Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KSGF 210806
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

An upper level trough is currently pushing across the southern
Plains early this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are
developing ahead of this feature across portions of Oklahoma,
eastern Kansas, and far western Missouri and Arkansas. Showers
with embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop and track
across the region through out the day today as the upper level
trough tracks east across the region. This activity will develop
on and off throughout the day. Shear and instability will be weak
enough where no severe weather will occur. A cold front will also
push south through the region this evening into tonight allowing
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to remain possible during
the evening hours. The rain will exit the area by around midnight
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

The airmass behind this front will not be much cooler as highs
will still top out in the lower to middle 70s Tuesday afternoon
under sunny skies. Upper level ridging will build over the region
on Wednesday as highs warm into the middle to upper 70s. Southerly
winds will increase and become breezy and gusty on Wednesday. Drier
conditions will spread into the area behind the cold frontal
passage this evening. The southerly winds will help to pull
increased moisture into the region, but this moisture return will
be slow across the eastern Ozarks during the day on Wednesday. The
combination of increased southerly winds and dry conditions
will result in elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday
afternoon across the eastern Ozarks.

An upper level low is then expected to push east into the northern
Plains by Wednesday night and then into the Great Lakes region by
Friday. A cold front will push across the Plains on Wednesday into
Wednesday night ahead of the upper level low. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop across western Kansas south into Texas late
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. These storms will then
form into a complex of storms across central Kansas Wednesday
night and push east towards the area late in the night into
Thursday morning. This activity will then push across the area
Thursday morning into the early afternoon and will push east of
the area during the afternoon hours. The timing of these storms
should result in instability not to be able to increase with the
heating of the day and should limit the strong to severe potential
with this activity.

The front will push south into southern Arkansas Thursday night
into Friday. The front will then slowly lift back to the north as
a warm front Saturday into Sunday. The medium range models differ on
how quickly and how far north the front tracks back to the north
this weekend. An upper level low will also dig into the southwestern U.S.
this weekend and energy from the low and the warm front will be
the focus for shower and thunderstorm development this weekend.
Still too far out to pin out the exact locations of the front
during this time, especially with the model inconsistency. The
front will be over or near the area this weekend resulting in
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered light showers will shift
northeast into the region over the next few hours as an upper
level disturbance and sfc front/trough approach the region.
Increased low level moisture and precip will aid in gradually
lowering ceilings and visibility with mvfr conditions becoming
more common toward 12z. The sfc front will shift winds to the west
and northwest late in the taf period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.