Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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366 FXUS63 KLBF 091135 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 635 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper trough and weak cool front will bring thunderstorm chances late Monday afternoon into Monday night. The main area of concern will be west of Valentine through Imperial, with the primary threats isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts. - An upper ridge building across the Desert Southwest Wednesday and Thursday will support very warm temperatures. The NBM 75th percentile supports highs in the upper 90s across the southwest. - An upper trough in the southwestern U.S. will approach and cross the region Friday and Saturday. This will bring the potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Surface high pressure centered from the eastern Dakotas and eastern Nebraska will keep a stationary front across southern Wyoming, the Colorado Front Range to across the Texas Panhandle and southern Oklahoma. Skies will be mostly sunny today with light southeast winds and highs 75 to 80. Tonight, surface high pressure will persist across the region and push a weak cold front to the Gulf Coast. Surface low pressure will develop across southeast Montana with a Pacific cold front advancing across western Wyoming. Across western Nebraska, skies to remain mostly clear with lows from the low to mid 50s. Monday, the Pacific front will advance into western South Dakota and the western panhandle as an upper trough advances into the Northern Plains. Ahead of the front, breezy southerly winds 15 to 30 mph, highs in the lower 80s and SBCAPEs from 1000-1500 J/kg will extend across the western Sandhills and southwest Nebraska with deep layer shear from 25 to 30 kts. PWATS to 1.25 inches across the northwest Sandhills should be near 150% of normal. With fairly strong frontal forcing, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are likely to develop for the late afternoon and evening hours across the northwest Sandhills into north central Nebraska. Storm coverage will be much more limited across southwest Nebraska into eastern portions of north central Nebraska, where frontal forcing will be lacking. NBM probabilities of exceeding 0.5" QPF Monday night are low at only 10 to 25 percent for the northwestern Sandhills. Latest SPC Day 2 outlook shows a Marginal Risk for areas west of Valentine through Imperial, with a Slight Risk over the far northwest Sandhills. Isolated large hail and damaging winds possible with the strongest storms. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Upper ridging will builds across the Desert Southwest Wednesday into Thursday, this will bring very warm temperatures from 90 to 95 Wednesday and 85 to 95 Thursday. NBM 75th percentile supports highs in the upper 90s both days across southwest Nebraska. An upper trough across the southwestern U.S. will approach the area on Friday and cross the region Saturday. This will bring the potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall both days. PWATs will peak near 1.25 to over 1.5 inches on Friday. Details on timing and the amount of severe weather remains uncertain at this time. Surface high pressure across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes will bring slightly cooler highs in the 80s Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the area through today. The exception will be the areas of MVFR and local IFR ceilings early this morning across far southwest Nebraska extending northward into the Panhandle. These ceilings will lift by this afternoon. Winds will become southeast at 5-15 kts by this afternoon. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Taylor