Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 292156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292156
TXZ000-292330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292156Z - 292330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AT
THIS TIME...COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR
WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR AND EAST OF
THE DFW METROPLEX. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH IS SLOWLY ADVANCING NWD INTO AN AREA THAT
WAS PREVIOUSLY MODIFIED BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. STRONG HEATING
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE IN THE
1500-3000 J/KG RANGE. STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK
LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW...THOUGH MODESTLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES
AND MODERATE ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED MULTICELL
MODE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN
THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES. AT THIS TIME...THE
COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR
WATCH ISSUANCE.

..DEAN/GUYER.. 05/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   33289787 33399731 33239624 32769474 32069508 31989585
            32079687 32189767 32269791 32929797 33289787




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