851
FXUS64 KBMX 040533
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1133 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025

 - Below average temperatures are anticipated for most of the next
   seven days.

 - Another 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected through Saturday,
   potentially approaching 3 inches along and south of the I-85
   corridor. However, no flooding impacts are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1128 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025

Surface ridging will hold on strong today, keeping clouds in place
through the morning under this stable airmass. However, this ridge
will begin to break down into the evening hours, as this new surface
low takes shape in the northern Gulf. Rain chances associated with
this low will begin to increase by the morning hours on Thursday,
with widespread rainfall continuing through the weekend.

The heaviest axis of this rainfall will depend on how far north
this surface low ends up tracking. Right now, it appears the
largest rainfall amounts will stay below I-20, with most locations
here seeing 1-2 inches of rain. Farther south near the I-85
corridor, 3+ inches of rain will be possible, as that is where the
stronger forcing will be along the low pressure. All this rain
will fall over a several day period, so the only impact expected
is additional relief from the ongoing drought.

By Sunday, a longwave trough will begin to drop south through the
Midwest, working into the region by Monday. This will finally push
the rest of the lingering rain to the east, with dry conditions
returning to the region. During the process, another shot of
reinforcing cold air will work in behind a cold front, with lows
Monday night dropping into the mid to upper-20s. Otherwise,
temperatures will generally remain below average for this time of
the year.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025

Reduced visibility ongoing at AUO and TCL currently. Will monitor
trends but have included a TEMPO for low vis at both terminals
through 10z. Rain will begin to overspread the area by morning,
first affecting MGM and AUO. Rain is also possible at EET, TCL,
and BHM during the morning hours, with chances increasing during
the afternoon. Ceilings are likely to fall through MVFR during the
morning and afternoon to IFR by tomorrow evening as rain
continues.

12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will begin to increase by tomorrow morning, as another
system works its way in from the northern Gulf. 1-2 inches of
rainfall are expected through Saturday, with some locations getting
north of 3 inches. These values will heavily depend on where the
heaviest rainfall banding sets up. No flooding is expected, and the
only impact across the region will be continued drought relief.
Otherwise, MinRH values will remain above 50%, and fire weather
concerns will remain limited through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     28  50  35  51 /   0  30  90  50
Anniston    30  50  38  52 /   0  40 100  60
Birmingham  31  50  40  51 /  10  50  90  40
Tuscaloosa  32  49  38  51 /  20  80  90  40
Calera      32  51  39  53 /  10  60  90  50
Auburn      35  49  43  54 /  10  70  90  80
Montgomery  34  49  43  54 /  20  80  90  70
Troy        35  49  41  55 /  20  90  90  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION...12