Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 022323
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
623 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

This period will be characterized by a building 500mb ridge from
Texas into the Ozarks. The clouds that have been around the area the
past several days should become less numerous as heights build.
However, models do continue to show residual moisture around the
area tonight so still expect some clouds.

With the building ridge, any convection looks to remain north and
west of the area through the day tomorrow with a complex likely to
develop later Wednesday afternoon over the Plains.

850mb temperatures warm 4 degrees Celsius over the next 24 hours and
along with more sunshine will allow temperatures to begin an upward
trend closer to early June normals by Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

Biggest question in this time frame is position of the upper level
ridge and handling of potential MCS`s rolling out the the Central
Plains towards the area, so overall low confidence in the details of
the forecast. First such MCS could potentially affect the far
northwestern areas of the forecast area Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. If these do make it into the region there could be
a marginal risk of severe weather. After that ridge holds in place
with forecast area on the southern periphery of any convective
activity at least through Friday. By this weekend and into early
next week models indicate a breakdown of the ridge which would lead
to better convective chances and thus expecting a little more
unsettled weather this weekend into early next week. Will have to
monitor for severe weather potential with any of these complexes
dropping out of the Plains.

Temperatures and humidities will be on the upswing as readings
become more summer like with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Some scattered diurnal clouds
are occurring over far western Missouri, these will dissipate
early this evening with just scattered high clouds occurring he
rest of the evening hours.

Early Wednesday morning some light fog may develop at the TAF
sites and could drop into the MVFR range. A low level stratus deck
could possibly try to redevelop over far southern Missouri but
there are questions if this can occur.

VFR conditions will then occur Wednesday with broken mid level
clouds occurring.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Wise





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