738
ACUS11 KWNS 301751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301750
TXZ000-301945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Areas affected...portions of western and central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 301750Z - 301945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms organizing into a line or bow are expected
to develop and shift south/southeast through early evening. Damaging
gusts and large hail will be possible with this activity.

DISCUSSION...Convection is developing along an outflow boundary
stretching across the Texas South Plains into north-central Texas.
This boundary is being reinforced and shunted southward from ongoing
convection over northwest Texas. Low-level flow ahead of the outflow
is not overly strong at only about 10 kt from the south/southeast.
As a result, the outflow may continue to shift south through the
afternoon. This is resulting in some uncertainty, as outflow may
outpace developing convection along the boundary. CAMs guidance
differs in the evolution of the boundary and convection tied to it.
Nevertheless, a moist and very unstable airmass is in place
downstream. Vertical shear will also increase modestly through the
afternoon. As a result, severe thunderstorm potential from a
developing bowing line of storms is present. Severe gusts to 80 mph
and isolated large hail will be possible should a well-organized,
southward-propagating band of storms develop. Trends will be
monitored and a watch will likely be needed this afternoon, though
timing is a bit uncertain.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30640074 30770095 31220136 32060142 32320128 32510111
            32499931 32489822 32209786 31549745 31099721 30809717
            30529720 30359740 30249759 30089876 30289971 30640074