Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 281717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281716
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-281915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0899
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan...northwestern
Ohio...northern/central Indiana...and east-central Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 281716Z - 281915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Convection is expected to gradually increase in intensity
and coverage over the discussion area this afternoon, with damaging
wind gusts and hail being the primary threats.  A WW issuance will
be considered within the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar/satellite imagery and objective analyses
indicate increasing convection in northwestern Indiana and adjacent
east-central Illinois within a broadly confluent, weak-to-moderately
(500-1250 J/kg) unstable, and uncapped airmass over the past hour.
A subjectively analyzed surface trough/warm front was located near
the Michigan/Indiana/Ohio state borders and was slowly lifting north
across the region, with more veered surface flow amidst low to
mid-60s dewpoints to its south.  Over time, continued surface-based
destabilization and lift ahead of an approaching mid-level trough
near the Mississippi River will allow for storms to increase in
coverage and intensity.  Low-level shear profiles are weak, but deep
shear will be sufficient for storm organization, with wind gusts and
hail possible near stronger cores and any linear segments that can
evolve.  A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out especially
near the warm front, where surface winds are backed.  Convective
trends will be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch
issuance within the next couple of hours.

..Cook.. 05/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   42668599 42758502 42538384 42238330 42018326 41718318
            41508280 41218254 40818250 40468266 40278325 40148466
            39928593 39768756 39628826 39948858 40558837 41318768
            41568702 41758678 42668599




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