Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 240459
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1159 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

A cold front pushed through the area early in the day with
continued upper level energy cycling around the main upper level
closed low which was up in Iowa. Scattered showers with a few
embedded rumbles of thunder continue over the area this afternoon
and have increased in coverage with a bit of instability. The
short term forecast will focus on the upper low tracking south
through the area and resultant cool temperatures/cloud cover and
lingering scattered showers.

Focus in the long term will be on the convective precipitation and
severity chances over the holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

For tonight, the upper low will drift into the area from Iowa, but
scattered shower activity will diminish considerably after dark
with the loss of daytime heating and instability. Additional
shower activity will be possible on Wednesday, mainly in the
afternoon, as the upper low slowly drifts southeast across the
CWA and instability increases again. Not expecting much thunder
with any of the remaining activity, but can`t rule out an isolated
lightning strike. Temperatures will be on the cool side with highs
on Wednesday only in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

The low will track to the southeast of the area Wednesday night
and showers should come to an end. Upper ridging will build into
the area behind the low on Thursday along with a much drier air
mass. With plenty of sunshine, should see temperatures rebound
back into the mid to upper 70s.

Late Thursday night a low level jet will set up across the
southern Plains into the lower Mississippi valley nosing into the
Missouri Ozarks which may develop some scattered elevated
convection which may linger into Friday.

Models still have differing solutions Friday into the weekend with
timing of convection and amount of instability getting up into the
area and have trended further south with the surface low from
previous couple of runs. Can`t rule out strong to severe weather
from Friday through Saturday night, but specifics will need to be
hammered out with future model runs. Best chances at stronger
storms will likely be from late Saturday into Saturday night as
the surface front moves through.

Drier air should move in for the later portion of the extended
holiday weekend with temperatures in the 70s both Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Upper level low pressure will continue to slowly move through the
region into Wednesday. Ceilings will lower late tonight with MVFR
likely by sunrise. MVFR is then expected for much of Wednesday,
although ceilings may improve into the VFR category over portions
of southern Missouri Wednesday afternoon. Scattered rain showers
are again expected from late morning into the afternoon as the
atmosphere becomes weakly unstable. Surface winds will increase
out of the northwest and become gusty during the day on Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann



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