Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 291100

600 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Tranquil and rather cool conditions for late July prevailed across
the area early Tuesday.

Surface high pressure will build into the Ozarks region today
providing spectacular mid-summer weather. High temperatures will
be around 10 degrees below normal.

A disturbance tracking southeastward through the northwesterly
flow aloft will approach the area late tonight. Expect elevated
convection to develop across the central Plains within an axis of
850-700 MB moisture convergence and 310K theta surface isentropic
ascent. This activity may push into southeastern Kansas and far
southwestern Missouri late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The aforementioned disturbance will slide southeastward across the
Ozarks Wednesday. A good chance of showers and perhaps some
thunder will develop Wednesday morning from southeastern Kansas
into far southwestern Missouri within zone of best isentropic
ascent while little if any shower activity is expected farther
north across central Missouri. The clouds and showers will hold
temperatures down Wednesday particularly across far southern
Missouri where highs will likely remain in the 70s.

The chance of showers will linger across southern Missouri into
Thursday as the minor disturbance tracks to the east.

Otherwise the region will remain under a persistent northwesterly flow
aloft the remainder of the week into the weekend. This will
maintain the below normal temperatures. However some warming is
expected this weekend as the upper ridge positioned out west
begins to expand eastward.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...VFR conditions are expected to
occur today through tonight. Winds will pick up slightly out of
the north to northwest this morning and afternoon, and then will
become light again this evening and tonight.

Mid level clouds will increase this morning into this afternoon,
especially in the Joplin area.




LONG TERM...Foster
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