849
FXUS62 KMHX 010118
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
918 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier high pressure builds overhead through the
weekend. High pressure then shifts offshore early next week with
temps returning to around normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 915 PM Fri...No changes to previous thinking. Mid-level
ridging over the eastern CONUS this evening is expected to build
over the Carolinas overnight in the wake of a departing surface
trough lifting further into the open Atlantic this evening. At
the surface, high pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to
expand over the Carolinas leading to a calm, cool and clear
night. Set up is highly favorable for strong radiational
cooling, and continued the trend of showing low temperatures
below guidance, especially so for the Outer Banks. Given
currently observed Tds in the 40s and 50s and no apparent low
level moisture advection overnight, pushed forecast lows a
couple degrees lower than the prior forecast with more
widespread 40s inland. Only fly in the ointment is potential
insulation from cirrus overhead, although right now the only
areas this could potentially impact are south of Highway 70.

The forecast is close to record-breaking lows...see the CLIMATE
section for details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 425 PM Fri...Meteorological summer kicks off on a slightly
warmer but equally dry note as ridge continues to build overhead
and high pressure remains in place. Once again, suspect guidance
is running too high on Tds and knocked these down a few degrees
during the afternoon hours favoring comfortable values in the
low to mid 40s. With increasing low-level heights, temperatures
will warm into the low to mid 80s inland, upper 70s along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Cool high pressure remains over the area
through the weekend with below normal temperatures and low
humidity expected. Then, the high will slide offshore early
next week with a return to a summery pattern featuring daily
scattered afternoon thunderstorms and highs near normal.

Saturday and Sunday...High pressure will shift offshore Sunday.
Another cool night expected Saturday night due to strong
radiational cooling, and lows could reach the upper 50s to low
60s inland.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure will build offshore
early next week allowing for a return of summer-like warmth and
humidity. Increasing moisture will introduce a risk for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon with the best chances
for rain (~30%) Wednesday and Thursday as weak upper level
impulses move through a mostly zonal flow. Temps will return to
near normal, with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 each
day, and lows mostly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 610 PM Friday...VFR conditions with light winds are
forecast to prevail across all terminals through Sat as high
pressure, centered over the Ohio Valley, continues to build into
the Carolinas from the northwest. Overnight, clear skies and
calm winds prevail. Airmass is too dry to support widespread
fog, but if some terminals decouple effectively enough could see
some spotty, minimal-impact MIFG.

LONG TERM /Saturday aft through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through
the long term as high pressure remains in place across the
region. However, strong overnight cooling this weekend could
result in the formation of patchy fog...bringing the threat of
sub-VFR visibilities to the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Tonight and Saturday/...
As of 915 PM Fri...No changes to previous thinking. Benign
boating conditions to develop over area waters as high pressure
expands over the area from the northwest. Earlier surge in winds
is beginning to diminish to 10-20 kt this evening with winds
forecast to continue diminishing overnight to 10 kt or less.
Winds will become largely light and variable on Saturday as the
high builds overhead. By the afternoon hours, sea breeze
circulations will become the dominant driver of surface flow
with south to southeasterly winds of 5-10 kt expected nearshore.

Currently observed seas of 2-3 feet will remain steady through
tonight, dropping to around 2 feet for all offshore waters by
Saturday (except 1-2 feet nearshore).

LONG TERM /Saturday PM through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Fri...Good boating conditions expected through the
weekend and into early next week with high pressure overhead.

Return flow develops Sunday with winds becoming SSW at 10-15
kts. Winds then briefly strengthen to 15-20 kts Sunday night
before returning to SW 10-15 kts Monday. Winds become southerly
at 5-10 kts on Tuesday. Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through the
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low temps for June 1, Saturday.

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern      48/1966  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 50/1966  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville    45/1930  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 48/1984  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston       42/1984  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville  50/1966  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...TL/SGK
AVIATION...JME/SGK/MS
MARINE...JME/SGK/MS
CLIMATE...MHX