Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
ACUS11 KWNS 290058
SPC MCD 290058
Mesoscale Discussion 0361
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017
Areas affected...Parts of western and central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 290058Z - 290230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...It is not clear that an additional severe weather watch is
needed north and east of tornado watch 95, at least in the near
term. However, there probably is at least some risk for occasional
surface gusts at least approaching severe limits with convection
overspreading the region this evening.
DISCUSSION...Lead area of large-scale forcing for ascent, primarily
associated with low/mid-level warm advection beneath divergent upper
flow, appears likely to continue overspreading much of western and
central Oklahoma through 03-06Z, before weakening. As it does, an
evolving cluster of storms will follow suit, with strongest activity
expected to spread across/east of the Interstate-44 corridor,
through at least portions of the Oklahoma City metropolitan area.
North of the Red River, surface dew points continue to slowly
increase on easterly low-level flow, but boundary layer based
instability remains generally weak, and instability based within
higher moisture content above the boundary layer remains relatively
modest (based on 00Z OKC sounding). Even with heavy precipitation
loading contributing to downward momentum transfer (in the presence
of 40+ kt southwesterly mean environmental flow) the potential for
surface gusts in excess of 50 kt remains unclear.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35519919 36489821 36539660 35739592 34969676 34089775