862
FXUS64 KBMX 071840
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1240 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1240 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025

-  There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for a couple severe
   thunderstorms through this evening. Threats include damaging
   wind gusts and hail up to quarter size.

-  There is a medium to high chance of freezing temperatures
   Sunday night, focused on the northern-half of central Alabama.
   A freeze across all of central Alabama is expected Monday
   night. Breezy conditions Monday morning will result in wind
   chill values as low as the upper 10s for the northern-third of
   central Alabama.

-  Breezy conditions combined with low relative humidities may
   result in increased fire danger on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025

Broad troughing is in place across the eastern U.S. with a few
embedded shortwaves evident. One impulse is bringing a batch
of moderate to heavy showers near the 80 corridor of central
Alabama. Otherwise, and elsewhere, activity is isolated and light
as of the noon hour. Water vapor imagery shows another impulse
approaching from Missouri, of which will help push a surface front
our way tonight with a batch of showers and thunderstorms. Through
the course of today and tonight, forecast soundings suggest the
low levels will only be weakly unstable though, due to cooling
aloft, weak to moderate MUCAPE will be present. Bulk shear values
are forecast to increase, yielding a favorable wind profile. We
are lacking an appreciable amount of forcing, though. In all, a
couple severe thunderstorms could manage to develop with a risk
for brief strong wind gusts and hail up to quarter size, mainly
due to the nature of the instability profile aloft.

Another trough will send a stronger cold front our way on Sunday
with a low to medium chance for showers early in the morning.
Winds will become breezy and gusty from the northwest through the
day, which will usher in a much colder and drier air mass. Monday
night is the climax of this particular cold surge, when a freeze
is expected to occur across all of central Alabama with
temperatures in the lower to middle 20s. This puts records for the
day within reach. See the climate section below. Temperatures
then moderate for the rest of the week with rain- free weather.

The weekend system will also feature wrap-around moisture that
will produce upslope snow across portions of Appalachia. A few
ensemble members show the potential for some flurry activity to
get as far south as far northeast Alabama and north Georgia Monday
morning. We`ll monitor trends.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025

A mix of VFR-MVFR ceilings are expected this afternoon and into a
chunk of this evening before IFR develops around or by 06z.
Showers and a couple thunderstorms will occur at times through
tonight, with a period of drizzle along with the morning low
clouds. This will also affect visibility. Conditions should
gradually improve toward or to VFR around 18z-21z Saturday.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH concerns don`t return until Monday and Tuesday due to a
post-frontal air mass. Values are forecast to reach the 20s and
30s across central Alabama, and as low as the lower 20s near the
80 corridor of south-central Alabama. Winds on Monday will be
northwest near 10-15 mph with 20-25 mph gusts, becoming southerly
on Tuesday near 5-10 mph.

Periods of showers and a couple thunderstorms are forecast today
and tonight with another round that may occur early Sunday
morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025

Record Low Temperatures:

November 10:
KEET: 30/1996

November 11:
KBHM: 25/1926
KEET: 27/1996
KANB: 24/1950
KTCL: 26/1953
KMGM: 29/1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  57  75  52 /  40  60  20  30
Anniston    75  58  74  54 /  40  60  20  40
Birmingham  73  60  75  54 /  40  50  20  30
Tuscaloosa  75  60  78  52 /  40  40  20  30
Calera      76  59  78  54 /  40  50  20  30
Auburn      76  61  76  59 /  50  60  20  30
Montgomery  77  62  79  59 /  50  50  20  30
Troy        76  62  78  59 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite