Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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093 ACUS11 KWNS 281802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281802 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-282130- Mesoscale Discussion 1045 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of far southern Wisconsin into northern IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281802Z - 282130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected throughout the afternoon. Scattered strong storms may occasionally produce gusty winds and hail. The severe threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a gradually deepening CU field over southern WI/northern IL, which precedes a 500 mb vort max that is approaching from eastern IA. As the vort max progresses eastward, the combination of increasing deep-layer ascent and diurnal heating will support an increase in thunderstorm development through the afternoon. These storms will develop in an environment characterized by 7+ C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, but mediocre deep-layer effective shear and only around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. As such, storms may produce a couple instances of strong, gusty winds or hail. While a few instances of severe hail/wind cannot be ruled out, the severe threat is expected to remain sparse, and a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 43369183 43809131 43588965 43098854 42128773 41648764 41328822 41568944 42009061 42459147 43369183