Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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036 FXUS63 KTOP 261134 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 634 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop across the area this afternoon. The stronger storms may produce damaging wind gusts and small hail. - Memorial Day will be dry and Sunny. Highs Monday afternoon will reach the lower 80s. - Thunderstorms chances will be possible again Wednesday night through next Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Early this morning a longer wave-length upper trough was located across the central and southern Plains. One lead perturbations was lifting northeast across western MO. A second perturbations was translating east across the central Rockies of CO and northern NM. A surface front extended from western NE southward across west central KS, then southwest into the northern TX PNHDL. An OFB extended from north central KS near Quinter, then extended southeast north of McPherson, then east-southeast just south of the CWA border. A couple lines of elevated thunderstorms continue to move east cross the CWA. These storms should not be severe. The elevated storms will continue to produce outflow, which should push the OFB farther south. There may be some minor flooding as these lines of storms push east across the CWA. A cluster of severe thunderstorms over southeast KS will move into southwest MO and remain south of the CWA. A wake low may be forming northwest of the stratiform rain band across southeast KS, just northwest of the cluster of severe thunderstorms across far southeast KS. Some areas of the southeast counties could see some gusty winds through the remainder of the early morning hours. Today through Tonight: The surface cold front across west central KS will push southeast across the CWA through the mid and late morning hours. A few CAMs develop thunderstorms northwest of the front as DCVA ahead of the central Rockies H5 trough spreads east across eastern KS. A few of the CAMs have MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/KG, Inverted V soundings, with steep lapse rates during the early afternoon hours. So a few of the storms may be strong across the eastern half of the CWA, with small hail and gusty surface winds that may exceed 50 MPH in isolated areas. The main upper trough will move east into the northern MS River Valley and western MO by late afternoon. Any showers and thunderstorms that develop this afternoon will push east into western MO by 00Z MON. Northwest winds will increase to 20 to 25 MPH with some gusts up to 35 MPH during the afternoon hours. Tuesday through Thursday: An amplified H5 ridge will move east across the Plains. However, return flow of richer moisture may provide enough isentropic lift for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. Thursday night through Sunday: An Upper trough will move onshore across the Pacific northwest on Wednesday, then slowly move east across the northern and central Plains through Sunday morning. Deeper moisture will be in place and any perturbations rounding the slow moving H5 trough may provide enough ascent for scattered shows and thunderstorms. At this time the stronger H5 jet should remain north of the CWA, so we may not see too much in the way of severe thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Skies have cleared out over the terminals at 11Z. Some guidance show MVFR ceilings developing between 14Z and 17Z. There is some uncertainty, so I placed a tempo group for a brief period of MVFR broken ceilings through the mid and late morning hours. Isolated thunderstorms may develop around the terminals this afternoon but PoPs will be less than 20 percent, so did not include them in the TAFs. Skies should clear this evening. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Gargan