094
FXUS62 KTBW 040826
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
426 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Most of the activity has dissipated with only a shower or two
lingering several miles offshore. As you walk out the door this
morning it should feel a tad drier compared to yesterday with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. The main culprit is the ridge
of high pressure northeast of the area that should be in place
through Wednesday. Dry air circulating around it has been and
will continue to be ingested across the Peninsula today. This
will limit how much convection develops this afternoon. Very light
east to southeasterly flow should keep showers and thunderstorms
developing along the west coast, mostly south of the I-4 corridor.
Showers should move offshore and gradually dissipate during the
evening/overnight hours.

Afternoon highs climb up into the mid to upper 90s through the
period. The ridge begins to move south on Wednesday allowing
winds and moisture to slightly increasing.

&&

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...
Issued at 426 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

During the second half of the week, an upper level trough
approaches the region while high pressure builds south of the area.
This should shift winds from the west and this set up supports
most of the convection over interior areas and east of the CWA
into next week. Additionally, very muggy conditions are possible
Thursday and Friday as dewpoints stay in the 70s, which doesn`t
feel great. Model guidance continues to hint at a weak boundary
moving over the state on Saturday. This should bring drier air
behind it but doesn`t seem to help cool temperatures. Temperatures
remain in the mid to upper 90s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions prevail across terminals through the early
afternoon hours. Then, rain chances gradually increase late
afternoon and into the evening as the sea breeze supports showers
and storms. Pockets of dry air are possible which could be a
limiting factor in terms of how many storms do develop. East to
southeasterly winds remain with a onshore shift in the afternoon.
Intermittent MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible where
storms occur, along with gusty and erratic winds. Conditions
improve after 02Z when activity moves offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Area of high pressure remains north of the area keeping east to
southeasterly winds in place becoming onshore behind the
afternoon sea breeze through Wednesday. Showers and storms should
develop over the land each afternoon/evening, drifting into the
Gulf each day during the late evening and early overnight hours. A
weak boundary should approach the Gulf waters on Thursday which
will shift winds from the west into the weekend. As a result,
showers could develop along the coast early and push inland by the
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

High pressure persists over the area today keeping east to
southeasterly winds and fairly moist conditions in place across fire
districts. This should support showers and storms along the sea
breeze though pockets of drier air could limit activity this
afternoon, especially over interior areas. Minimum humidities could
range between 35 to 45 percent this afternoon with the lowest values
expected inland. Then, a weak disturbance approaches the region
during the second half of the week shifting winds from the west and
increasing moisture again. This should push rain chances away from
the coast to interior locations into the weekend. Drier conditions
are possible later in the period. Light winds and mostly above
critical values RHs should keep fire weather concerns out of the area
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  77  94  78 /  40  40  60  30
FMY  95  75  95  76 /  50  70  70  40
GIF  95  73  96  75 /  40  30  70  20
SRQ  94  76  94  77 /  40  40  60  30
BKV  95  69  95  71 /  40  30  60  20
SPG  92  79  92  81 /  40  40  60  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close