Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 261742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Mid level trough this morning continues to rotate northeast towards
the far northern plains while the southern stream elongated trough
continues to impact much of the western and central conus through
the period, advecting mid level moisture into the portions of the
central and southern plains. Sfc frontal boundary this morning is
currently stretched from OK through southeast KS into central MO.
Obs show a general trend of dissipating scattered showers over
east central Kansas, along with short term guidance scattering the
precip shortly after sunrise as the mid level subsidence fills into
the region. Post frontal stratus continues to build east over the
CWA for the morning hours, however expect this to mix out during the
late afternoon as the drier and cooler airmass advects into the
region. Did not make major changes to temperatures and winds from
the previous forecast with highs on track to be in the mid to upper
60s and northerly speeds around 10 mph.

A few short and mid term models try to redevelop a few showers
behind the front during the afternoon and evening hours across far
east central areas. Coverage may be limited, however there may be
just enough upper forcing for a mention. Elsewhere, skies remain
partly to mostly cloudy tonight as the sfc ridge overspreads the
central and northern plains. Temps are progged to fall into the 50s,
with perhaps a few upper 40s in low lying areas and along the
Nebraska border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Will keep small chances for showers in the far south Wednesday
morning before drier air in the low levels moves on south and any
significant isentropic upglide diminishes. High cloud looks to
remain rather prevalent through the day downstream of continued
precip over the southern Plains, and with light northeast winds
persisting, temps could have a hard time breaching the upper 60s.
A shortwave trough rotating southeast out of eastern Canada brings
a reinforcing cool airmass into the mid-Mississippi Valley Friday
into Saturday with highs into the weekend in the 70s. Models are
struggling with handling of the waves over the Gulf of Alaska and
Bering Sea as they progress east Sunday into early next week.
Southerly winds should develop by Sunday for a warming trend into
at least Monday, with at least some potential for troughing to
reach the Rockies and moisture stream northeast ahead of it to
justify small precip chances Sunday night and Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

MVFR cigs are expected to continue through 00Z to 01Z across the
area with VFR cigs expected after 01Z Wed. Northwest to north
winds around 10 mph are forecast to decrease to less than 10kts
after 00Z then to 5 kts or less after 06Z.




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