742
FXUS64 KBMX 240553
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1153 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1132 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday with a level
   1 out of 5 risk for a couple severe thunderstorms.

 - Clear and colder conditions are forecast for Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025

Overall not much of a change to the previous forecast. The far
western areas have been placed in a day 2 marginal so we will just
adjust the beginning time of the activity, still expected to begin
to work in after midnight with any elevated strong to marginally
severe storms possible in the far west as early as 3 to 6 am amd
then slide east through the morning. Really looks like we have two
rounds of activity. The first wave would be the morning activity
with mainly elevated convection with hail and perhaps some
damaging winds with the more persistent updrafts, thus resulting
in a stronger downdraft. Most models are in fairly good agreement
with the potential but slightly differ on the timing and eastward
extent. The second wave will likely develop in the afternoon,
mainly across the southeast. The GFS is a little slower than the
Euro, but is also more laid over, thus not as potent. Another
caveat to any severe weather would be the widespread nature of the
rain during the morning. The CAMS are now coming in with a
differing opinion on this as well. A more focused and slower
scenario would allow for the redevelopment in the southeast. We
will be working on some timing maps this afternoon and will be out
later.

16

Previous discussion:
(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025

Early this week:

Southerly flow kicks back in on Monday, once again increasing our
margin above seasonal normals.

Tuesday`s active weather:

A pronounced trough over the Desert Southwest today is forecast to
become more broad by the time it swings by our region. A key item
is that through the course of this evolution, its axis of forcing
quickly ejects to the northeast. This should leave us with a bit
of a disjointed setup in terms of severe weather; however, a
sheared wind profile is forecast to envelop the region with the
prospect for at least a weakly unstable air mass, so its worth
some attention.

Forecast models suggest the initial wave of showers and
thunderstorms should arrive across northwest Alabama around
midnight. Though the trough axis would be at its most favorable
proximity at this time, in the absence of appreciable warm
advection to overcome boundary layer cooling, surface-based
instability is shown to be nil. Thunderstorms could still occur,
though, due to weak instability aloft, but the severe risk would
be low in this environment.

Showers and thunderstorms will advance across the rest of central
Alabama through the course of Tuesday. Cloudiness plus the
anticipated coverage and reoccurring nature of activity may keep
surface-based instability fairly modest; combined with veering
surface and low-level flow, and the main low-level jet corridor
pulling away, the severe risk looks to remain low at this time.
Still, there will be ample speed shear so we`ll have to closely
monitor other environmental parameters.

Showers and thunderstorms should draw to a close early Wednesday
morning with variable cloudiness and a northwest breeze through
the day. A chillier air mass will be inbound from the northwest,
arriving Wednesday night.

Late week:

High pressure will be in control on Thursday and Friday, featuring
clear weather and cold mornings/and cool to mild afternoons.

The weekend:

High pressure will move to the east on Saturday. A broad
troughing pattern across the western CONUS will send a series of
shortwaves eastward. If the faster model solutions are correct, we
could see rain return for the second-half of the weekend.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025

Conditions as of 05:30z Monday are as low as LIFR at TCL and MGM
due to dense river fog. Flight categories may vary at both
terminals through the overnight due to the ebb and flow of the
fog, so TAFs include this as prevailing MVFR with tempo LIFR
through ~14z.

Through the rest of Monday, VFR conditions are forecast with a
light southerly wind. Multiple rounds of showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected from overnight Monday through Tuesday;
thus, forthcoming TAFs issuances will become busier in that
respect.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no concerns with MinRHs through Wednesday. A drier air
mass will be in place Thursday through Saturday with afternoon MinRHs
reaching the 30s for much, if not all, of central Alabama.
Locations near and south of the 80 corridor of south-central
Alabama may slip into the 20s during that stretch.

Winds will be near 10 mph with the potential for gusts around 20
mph from the south on Tuesday and from the northwest on Wednesday.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect
central Alabama overnight Monday through Tuesday. This activity
will vacate the region by early Wednesday morning with rain-free
weather forecast from the remainder of Wednesday through Saturday.
Additional rain chances return starting Sunday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     42  74  55  72 /   0   0  60  90
Anniston    46  75  58  73 /   0   0  60  90
Birmingham  49  74  59  73 /   0   0  70  90
Tuscaloosa  49  76  60  75 /   0   0  70  90
Calera      49  77  58  75 /   0   0  60  90
Auburn      54  75  59  76 /   0   0  30  60
Montgomery  51  78  59  79 /   0   0  30  80
Troy        51  77  59  79 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite