Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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580 FXUS63 KDDC 101710 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1210 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A relatively dry pattern is forecast through mid-week. - A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with unseasonably hot temperatures Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning east through the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is shifting east through the Upper Midwest. Relatively dry conditions are forecast to continue through much of the period as the SREF indicates weak ridging aloft pushing east through the Central Plains. Despite an extremely weak flow aloft, there is an outside chance (<20%) for an isolated thunderstorm or two across extreme southwest Kansas late this afternoon/evening as a weak upper level shortwave trough drops southeast out of the Colorado Rockies into the Texas Panhandle. A prevailing southeasterly upslope flow tapping into moisture to our south will support surface dewpoints remaining well up into the 50s(F) across the area. Steepening mid- level lapse rates combined with ample instability will support the potential for thunderstorm development late this afternoon as H5 vort maxima associated with the shortwave drop southeast out of the Rockies into the Southern High Plains, interacting with a stalled frontal boundary well off to the southwest in eastern New Mexico. The HREF does only show a 10% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding .05 of an inch in very extreme southwest Kansas through late Monday night. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected today as departing surface high pressure gives way to south-southeasterlies. This will be slow to erode the cooler air mass in place, only pushing H85 temperatures into the upper teens(C) in central Kansas to near 20C closer to the Colorado border. The latest HREF paints a 50-70% probability of afternoon highs exceeding 80F in extreme southwest Kansas to a 100% probability of above 80F in central Kansas. For tonight, the HREF shows a widespread 60-80% probability of lows dropping below 65F. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Lingering precip chances (20%) into Tuesday will give way to a drier/warming pattern by mid-week as medium range ensembles indicate ridging aloft building across the Desert Southwest into the Western High Plains. The NBM only shows a only a 10% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding even a tenth of an inch Tuesday before conditions really dry out Wednesday and Thursday. More seasonal temperatures return Tuesday as prevailing southerlies enhance warm air advection into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures above 20C in central Kansas to near 25C in extreme southwest Kansas. With the NBM painting a 50-70% probability of temperatures exceeding 85F in central Kansas to a 70-80% probability of nudging above 85F farther west, look for afternoon highs well up into the mid/upper 80s(F) to near 90F. The warming trend continues Wednesday as upper level ridging approaches, sending afternoon highs well above 90F as the NBM supports that with a 70-90% probability. An 80-90% probability of temperatures climbing above 95F on Thursday suggests afternoon highs nearing 100F across much of southwest Kansas. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current southeast winds aoa 12 kts will continue through sunset before weakening to light and variable by 03Z Tuesday. Little change is expected thereafter with only a minor uptick in winds out of the southwest possible at HYS around sunrise Tuesday morning. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJohnson LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...Springer