Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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201 ACUS11 KWNS 281514 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281513 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-281645- Mesoscale Discussion 1038 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...northwest OK into adjacent southwest KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281513Z - 281645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail to around 1.75 inches diameter is possible the next 1-2 hours across northwest Oklahoma into adjacent southwest Kansas. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning in an area of low-level east/southeasterly flow beneath upper northwest flow. Very steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting modest instability. VWP data from KVNX shows elongated hodographs above 2-3 km amid deeper shear supporting transient supercells. This activity will be capable of producing severe hail to near 1.75 inches over the next 1-2 hours. With southward extent, overnight convection and outflow has modified the airmass into parts of southwest and central OK. The expectation is that this cluster of storms should gradually decrease in intensity with southeast extent over the next couple of hours. Trends will be monitored but watch issuance is not currently expected. ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37120086 37370057 37379996 37059909 36649837 36389809 36029812 35759826 35679865 35739918 36029977 36610029 36890069 37120086