lakes by the middle of next week. Our region will receive a
glancing blow from this system, enough to keep chance pops in the
forecast for the beginning of next week, but nothing more than
rain showers can be expected. No significant temperatures swings
are in the forecast with highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

High confidence in the continuation of IFR/MVFR ceilings through
the afternoon, and into the evening. Not until winds shift to the
south does ceilings begin to lift which is not likely until after
6z in western Minnesota, and after 12z Thursday in eastern
Minnesota. An east wind will become more east-northeast, and
north across Minnesota this afternoon, then light and variable
this evening before shifting to the south-southeast after 6z.
IFR/LIFR visibilities are also possible overnight, especially if
any breaks in the overcast occurs under the light wind.


As stated above, high confidence in IFR/MVFR ceilings /AOB 1.7k/
through this afternoon, and possibly into the evening. Visibility
will be lowest this morning, before 15z in light rain/drizzle.
Winds will decrease by noon and become more east- northeast. A
light and variable wind will become south Thursday morning with
possibility VFR conditions by 15z.


Thu Aftn...VFR. Wind S 5 kt.
Fri...VFR. Wind SSW 10-15 kt becoming West.
Sat...VFR with MVFR/Showers possible. Wind N at 5-10 kt.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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