640
FXUS64 KBMX 250549
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1149 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1149 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025

 - Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight
   through Tuesday. There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe
   thunderstorms with hazards including isolated damaging winds,
   quarter size hail, and perhaps a couples of tornadoes.

 - Clear and colder conditions are forecast for Thanksgiving Day.

 - The next chance of rain may come on Sunday, marking the
   beginning of a wetter weather pattern.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tuesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1149 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025

An band of elevated convection will continue to organize to our
west tonight as an upstream shortwave approaches from the Ark-
La-Tex region. This activity will move into our northwestern
counties between 1 AM and 3 AM, and progress eastward toward the
I-59 corridor around 6 AM. As the associated shortwave skirts by
to our north, a trailing confluence band will be left in wake of
this early morning round of convection. Weak subsidence will allow
surface-based CAPE to build in the late morning into the afternoon
as mid to upper 60s dewpoints advect northward. Eventually
broad/weak cyclonic height curvature and weak height falls,
combined with daytime heating, will promote additional convective
development around 18z within confluence zones. Due to the
weak/subtle nature of the forcing, scattered cellular activity is
expected. A lingering low-level jet should slowly weaken through
the daylight hours, ranging from 30-40 knots as storms mature.
Though hodographs will not be particularly large, 0-3 km SRH of
200-300 m2/s2 will support weak to moderate mesocyclones within
the strongest cells, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

The current remarkable stretch of above normal temperatures will
come to an end as a front surges through the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The establishment of a large trough over the
eastern CONUS will result in days of afternoon highs in the 50s
and cold nights. As the pattern becomes more progressive over the
weekend, zonal 500 mb flow will induce southwesterly flow at 850 mb
and low-level isentropic lift, leading to our next chance of rain
late Saturday into Sunday and Monday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings will develop and spread northward through the
first 6 hours of the TAF period. An organized line of storms will
approach and perhaps affect KTCL and KBHM around 12Z with gusts
up to 30 knots and IFR visibility. Additional scattered showers
and thunderstorms will pass near/over all sites at various times
through much of the remainder of the TAF period.

87/Grantham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and moist airmass will persist ahead of a front on Tuesday
along with high rain chances. Behind the front, a drier airmass
will surge into the region. Afternoon RH values are expected to
fall to 25-35 percent for Thursday through Saturday. Winds will
be near 10 mph with the potential for gusts around 20 mph from the
south on Tuesday before shifting to the northwest on Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     54  74  50  61 /  60  90  60   0
Anniston    57  74  54  62 /  50  80  80   0
Birmingham  58  74  52  61 /  60  90  50   0
Tuscaloosa  57  77  51  61 /  70  90  30   0
Calera      56  77  53  64 /  50  80  60   0
Auburn      59  76  59  67 /  30  60  80   0
Montgomery  58  79  57  67 /  20  70  70   0
Troy        58  79  58  69 /  20  40  70   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...87/Grantham
AVIATION...87/Grantham