682
FXUS64 KBMX 141119
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
519 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 516 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025

- Cool mornings with warm afternoons will continue into early next
  week.

- Dry conditions will continue into the weekend as drought
  conditions persist across much of the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Friday)
Issued at 1130 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025

Longwave ridging extended over much of the Central Plains while
expansive surface high pressure was centered across Eastern
Tennessee. Mostly clear skies were observed with winds near calm
at most reporting sites.

Today through Sunday.

Longwave ridging will remain over much of the middle of the
country today while surface high pressure migrates further east,
becoming centered across the Carolinas by this afternoon. A
sprawling upper low will slowly move inland over California this
weekend while the broad ridging to our west gradually deamplifies
and expands over the South-Central Plains.Surface high pressure to
our northeast will gradually migrate southward toward the Florida
Peninsula by Sunday as a cold front moves toward the area from
the northwest. A persistently dry airmass will remain in place
through the weekend as drought conditions linger. Skies will
remain fair to partly cloudy with low temperatures continuing to
moderate from the 40s this morning areawide to readings in the 50s
across much of the area by Sunday morning. High temperatures will
be in the 70s areawide with exception for a few 80s in the far
southwest by Sunday afternoon.

Monday through Friday.

Global and regional guidance has continued to better converge
with time over the past 48 hours in the depiction of the upper low
over Southern California this weekend opening into a shortwave
trough as it moves over Nevada and then deamplifying as it becomes
absorbed into the northern stream by Tuesday. Another upper low
looks to move over much of California late Monday into Tuesday. A
weak front will move south across the area on Monday, only
resulting in some increase in clouds and some slightly cooler
temperatures north and east as dry conditions are expected to
persist. Broad ridging will remain positioned to our west over the
Southern Plains to start the work week, followed by expected
amplification as it builds over much of the Mississippi River
Valley Region toward midweek due to the upstream closed low moving
east over the Desert Southwest Region. The front will stall along
the Central Gulf Coast as surface low pressure develops across
the Central Plains while surface high pressure remains to our
southeast with a secondary high across the Ohio River Valley
Region.

From Wednesday through Friday, the divergence in model solutions
remains greater than typical and continues to yield less certainty
in the forecast during this time frame. Mid-level ridging is
expected to continue to amplify over much of the East- Central
portion of the country as it approaches the local area from the
west Wednesday into Thursday. The surface front to our south will
lift northward as a warm front by midweek as lower pressure
organizes across the Central Plains states. The upper low that
impacts the Desert Southwest may open into a deep trough and
migrate quicker east, or it may remain a closed low and propagate
more slowly. Generally, expect this feature to dive further south
over Northwest Mexico and Southwest Texas on Wednesday into
Thursday while downstream amplified ridging will likely be
centered over the forecast area during this time frame. The
forecast area will be well entrenched in the synoptic warm sector
with low pressure across the Central Plains, a cold front moving
east across much of Texas with the warm front across the Northern
Tennessee Valley and surface high pressure across the northeastern
states. The ridging will move east of the area late Thursday into
Friday as the closed low or upper trough advances east over the
Southern Plains. Expect low pressure to track northeast from the
Central Plains into the Northern Ohio River Valley by Friday with
the advancing cold front moving across the Mississippi River
Valley during this time frame.

Partly cloudy skies are forecast through midweek with a few
(15-25%) showers across the far north and northwest late Monday
night, extending across the northern third of the area on Tuesday
then persisting across the northwest half of the forecast area
through Wednesday night. Isolated (20-40%) chances for showers
across the northwest half of the area Thursday into Friday when
chances increase to scattered (45-55%) across the northwestern
third of the area. Limited thunderstorm potential will exist
Tuesday through Thursday with better chances on Friday given this
most likely forecast scenario unfolding. Low temperatures will
continue to moderate from readings in the mid to upper 40s north
to the low 50s south Monday morning to readings areawide in the
50s by Wednesday morning and persisting through late week. High
temperatures will range from near 70 far north to near 80
southwest on Monday, followed by readings from the mid 70s
northeast to the low 80s southwest by Wednesday and Thursday.
Guidance depicts high temperatures decreasing into the upper 60s
northeast to the mid 70s southwest on Thursday and Friday...
potentially due to the strengthening surface high pressure to the
northeast, but this could change as the overall forecast
uncertainty decreases with time for this time frame.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025

LIFR VIS will linger at KMGM through 14/16z due to FG, but that
should quickly mix out once the sun comes up. From there, VFR
conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will continue through the upcoming weekend. RH
values will drop into the low 30 percent range this afternoon
across the southeast portion of the forecast area. RH values will
decrease Saturday afternoon in the mid 30 percent range across the
far southeast portion of the area. Winds will be light today into
Saturday, then increase later in the weekend from the south and
southwest with gradual increases in lower-level moisture.
Significant fire potential remains low despite the continuing
drought across much of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  42  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    74  46  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  74  49  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  77  48  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      77  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      74  46  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  75  44  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        75  43  77  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION.../44/