Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 242250

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
450 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Record warmth was realized this afternoon as strong southwest winds
peaked around 20 mph sustained with gusts in excess of 30 mph at
times. With the assistance of some high clouds lingering this AM,
lows were warmer than previously forecast, leading to a record
setting day in terms of temperatures. Both climate sites of Topeka
and Concordia surpassed the record high while various sites such as
Lawrence and Manhattan also reached record temperatures in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. As the cold front entered north central
Kansas earlier this afternoon, compressional warming spiked
readings into the lower 80s, while briefly dropping RH values into
the upper teens to lower 20s. Please see fire weather discussion
for additional details.

Embedded vorticity maxima rounds the base of the upper trough axis
just behind the front, with short term guidance hinting at very
light reflectivity developing towards central Kansas. Looking at
forecast soundings, cloud bases hold in the 10 to 12 kft range
resulting in virga being more probable as opposed to a mention of
sprinkles at this time. Skies remain partly cloudy tonight with
northerly, light winds and overnight lows in the upper 30s to near
40 degrees.

A calmer, yet mild afternoon remains in store on Saturday with the
modified cooler airmass settling into place. Temperatures remain at
least 10 degrees above normal around 60 degrees with west to
northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Above average temperatures and stiff winds will be the story for the
end of the weekend and early next week, with seasonal temperatures
for the middle to end of the week. Midweek also looks to feature our
first chance of decent precipitation in some time.

Longwave ridging over the western half of the CONUS will weaken on
Sunday and Monday as a large PV lobe pushes across the Pacific NW.
Models are in good agreement with the transition from a stable to
progressive upper level pattern by late Monday, but begin to diverge
thereafter on the timing and evolution of the aforementioned
shortwave as it moves into the Central U.S.

A tightening pressure gradient across the Central Plains ahead of
the approaching trough will result in increasing winds and gusts
during the daytime hours on Sunday and Monday with winds of 15 to 20
kts and gusts near 30 kts. Highs on Sunday and especially Monday
will be well above average, pushing record values on Monday as a
H850 downslope airmass of +17 to +20 C overspreads the region. The
combination of heat, wind, and low RH will likely present a very
high fire danger on Monday.

A cold front will push through Monday night into Tuesday morning,
with a lee cyclone developing along the baroclinic zone Tuesday
night and lifting northeastward on Wednesday. The evolution of this
low and the attendant isentropic upglide/moisture return along the
upstream flank of the cyclone will determine how much precip NE
Kansas sees from this event. As stated earlier, with the medium
range guidance having difficulty pinpointing the track of the upper
level features, the POP forecast for midweek is somewhat broad
brushed to account for this uncertainty. CAA behind the boundary
will drop temperatures to near normal starting on Tuesday with a
1035 mb Canadian surface high building south in the wake of the
system for the latter half of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 450 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Dry air in the lower troposphere is expected to keep VFR
conditions prevailing. Winds will subside through the evening.


Issued at 232 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Very high fire danger conditions are expected to linger through
around 5 PM today as the passing frontal boundary veers southwest
winds towards the northwest, remaining strong at around 20 to 30 mph
for a short time before waning to around 10 mph after sunset. Gusts
appear strongest across north central Kansas, peaking up to 40 mph.
RH values in north central areas will drop briefly to near 20
percent along the boundary before improving as the cooler air moves
in from the northwest.


Issued at 232 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Record Highs Monday

Topeka: 71 degrees set back in 1998 (Forecast: 70)
Concordia: 69 degrees set back in 1933 (Forecast: 73)




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