Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 271734 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Showers and storms continue to affect areas along and west of the
MO/KS state line. The activity closest to the state line has
exhibited a distinct weakening trend over the past hour or so, but
additional showers and storms are firing just to the west. Will
maintain the best chances for showers/storms across extreme
southeast Kansas through the mid afternoon hours, and maintain a
dry forecast over much of the Missouri Ozarks.

Cloud cover has held temperatures down so far today, however we
should see this thin out with time. High temperatures have been
adjusted downward a few degrees near the MO/KS state line where
clouds/rain will linger the longest. Otherwise, adjustments to
hourly trends to account for a slower diurnal trend will continue
to be necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

If convection does indeed develop over the far western portion of
the CWA in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri early this
morning, it will have trouble getting much further east. Much
drier and more stable air exists over most of our CWA, so any
potential of convection today will likely be this morning and in
our far western CWA.

Shortwave energy will continue to track eastward today and tonight
with the main energy remaining north of our CWA. Will maintain low
end precipitation chances over northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but
expecting most areas to remain dry tonight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

Front remains to our west on Friday with the best energy from the
upper level shortwave still off to the north. Again not expecting
much in the way of precipitation coverage, with slight if any
chances existing in northwest portion of the CWA.

The surface front and shortwave energy will begin to push through
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday, but
shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to remain scattered in nature
with this system, and it looks like not everyone will get
precipitation.

Upper level ridging begins to build back into the area by Saturday
night and precipitation chances through the remainder of the
extended period look to be minimal at this time. Will also see
temperatures rise back to more normal readings for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

See the update section above for short term shower/storm forecast
details. Overall, expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.
High clouds will persist across the region this afternoon,
gradually thinning out at SGF/BBG. Southeast winds will persist
through the forecast cycle, with locally higher wind speeds/gusts
at SGF due to the typical funneling effect observed with southeast
winds. Best rain chances will continue to loiter just to the west
of the area through midday Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gagan
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gagan



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