773
FXUS63 KSGF 240214
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
914 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms move into the area Friday morning. Some may be
  severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- If enough instability remains, additional strong to severe
  storms may develop Friday afternoon along and south of
  Interstate 44 with large hail and damaging winds.

- Additional severe weather and heavy rain chances Saturday
  night into Sunday.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 847 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The 00Z KSGF sounding showed a very unstable atmosphere with
2100j/kg of ML CAPE however a substantial cap remains at 800mb.
A weak 700mb ridge has remained across the area today into this
evening which has prohibited any storm development given the
cap. A very moist airmass has moved in with dew points in the
65-70 degree range across the area. A low level jet was
increasing across Kansas which was fueling a cluster of storms
across Nebraska. Additional storms were forming across Oklahoma.

Very little in the way of storm chances are expected for most of
the overnight as we likely remain capped. Latest model guidance
suggests the bulk of the Nebraska storms to move east towards
northern Missouri and Iowa. However the low level jet will begin
to veer and guidance suggests that a band of showers and
thunderstorms may begin forming across eastern Kansas after 4am,
entering western Missouri closer to 6-8am. Steep mid level
lapse rates and adequate shear may allow for a few storms to
become severe. These would likely be elevated with large hail
the main threat. This band of thunderstorms looks to work its
way through the area during the mid/late morning hours (8am-
Noon) with that severe threat continuing. It is possible that
storms attempt to become surface based if enough heating occurs.
Most likely area for this would be east of Springfield. This
area of thunderstorms would be ahead of an approaching cold
front.

Several questions remain with the afternoon and evening
thunderstorm development. How much does the morning development
work over the atmosphere? How fast does the cold front work
through the area before additional storms form? From a synoptic
standpoint, the area will be positioned in a favorable upper
level jet location therefore lift should not be an issue. Some
high res models and the RAP continue to show an impressive
amount of instability during the afternoon ahead of the front
(3000-4000j/kg of ML CAPE). IF this amount of instability were
to develop then severe storms would be likely with large hail to
the size of golf balls and damaging winds being the main
threats. Hodographs look fairly straight with low level winds
remaining southwesterly which would limit the tornado threat
however increasing the threat for some splitting supercells
with large hail. These higher severe chances are favored along
and south of I-44.

Therefore we will need to monitor how the morning development
transpires. If clouds/precip linger longer than expected than
instability/severe weather would be lower. The other factor is
the speed of the front however most guidance has it reaching
the I-44 corridor by 4-5pm. If its quicker than the severe
threat would be more southeast of the area.

Additional updates to come overnight into Friday morning.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Short range forecast remains generally on track though timing has
slowed with the system lifting into the Dakotas and associated
trailing cold front advecting across the Plains.

Through tonight - a warm front has progressed northward through
the forecast area with a cap limiting convection from
developing. With the shift of winds to the south, dew points
have climbed into the middle 60s to near 70...with even more
moisture streaming into the system as evident by the stratus on
satellite.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the highly unstable and
sheared environment across the Plains this afternoon into this
evening...though questions on cold pool development advancing the
arrival time of thunderstorms overnight vs storms moving well ahead
of the line and losing their organization.

CAM model soundings in agreement that MLCAPES above 3000 J/KG will
be in place over southeast KS this evening though some disagreement
on whether the cap will break until forcing from the approaching
outflow arrives so there may be a few scattered thunderstorms from
evening into the night before the main band of strong to severe
storms arrives over southeast Kansas into western Missouri toward
sunrise.

This band of storms will likely weaken and then strengthen once
once again increase in coverage and strengthen Friday afternoon
over the eastern half of the forecast as the front works its
way east across the forecast area. While uncapped, the
atmosphere ahead of the convection will loose some of its
instability thanks to warming mid level lapse rates.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Southwesterly flow will resume as the western trough digs then
advects eastward into the Plains Saturday. Progged soundings reveal
an uncapped, highly unstable atmosphere.  The veering profile lacks
strong lower level winds at the present, though anticipate winds to
strengthen as the surface low deepens rapidly over Kansas.  Similar
to the system tonight...the nocturnal elements may lead to severe
threats diminishing and then redeveloping farther east on Sunday.

Of concern with the Saturday night/Sunday system will be increasing
precipital water leading to the potential for very heavy rainfall
rates falling on moist soils from recent storms.

A trailing shortwave will be monitored for the potential for showers
Monday...otherwise the Holiday through midweek will be mild with
highs in the 70s to near 80 and drier dew points.  Dry weather will
then prevail into midweek as a welcome surface high builds across
the central US.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected through tonight and into early
Friday. A line of thunderstorms will move into during the day on
Friday, especially late morning and afternoon and may need to
include prevailing groups in future updates. A period of MVFR
ceilings looks to arrive by morning as well. Winds will begin to
turn southwesterly by Friday afternoon with a switch to the
northwest at the very end of the TAF period. Low level wind
shear is likely tonight at JLN.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Burchfield