Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 220446 AAB
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1146 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

A quiet conditions are expected for central Nebraska through
Monday as high pressure continues to influence the region. Skies
remain clear to mostly clear through early Monday before clouds
slowly build in on Monday afternoon ahead of the next system
arriving Monday night. Winds are also expected to increase Monday
afternoon with gusts reaching up to 30 mph across the eastern half
of the forecast area. Winds will be around 20 mph across the western
counties (west of SR-61) during the afternoon. A warming trend
returns for temperatures once again. Lows Sunday night drop into the
upper 50s for locations mainly west of a Merriman to Imperial line.
Areas east of this line will drop into the low 60s. Highs Monday
rise into the low 90s south of Antioch to O`Neill line. Locations
north of this line will generally see temperatures in the mid-90s,
with a few isolated locations in northern Cherry and Keya Paha
counties seeing temperatures approaching 95 to 97 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Consistency continues in mid and long term solutions. Have good
confidence in the going forecast. Ensemble means are at 0 or 1
standard deviations through out the forecast period for
temperatures. After a brief warm up Sunday and Monday
temperatures to fall back into the 70s through the end of the
week. Major forecast focus will be timing of cool front Tuesday.
Fropa at KLBF late Tuesday afternoon with chance pops retained.
Deeper layer moisture to the east with resultant CAPE values
higher. Forecast area remains in marginal. Waves moving through
southwest flow producing precipitation over mainly southern
Nebraska later in the week but confidence is not high with these
solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Nocturnal low-level jet has formed a bit earlier than expected
based on local VWP data so TAFs were amended to account for
this. In the TAFs, the height of LLWS is about 1000 ft with a
speed of about 40-45 kts at the top. Low-level jet should start
diminishing in the early morning.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Partly to mostly clear skies are currently observed across western
and north central Nebraska, with high clouds currently moving in
from the west across the southern half of the forecast area.
Tomorrow: Partly to mostly clear skies. Windy conditions across
most of the area with southerly winds picking up by late morning.
Gusts will be peaking at 20-25 mph in the afternoon across
portions of central and north central NE. Otherwise, not expecting
much in terms of CU tomorrow, with sky cover FEW possible.
Otherwise, mainly high clouds.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...ET



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