146
FXUS63 KMQT 090856
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
456 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain showers are expected today with breezy north winds
  gusting up to 20-30 mph, especially over the eastern U.P.

- A Canadian high pressure brings dry weather and chilly
  temperatures tonight and Monday night. Patchy frost is
  possible both nights.

- A warming trend with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances
  are expected mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
Issued at 451 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A persistent low pressure system can still be seen rotating over
Ontario on the latest water vapor imagery.  This disturbance is
responsible for scattered rain showers moving northwest to southeast
across central-eastern portions of Upper Michigan on current radar
mosaic.  Meanwhile, ground-based obs are indicating a wind shift to
the northwest as an associated cold front also pushes through Upper
Michigan this morning.  And, northerly winds will become breezy by
this afternoon with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. This will
keep temperatures well below normal today with highs only
topping off in the upper 40s/low 50s (north) to upper 50s/low
60s (south). The outlier will be far southern Menominee County,
which could climb into the mid 60s. With a saturated environment
consistent in forecast soundings through mid-afternoon, expect
the cloudy skies/rain showers to linger most of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 453 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The work week starts off with an omega shape mid level pattern with
a positively tilted ridge over the Upper Mississippi Valley that is
stuck between a trough over the Lower Great Lakes/New England and
another trough over Saskatchewan. As this pattern shifts east and
breaks down through Tuesday night, the western trough passes over
the UP late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Meanwhile,
another trough moves off the Pacific on Tuesday into British
Columbia. This trough then propagates east along the Canadian
Prairie Provinces to the Upper Great Lakes for late next week. Hit
and miss chances for showers continue the rest of the work week with
broad troughing over the region.

Starting tonight, skies clear out and winds taper down as high
pressure builds in from the northwest. A dry and cooler airmass
moving in alongside light north to northwest winds will result in
better radiational cooling. This will allow lows to settle in the
30s to lower 40s, coolest in the interior west where moisture erodes
quicker and the lightest winds are located. With some spots
potentially falling into the lower to mid 30s, some frost will be
possible.

High pressure keeps the weather dry through Tuesday morning. Temps
warm up from the weekend into the 60s under sunny skies on Monday
save for the eastern Lake Superior shores which stay cooler in the
50s. With increased mixing to around 900-850mb, higher mixing over
the interior west, min RHs are expected in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
Northerly winds will be stronger over the east (gusting up to 20-
25mph) where RHs are not as low thanks to cooler onshore flow off
Lake Superior; this does flirt with borderline elevated wildfire
conditions, but mitigating our threat will be the antecedent wet
environment courtesy of plenty of wet weather lately. The cool and
dry airmass remains overhead for Monday night under clear skies
yielding another period of below normal temps. Lows Monday night are
expected in the mid 30s to mid 40s, warmer near the lakeshores. Some
additional patchy frost is possible.

On Tuesday, a mid level trough and associated sfc low move east from
Manitoba to Ontario bringing a cold front into the western UP in the
late morning/early afternoon. This cold front coupled some
isentropic ascent and weak PVA from a shortwave rotating around the
trough will support a line of showers and potentially some storms
moving east across the UP into Tuesday night. Ahead of this, expect
increasing southerly flow and warmer temperatures generally in the
upper 60s and lower 70s. With latest model guidance indicating bulk
shear around 30-35 kts and minimal CAPE (<200 J/kg), strong storms
are not likely and severe potential remains very low (<5%). A second
cold front dropping southeast over the UP late Tuesday night into
Wednesday does leave some potential for additional shower chances.

With troughing over the region through late week and passing
embedded shortwaves tracking through, expect on and off rain chances
at least through Friday. Highs through the rest of the work week are
generally expected in the upper 60s to 70s with lows in the upper
40s to 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The same slow-moving low pressure system over Ontario continues to
bring a few isolated light rain showers to Upper Michigan tonight,
but most places stay dry most of the time. The main feature of
interest for this time period is a seasonably strong cold front
pushing south across the terminals Sunday morning with winds backing
northerly and a batch of low MVFR to IFR cigs expected at all
terminals. Northerly upslope flow at SAW may even allow for a brief
period of LIFR cigs. Minor vsby restrictions in drizzle/mist are
possible at all terminals, but are most likely at SAW. Rapid
clearing is expected late on Sunday as a much drier air mass moves
into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 453 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

West winds veer northwest this morning, increasing to 20 to 25 kts
over the east half of the lake as a jet streak passes overhead.
There is a 40-60% chance for higher observing platforms to see gusts
approach 30 kts during the day. As high pressure builds in from the
northwest tonight into Monday, winds fall back below the 20 kt
threshold. The next potential for winds to exceed 20 kts is Tuesday
into Wednesday when a low pressure system tracks north of Lake
Superior, but chances of winds exceeding 20 kts are low (20-40%)
given the stability over the lake. Winds fall below 20 kts again
midweek.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MIZ006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...Jablonski
AVIATION...EK
MARINE...Jablonski