Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 050751
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
251 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

Not much change to the overall pattern with southwest flow aloft
over the central and southern plains keeping the lee side trough in
place and a decent pressure gradient across eastern KS. Temperatures
will be a few degrees higher today so expect highs in the low to mid
90s with a few locations possibly reaching the upper 90s in central
KS. Southerly winds will again increase later today around 15 to 25
mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Later this morning a weak shortwave
will track over western NE and support showers and storms possibly
as far east as north central KS. The latest runs of the HRRR are now
hinting at isolated development in that area around sunrise, but
decided not to increase pops given the low uncertainty. The models
are showing mid level moisture spreading northward from the gulf
today coupled with cooler 850 mb temperatures across southeast KS.
This may lead to a weaker cap and an isolated shower or storm could
be possible south of I-35 this afternoon as daytime heating erodes
this cap. There is no obvious mid level support or any other focus
for lift so did not increase pops, but it could not be completely
ruled out. Tonight a cold front will drift eastward through the high
plains while several weak mid-level shortwaves track over the same
area. This should support storm development along the front in NE
during the overnight hours although have kept the northern forecast
area dry through sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

Front still advancing across the Northern Plains on Sunday and
just starts to move into the far northwestern CWA by the late
afternoon hours. This leaves much of the area parked under the
thermal ridge for Sunday, with temperatures rising well into the
middle 90s. Heat indicies look to range from near 100 to 102F by
the afternoon hours. Northern counties may get some relief
overnight as front moves southward about halfway across the CWA,
but stalls out without a strong push to get the front south of the
area. As storms move into the area, some of the storms could be
strong with good instability available and dry air in the low
levels, but wind shear is not strong nor are the lapse rates
aloft. Front may actually retreat back toward the north on Monday
as next upper shortwave trof moves into the northern plains,
before getting a push southward in the overnight hours Monday
night into early Tuesday. Have highs Monday near 90 in the south
to middle 80s north and will need to watch progression of the
front for sensible weather effects.

Synoptic pattern over the Central Plains remains zonal in nature,
with surface front near the area for much of the remainder of the
week with shortwave trofs passing through the flow overhead.
Temperatures slowly fall Tuesday through Friday with rain chances
for much of the period given close proximity of the front. Upper
trof looks to deepen across the Great Lakes late in the week, and
usher in cooler high pressure behind.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF period. Winds
will increase with gusts by mid to late morning, losing gusts
again by 23Z.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Barjenbruch


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