122
FXUS63 KTOP 200804
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
304 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Today and Tonight, The center of the upper level ridge will remain
nearly stationary across KS and northern OK and will build eastward
into MO Tonight. A weak surface front will remain stationary across
northern NE where afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop
but these showers and thunderstorms will remain well north of the
CWA. Monsoonal moisture across the central rockies will cause
thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours but these storms
will only move northeast into the high plains of eastern CO and
western NE during the overnight hours.

Highs will warm into the upper 90s across the eastern counties with
100 to 105 degree readings across the western half of the CWA.
Forecast soundings show deeper mixing across the western counties
where dew points may drop into the lower to mid 60s during the
afternoon hours. Dewpoints across the eastern counties will remain
in the lower to mid 70s. Heat indices will be around 110 degrees
across northeast and portions of east central KS, along and north of
the I-70 corridor. The western counties will see heat indices in the
105 to 110 degree range. The heat warning will remain in effect
through Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

The upper high will begin to move off to the east on Friday and
Friday night. Another day of hot temperatures and heat indices in
the 104 to 110 degree range is expected across north central,
northeast and east central Kansas and surrounding areas. An upper
level trough moving out of Canada Saturday will suppress the ridge
over the Plains with the southern extent of the westerlies moving
back into southern Nebraska and northeast Kansas Saturday night.
This will push a frontal boundary south into northern Kansas on
Saturday which will be a focus for showers and thunderstorms to
develop during the afternoon and through the night. A few of the
storms could be strong to severe in the evening hours with damaging
winds the main hazard.

Clouds from convection over southern Nebraska Friday night may
linger through mid day across northern Kansas with good insulation
expected in the afternoon. Areas south of the front will likely see
highs near 100 with areas to the north in the mid and upper 90s.
Heat indices are expected to reach 105-110 degrees for much of the
cwa, so will continue with the excessive heat warning through 8 PM
Saturday. Upper flow becomes northwest on Sunday with the upper
ridge back over the Rockies. Presence of the frontal boundary along
with energy moving southeast through the base of the upper trough
will bring another chance of showers and storms to northeast Kansas
on Sunday. Cooler temperatures are expected on Sunday and Monday as
the front pushes into southern Kansas. The upper high is expected to
build back east into the Plains by the end of next week. Periodic
small chances for convection will be possible on Tuesday with the
return of a warm front and minor energy aloft. Highs will be in the
80s to low 90s Monday and Tuesday warming back into the 90s for the
the latter half of the week. Lows in the 70s cooling back into the
60s Monday and Tuesday mornings, then back into the 70s from
Wednesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

VFR conditions hold for the 06Z forecast. LLJ in place but obs
suggest it to be weaker overall than guidance forecasts.
Therefore, with a slightly mixed boundary layer in place
overnight, don`t anticipate LLWS to be strong enough mention at
this point. Southerly winds pick up into the mid morning tomorrow
at KMHK but not as strong points to the east near KTOP/KFOE
terminals.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Drake