456
FXUS64 KBMX 251834
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1234 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1210 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025

 - Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
   tonight. There is a level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for severe
   thunderstorms with hazards including isolated damaging winds,
   quarter size hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

 - Clear and colder conditions are forecast for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025

Currently watching the effective warm front work quickly
northward. Based on dewpoint it is currently north of Tuscaloosa
and Alabaster, but just south of Birmingham. We have a southerly
wind at the Shelby County Airport with dewpoint at 66 degrees. In
just one hour we have gone from 61 to 66. Montgomery and Auburn
are also at 66 degree dewpoint this hour. We are seeing some
breaks in the clouds ahead of the line of storms is MS and along
and south of the effective warm front. We are monitoring several
weak circulations along the line and ahead so the potential
remains for severe weather and low end chance of a few tornadoes
until the line passes. Given the orientation of Jefferson county
we included it in the tornado watch for the southern half of the
area. Not sure if the effective warm front can pass all the way
through the county before the line of showers and storms to our
west work through. Otherwise timing of the system appears to be on
track and will only make minor changes to the timing through
tonight. Behind the front drier and cooler air will be in place.
Will need to keep an eye on the afternoon dewpoints, with more
information in the fire weather section on that.

As the pattern becomes more progressive over the weekend, zonal
500 mb flow will induce southwesterly flow at 850 mb and low-level
isentropic lift, leading to our next chance of rain late Saturday
into Sunday and Monday. There are some concerns with the current
trends of the blended guidance that needs to be mentioned of
things to watch for. First the current blended model still has
fairly high PoPs for the weekend into the first of next week. The
problem with this is that the latest trends in the deterministic
models show a drier but colder airmass in place. The blended
models are showing the decrease in temperatures, so this places
the forecast in an interesting position (slight to chance PoPs,
with temperatures in the low to mid 30s). I would expect the
trends of the deterministic models to continue with the cooler and
drier scenario so the blended model guidance should catch up over
the next few runs. For now lowered rain chances a touch and
warmed temperatures a few degrees. The probabilistic guidance for
any wintry precipitation remains low, so will just mention wet
weather with only limited thunder during the afternoon timeframe.
Quite a bit of uncertainty after Sunday through Monday and into
next week.

16

Previous discussion:
(Severe storms this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 938 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025

Central Alabama is currently in the wake of the line of severe
storms that produced widespread wind damage from Walker eastward
to Cherokee County. This "first round" of storms was associated
with a potent 75-80kt 500mb shortwave that is now lifting off to
the northeast. Following the morning round of storms, the
question now becomes what the environment will look like for the
"second round" of storms expected to fire ahead of the approaching
cold front to our west. Showers and storms are continuing to
develop along the I-59 corridor at this hour thanks to the
previous outflow boundary left over from this morning`s storms.
The most recent WPC Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion analyzes
the current surface setup very well: A strong low-level southerly
jet is advecting tropical moisture northward and lifting parcels
up and over the outflow boundary, developing the current activity
due to the speed shear and synoptic lift aloft. Storms are moving
across similar areas, so we`ll need to watch for the potential of
localized flooding. Storm drains may also be clogged from recent
falling leaves that could also lead to additional ponding of
water on roadways.

So the question really is what will happen to this old remnant
boundary as we go into the afternoon. CAMs have had a tough time
resolving the current mesoscale situation, as dewpoints remain in
the upper 50s to lower 60s along the I-20 corridor due to the
consistent shower and storm development holding the old "cold
pool" in place at the surface. Looking to the south, however,
upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints are not far away across southern
Mississippi and southwestern Alabama. Surface wind gusts were
observed between 15 and 20 knots in Greenville and Evergreen,
along with gusts over 20 knots in Meridian, MS. So there`s no
question that the low-level jet remains in place and will attempt
to re-supply the tropical and unstable air that was lost due to
the morning round of storms. Eventually, the low-level jet is
still expected to overtake the old outflow boundary and cause
dewpoints to rise into the mid to upper 60s by this afternoon
along the I-20 corridor. Farther to the north along the U.S. 278
corridor, severe chances are much lower, as it will be a race
against time before the front arrives from the west.

With the best upper level forcing now exiting off to the north and
east, we`ll need a good amount of destabilization at the surface
to support severe updrafts. Visible satellite is showing some
sunshine peeking through at times in our far southern and
southwest counties, so we`ll need to watch observation trends
closely. Surface winds have yet to start veering to the south and
west, so supercell-type structures with rotating updrafts will
definitely be possible as we go into the early afternoon hours,
especially south of the I-20 corridor. The northern extent of the
current severe outlook area will remain the biggest question mark
as we watch to see if the old outflow can be overtaken by the low-
level jet.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025

Showers and storms throughout the afternoon north and into the
evening south. Ceilings are generally MVFR with a few pockets of
IFR. Lots of reported LLWS associated with the convection itself
so will not include in TAFS due to the convection. Winds remain
gusty through the early evening along and ahead of the front.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and moist airmass will persist ahead of a front through
tonight with high rain chances. Behind the front, a drier airmass
will surge into the region. Afternoon RH values are expected to
fall to 25-35 percent for Thursday through Saturday. Winds will be
near 10 mph with the potential for gusts around 20 mph from the
south on Tuesday before shifting to the northwest on Wednesday and
Thursday, but weaker.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     50  60  31  52 /  80   0   0   0
Anniston    52  62  32  52 /  90   0   0   0
Birmingham  53  60  34  52 /  70   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  50  61  34  55 /  40   0   0   0
Calera      50  64  33  55 /  80   0   0   0
Auburn      57  67  36  55 /  90   0   0   0
Montgomery  56  66  35  56 /  90   0   0   0
Troy        56  68  35  56 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...16