Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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156 FXUS63 KTOP 162332 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 632 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid weather builds in for the weekend with temperatures approaching 90 degrees. - Severe storms will be possible late Sunday, and again on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 At 19Z, a weak surface boundary was located across east-central KS. Water vapor imagery shows a mid level trough axis approaching the Great Lakes region and a mid level cyclonic circulation over New Mexico. Near and ahead of the surface boundary, instability had increased to around 1500 J/kg early this afternoon, but shear is very weak. The boundary will continue to slowly sag southward today. Some CAMs show isolated storm development south of the boundary. Given weak shear, weak convergence along the front and a lack of mid level forcing, have kept POPs in the low category mainly near and south of I-35 this afternoon. There is a signal from models for the redevelopment of patchy fog tonight and early Friday morning with mainly clear skies and light winds. The mid level low over New Mexico is expected to pass south of the area tomorrow, so conditions should be dry through the day. A storm system traversing the northern CONUS will bring a weak front into northeastern KS on Saturday. Surface based instability will build to over 2000 J/kg near and ahead of the boundary during the afternoon, but shear again looks to be on the weak side. Without another source of lift, the chance for storms is low. If any storms manage to develop, however, they will be the pulse variety. The front then moves northward as a warm front on Sunday as stronger southerly flow reinforces a warm and humid air mass over the region. Temperatures look to approach 90 degrees through the weekend and early next week. Models show a series of shortwave troughs moving over the central US within southwesterly flow aloft late this weekend and early next week. The first could produce rain and a few storms early Sunday, but the better chances will be north of the forecast area. The next shortwave moves out over KS Sunday afternoon/evening, likely triggering thunderstorm development in central KS. Storms are expected to progress eastward with time. Severe weather will be possible with this round given the unstable nature of the air mass in place. A more amplified system is then forecast to eject out over the High Plains on Tuesday. A surface low and associated cold front should move through northeast KS sometime during the day Tuesday. Timing will have an impact on the potential severity of thunderstorms. It currently appears that the better chance for severe weather will be just east of the area during the afternoon and evening. Model trends will be monitored for possible changes to timing. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Conditions are favorable for patchy fog to develop again around sunrise Friday. Winds of 15-20kts just off the surface should limit overall VSBY reductions, but have maintained MVFR VSBY for a few hours. Best chances for fog are at KTOP/KMHK in the river valleys. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with light winds becoming southeasterly on Friday. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Flanagan