Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 050755
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 0255 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS TIME FRAME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA, WHILE A A SECOND LEAD WAVE IS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI WHERE
RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING. CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER KANSAS/MISSOURI THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEBRASKA
WAVE.

THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST MID
LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. BIGGEST CONCERN IS MORNING
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS AND IF AND HOW QUICKLY ATMOSPHERE CAN
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. AND IF IT DOES, WHERE THIS WILL
OCCUR. GIVEN ALL THE VARIABLES, CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY NOT HIGH
ON SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES FOR THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT
TERM FORECAST CONCERN BASED ON EVOLUTION OF MORNING CONVECTION AND
CLOUD TRENDS. IN ADDITION, 00Z SGF UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES AND WITH
CONTINUED FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE, ALBEIT MODELS HAVE CAME IN A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH AND LIGHTER WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF. STILL EXPECTING
UPWARDS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. WITH THE SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH WILL ALSO EXPAND WATCH
ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TO THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 0255 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS WAVE
DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WAVE
DROPS ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTED BY A LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NOSING INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE
CENTRAL MISSOURI WOULD HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THIS ACTIVITY EXITS EARLY FRIDAY AS SUMMER-TIME RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA. WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED,
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S
FOR HIGHS. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF WESTERLIES AND
HAVE INCLUDE LOWER END RAIN PROBABILITIES. THE BIGGEST STORY WILL
BE THE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S WITH LOW TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND MAY
NEED HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THIS PERIOD.

SHORTWAVE WEAKENS RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING A FRONT SAGGING INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN,
AND HAVE LARGELY MAINTAINED ONLY A VCTS MENTION UNTIL TIMING
BECOMES MORE CLEAR. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION,
WITH MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-
     102>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM...HATCH/RABERDING
AVIATION...BOXELL


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