Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 252042
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
342 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015 SHOWERS...ALONG UPSTREAM JET
STREAK ON LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH...HAVE FINALLY MOVED SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEAK
RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM SEEN OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM...WHILE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION PERSISTED ACROSS NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY MID AFTERNOON...ALL PRECIPITATION HAD
DIPPED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE SKIES FINALLY WERE CLEARING
ALLOWING A SHORTER PERIOD OF WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAD BEGUN TO RELAX THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA STARTED BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. STRONG WINDS PERSISTED ACROSS KANSAS WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD MOVED THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA. THIS WILL GIVE A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. THE NEXT CONCERN DEALS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SEEN OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...SO LOOKING AT INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IN
ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE...LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...WHILE A JET STREAK MOVES INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL PUT NORTHERN...NORTH CENTRAL...INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET TO BRING ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE LIFT OVER
THE AREA. DID ADJUST THE AREA WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST AS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NOW LOOKING TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THURSDAY...A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THERE
WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SEVERAL
REASONS...FIRST THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9C
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TO -3C OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. ALSO...PRECIPITATION AND THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES...HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT THAT.
THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE ANY/ALL PRECIPITATION CHANGE OVER
TO ALL RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NOW MODELS
SUGGEST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A
QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT RAIN
EARLY THAN FLURRIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. RIDGE SPREADS EAST FRIDAY WITH 50S EAST
AND 60S WEST. WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER MAY BECOME A CONCERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE
STARVED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE LEFT NORTH CENTRAL ZONES DRY FOR NOW WITH LACK OF
CONFIDENCE. MAY WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN LATER FORECASTS IF
MODELS CAN STAY CONSISTENT. SUNDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM 6C THROUGH 18C SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S THROUGH UPPER
70S DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES. HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THEN FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A SURFACE
LOW/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. TIMING LOOKS TO BE
LATE MORNING OR NEAR 18Z WHEN WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. CLOUDS TODAY WILL DECREASE...WITH A
PERIOD THIS EVENING OF LITTLE CLOUDS EXPECTED. BUT...CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AGAIN...WITH NORTHERN NEBRASKA SEEING
CEILINGS OF 3-5K FEET AROUND MID MORNING.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...BROOKS






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