000
ACUS11 KWNS 150844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150843
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-151045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0357
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL-NERN SC...CENTRAL NC...AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 150843Z - 151045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
A BRIEF TORNADO WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT TO
EARLY MORNING FROM FAR NORTH CENTRAL INTO NERN SC THROUGH CENTRAL NC
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A STORM HAD INCREASED IN
INTENSITY AFTER 0720Z...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL ROTATION AS IT TRACKED
NEWD FROM UNION COUNTY INTO STANLY COUNTY NC.  WHILE THIS STORM HAS
SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED...A CLUSTER OF STORMS LOCATED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL NC AND ADJACENT NRN SC IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NEWD THROUGH
CENTRAL NC THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS.  WSR-88D VAD DATA ACROSS THIS REGION INDICATED STRENGTHENING
AND BACKING MIDLEVEL WINDS /60-70 KT AT 6-8 KM AGL/ SUGGESTING A
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE/JET STREAK MOVING FROM SC TOWARD NC.  SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN VA SSWWD THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL NC INTO CENTRAL SC.  A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED
SEWD FROM CENTRAL NC INVOF THE STORM CLUSTER THROUGH ERN SC AND
OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL SC COAST ATTENDANT TO THE BAND OF
STORMS...LOCATED FROM 50 SE CHS TO 120 E SSI.  STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS TROUGH TOO.

ASCENT WITH THE APPARENT MIDLEVEL IMPULSE/SPEED MAX AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL NC SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS
SUFFICIENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY STRONGER STORMS...THUS PRECLUDING A
GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35477805 34507850 34017896 33697962 33847992 34438018
            35058032 36137992 36847939 36767835 36477788 36077783
            35477805