878
FXUS64 KBMX 051756
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1156 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1148 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025

 - Below average high temperatures are anticipated through
   Tuesday, with the exception of Sunday being near average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025

One more day of rain is anticipated, as the "conveyer belt of
moisture" remains in place. However, troughing will begin to drop
south through the Midwest during the evening hours of Sunday. This
will allow for the conveyer belt to be shut off, as the cold front
cuts the moisture by Monday. With that being said, rain chances
could actually expand during the day on Sunday, as the trough is
forming a bit farther to the west. This will allow for the low
pressure and cold front to work farther north, bringing better
forcing with it. This rain shouldn`t be much more than showers, with
it quickly exiting the region by Monday morning.

Fog will also be possible tonight and tomorrow night, given a lack of
winds and plenty of moisture at the surface. This fog is likely to
be patchy in some areas, but quite dense in others. Depending on how
fast winds decouple, widespread dense fog will be possible, and that
will be something we`ll keep an eye on here the next two nights.

Conditions will briefly stabilize behind this front, with most of
the region falling below freezing by Tuesday morning. From here,
temperatures will gradually warm, before isolated rain chances
return ahead of another system on Thursday AM. This system will once
again allow for cold air to get reinforced across the region, with
temperatures continuing to run slightly below average into next
weekend.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025

Low CIGs are likely to linger for the majority of this forecast
period, as rain remains ongoing across the region. Most terminals
will remain steady in MVFR/IFR category, before CIGs drop overnight.
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are possible past 06/03, with fog
possible during this timeframe as well. Most terminals should mix
out back into MVFR category by 06/16z, with some terminals reaching
VFR category by then as well.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MinRH values will remain above 50% for most of the next seven days,
even with rain chances tapering off by tomorrow. Before this
happens, one last push of rain is anticipated on Sunday. This will
wet fuels enough to keep the fire weather concerns limited through
at least the middle of the upcoming workweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     50  33  53  30 /  10  10  10   0
Anniston    51  37  53  35 /  20  20  20  10
Birmingham  49  37  53  36 /  10  10  20  10
Tuscaloosa  50  36  54  37 /  10  10  20  10
Calera      53  36  55  36 /  10  20  20  10
Auburn      53  42  53  40 /  60  40  60  10
Montgomery  53  41  53  41 /  50  40  50  10
Troy        54  42  52  42 /  70  50  70  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.../44/
AVIATION.../44/