782
FXUS64 KBMX 270155
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
755 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 755 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025

 - Clear and colder conditions expected on Thanksgiving Day.

 - A rainy pattern should take hold for Saturday night through
   Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 755 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025

Mostly clear skies are overhead this evening as another
reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air filters in from the
northwest. Surface winds remain between 5 and 10mph in most
locations, which will gradually diminish through the overnight
hours. As the boundary layer decouples especially for sheltered
locations, temperatures will drop the fastest after midnight,
while those that stay mixed within the higher elevations will stay
a bit warmer overnight tonight. A weak 500mb shortwave diving
southeast into the region will bring some high clouds into
northern Alabama between midnight and sunrise Thanksgiving
morning. Those clouds may keep temperatures from falling as low as
they could, but we`ll still have some spots along the Highway 278
corridor that will likely drop to the freezing mark with plenty of
frost development. Low to mid 30s are forecast elsewhere across
the remainder of the forecast area.

56/GDG

Previous discussion:
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025

The transition to a more active weather pattern will continue
through the next 7 day forecast period. Surface high pressure
building into the southeast states will help keep conditions dry
across central Alabama through the Thanksgiving holiday and into
the early weekend. However, a series of upper level shortwave
troughs will bring several waves of showers to our area, most
likely starting Saturday night and lasting as long as Tuesday.
While it won`t rain through that entire period, there`s likely to
be 2 to 3 waves of showers during that time, totaling another 1
to 2 inches of rain. Instability appears to have no time to really
recover, and chances of thunderstorms through this period are
pretty remote. As for temperatures -- although it will be
decidedly colder than it has been recently, nothing in the models
suggest anything that is vastly out of the ordinary.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Northwesterly surface winds will become light or variable
overnight, picking back up to just under 10 knots on Thanksgiving
Day.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air will move into the region today, with afternoon RH
values dropping to 35-45 percent. Afternoon RH values will
decrease to 25-35 percent for Thursday through Saturday. Northwest
winds of 10-15 mph are expected on this afternoon, with a
decrease to 7-11 mph for Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     30  51  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    33  52  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  34  51  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  34  54  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      33  55  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      38  54  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  36  55  30  53 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        36  55  31  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...56/GDG
AVIATION...56/GDG