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000
FXUS63 KSGF 231749
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1249 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Rather challenging short term forecast this morning. So far this
morning, the regional radar imagery has been mostly quiet with
just a few showers/storms popping up and dissipating across
eastern Missouri. This is, of course, in spite of previous (and
numerous) model solutions suggesting robust thunderstorm
development along the incoming cold front. Turns out that in
reality forcing has been much too weak to overcome warm
temperatures aloft (14C at 700mb is usually tough to overcome).

That said, altocumulus development has been noted on the regional
IR satellite imagery over the past few hours. Elevated parcels are
nearly uncapped, and there there is still plenty of elevated CAPE
present. Unfortunately, large scale forcing mechanisms remain on
the weak side. As a result, there remains the potential for a few
showers and storms to gradually develop along the incoming cold
front. Confidence, however, is shaky at best. Unless radar trends
begin to change dramatically, will likely be dropping going PoPs
to slight chance/low end chance.

The aforementioned cold front is currently entering central
Missouri. The wind shift should continue tracking south at around
30mph. The dewpoint drop with this front, however, is lagging by
about 100 miles or so. As a result, muggy conditions we are
experiencing right now will continue today. The front and lagging
dewpoint drop will exit to the south later this afternoon into
early this evening. A cooler and drier airmass will filter into
the region tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

00z suite of model output offers a few changes to the going
forecast. After a brief respite from hot temperatures Thursday,
the upper level ridge builds right back over the area Friday and
Saturday. With very warm 700mb temperatures yet again expected
with this airmass, have gone ahead and cut PoPs for Friday and
Saturday.

Sunday now features a cold front passage on the heels of a rapidly
amplifying upper level pattern. There will be some rain chances
with this frontal passage, but current indications are that any
activity should be rather hit/miss. Another strong trough will
develop over the eastern CONUS and send our temperatures decidedly
back below average. Have gone with low/mid 80s highs next week
with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. If current trends
persist, cooler highs and low will likely be necessary with future
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A line of thunderstorms will clip southwestern Missouri early this
afternoon and is expected to impact the Joplin terminal. MVFR
conditions with perhaps some brief IFR can be expected. Gusty west
to northwest winds will also accompany this line. Meanwhile, MVFR
ceilings will also persist for a portion of this afternoon across
southern Missouri. Skies are then expected to clear by mid-
evening. We are then expecting light fog overnight into early
Thursday morning. Winds will remain light out of the north tonight
and Thursday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Schaumann