Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 211208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211208
TXZ000-211315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0712
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211208Z - 211315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE TSTM COMPLEX MOVING SSEWD
THROUGH THE REGION.  A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA INDICATE SOME
INTENSIFICATION AND FORWARD ACCELERATION TO A CLUSTER OF STORMS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF LRD AS OF 12Z.  THE INFLOW AIR MASS TO THIS
ACTIVITY IS VERY MOIST WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S AND MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.  AND WHEN
COUPLED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 30-35 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE SSEWD
CONTINUATION OF THESE STORMS...AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE.

ANY ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WITH THE
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE LIKELY PRECLUDING THE NECESSITY OF A WATCH.

..MEAD.. 05/21/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   27339949 27559941 27429884 26809830 26459808 26149798
            26099818 26449906 27339949




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