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000
FXUS63 KSGF 200747
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday Night)
Issued at 250 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Upper level ridging remains in place across the region early this
morning as an upper level trough is located across New Mexico.
This upper level trough will slowly push east across Texas and
Oklahoma today, and tonight it will then push across the area on
Monday. This trough will shear as it pushes farther to the east.

Ahead of this trough another warm day is on tap today as highs
warm into the middle to upper 70s. A dry airmass is currently in
place across the region and moisture will slowly increase from
west to east later today into tonight. Clouds will increase today
from west to east. The area will remain dry through this
afternoon.

As the upper level trough tracks east and moisture increases,
showers and a few thunderstorms will begin to develop later this
evening into the overnight hours. This activity will be scattered
in nature. The showers with embedded thunderstorms will become
more widespread during the day on Monday as the trough tracks
across the region. Instability will remain limited enough to where
severe storms are not expected.

A cold front will sag south through the area Monday evening and night
keeping showers possible across the area into the early overnight
hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Upper level ridging will then build back over the region by
Wednesday with above normal temperatures expected.

An upper level low will then track east across the northern Plains
Thursday. The upper level low will push a cold front east into
and through the region late Wednesday night and Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and behind the
front as it pushes through the region.

The front will push into southern Arkansas on Friday and will
then lift back to the north as a warm front on Saturday. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible along the front Saturday into
Saturday night as the front slowly lifts through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A sfc ridge extending from the Great
Lakes to the lower MS River Vly will slowly shift east as low
pressure moves into the central High Plains. High clouds will
continue increase from west to east early in the taf period and a
more developed cumulus field may develop Sunday afternoon with a
gradual increase in low level moisture. Toward the end of the taf
period, increased lift ahead of an upper level disturbance will
begin to increase chances for showers/isolated tstms over KS/OK
and far sw MO. Better rain coverage chances will occur just after
the taf period, but are expected to increase enough to put in a
prob30 group for showers at KJLN after 21/03z.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...DSA