000
ACUS11 KWNS 302348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302348
TXZ000-NMZ000-310115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE NM...FAR WEST TX...WCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302348Z - 310115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FROM WEST TX AND FAR SE NM ENEWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX. THE SEVERE
THREAT MAY INCREASE SOME OVER THE NEXT HOUR BUT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
LOCATED FROM NEAR MIDLAND-ODESSA NEWD TO JUST EAST OF WICHITA FALLS
WITH A WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S F. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS WCNTRL TX WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ATTM. TO THE SOUTH OF THE INSTABILITY
AXIS...RAP DATA SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME VERY
STEEP WITH 0-3 KM VALUES APPROACHING DRY-ADIABATIC. SHORT-TERM MODEL
FORECASTS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SEWD INTO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 50S F. THIS DRYER AIRMASS COMBINED
WITH LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATIONS RESULTING IN A MARGINAL
WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR FEW HOURS BEFORE THE
AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE LATER THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/30/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31450152 31130341 31570413 32040428 32410393 32630347
            32820227 33140108 33310020 33019960 32489939 32189940
            31929982 31760022 31450152