Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 162353
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
653 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Main area of focus will be around the stalled out cold front located
in southeastern Kansas. A surface high building into Nebraska
will keep surface winds from the northeast and generally keep
temperatures cooler than those of previous days with highs near 70
degrees. A wave noted in western Kansas was acting to produce
showers this morning and as this feature moves east through the
afternoon these showers will continue to move across northern
Kansas. Back to the stalled front, convection around this area
looks to be the most interesting due to nearly 1500 J/kg of CAPE
and sufficient shear for severe storms in east central Kansas.
Storms look to develop around this area in the evening hours,
although some models are hinting that the strongest storms may
stay just south of the CWA. Still, any storm that forms in east
central Kansas will likely stay elevated but large hail would be
the main hazard. Locally heavy rainfall can also be expected with
any storm with areas of east central Kansas possibly seeing up to
an inch more rain this evening and overnight.

Storms push southeast of the area late tonight and Monday looks to
be a dry day with light winds and clearing skies.  High temperatures
will be in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Think the brief reprieve from the rain will hold for much of
Monday night into early Tuesday, with better chances for stronger
storms Tuesday night when the mid level front tightens back up
near our northern border. Nocturnal LLJ over the front could
produce thunderstorms with hail, and area is outlooked for a
marginal risk of severe weather for the overnight hours and higher
chances as you go north. Locally heavy rainfall is also a threat
from these storms.

Could see another break in the rain for Wednesday morning into
afternoon, which could backfire by boosting the instability ahead
of the incoming front on Wednesday evening. Plenty of available
bulk shear and instability for severe storms if this solution and
timing bear out. Next dry day in the forecast of Thursday may be
the last for a while as GFS and EC continue to advertise an upper
low tracking just south of the forecast area and keeping us in the
rain shield for Friday and Saturday - and bringing more chances
for widespread rainfall. Dry conditions could return by Sunday.

Temperatures for the week start out on the warm side with upper
70s on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the front bringing cooler highs
in the 60s for Thursday, with 50s and 60s for the potentially
rainy weekend. Lows in the 50s and 60s fall to 40s and 50s by the
weekend as well.

Rainfall/flood risks will be dependent on timing and duration of
rainfall, as convective systems could cause quick rises in creeks
and streams, while prolonged rainfall would start to tax larger
tributaries. Marginal risk for excessive rainfall initially
returns for the northeast counties overnight Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Scattered showers will continue for at least the next few hours
with impacts in showers likely to be above MVFR per latest
observations. Continued easterly low level flow will bring some
potential for MVFR ceilings in the latter portions of the
forecast. Only confident in a few hours of a mention at this
point.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65



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