Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
068 FXUS64 KBMX 301129 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 629 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025 - No hazardous weather impacts are anticipated the next seven days. However, drought conditions are most likely going to increase across the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1207 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025 Today, the state will be between two systems, the high pressure over the MS River Valley slowly moving eastward, and the lower pressure off the east coast. There is plenty of moisture and upper level support as a weak low moves between these features and across the state for light to moderate isolated showers to develop and move over the northeast and east. Have left mention of PoP at a minimum for now due to uncertainty of CAMs. Activity could linger into the early evening, before weakening through the night. By Wednesday, the high will begin to influence the area more, with the low moving to the east. Easterly low and mid level flow will set up, with drier air advecting into the state by Wednesday afternoon. Dry conditions and warm temperatures in the 80s will be expected. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1207 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025 High pressure and flow out of the east will continue through the end of the work week and into the weekend. Dry weather and temps in the 80s will remain each day. By Sunday, models are in decent agreement that a surface low will develop and bring rain back to the area. There is some uncertainty of where this low will move, but with low and mid level flow transitioning to out of the south by late saturday, there should be plenty of moisture for scattered to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms returning the area sometime late Sunday and possibly into Monday. 24 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2025 MVFR ceilings prevailing at ASN, AUO, and MGM this morning. VFR conditions are expected after 15 to 17z and through the afternoon at all TAF sites. There is a low chance for convection in the afternoon in the eastern half of the state. Though left mention out of each TAF for now due to uncertainty in coverage and timing. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... The area should remain mostly dry, with minRH values will fall into the low to mid-40s by Wednesday. Given the sharp east shift in the tropical trends, no real moisture return is expected until next weekend, with only scattered rain chances the next seven days or so. Because of this, drought conditions will remain ongoing, with additional expansion possible given the lack of rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 86 62 86 59 / 20 20 0 0 Anniston 83 63 85 61 / 20 20 0 0 Birmingham 87 66 87 64 / 20 10 10 0 Tuscaloosa 90 67 88 64 / 10 0 10 0 Calera 87 65 87 63 / 20 10 10 0 Auburn 82 64 84 62 / 20 20 0 0 Montgomery 87 66 86 63 / 20 10 0 0 Troy 83 64 84 62 / 20 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...16