533
FXUS61 KCAR 091132
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
632 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approaches today, cross the area tonight
through Monday, then moves north of the region Tuesday. Upper
level disturbances will cross the region Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
630 AM Update: Updates made to the aviation section below with
the issuance of the 12z TAFs. Otherwise the previous forecast
remains on track.

2 AM Update: A winter weather advisory has been issued for the
north, for up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation tonight
which could lead to slick travel conditions early Monday
morning, particularly on any elevated surfaces such as
overpasses.

Previous Discussion:
High pressure remains through the day today with light and
variable winds and dry weather. Another low pressure system will
approach from the west. The first to reach our CWA will be a
lifting warm front this afternoon, which will bring the first
round of precipitation into the Central Highlands and lifting
north into the North Woods. With overcast skies limiting surface
heating and a colder air mass in place, this warm front may
result in snow as precipitation begins, particularly in the
higher terrain of the Central Highlands. Even if temperatures
are marginal for rain or snow: the 00z KCAR sounding shows that
there is a large layer of dry air between 800mb and 600mb, and
evaporative cooling will aid in keeping precip snow instead of
melting to rain as it falls. For the Interior Downeast region,
any precip that falls with the warm front may begin as rain
since temperatures could lift a little higher in this area due
to breaks in cloud cover, and initial temperatures in the low
40s will lend to a cold rain instead.

The bulk of the precipitation will push into the forecast area
overnight tonight, with a dual surface low setup as one low
center tracks north of the area and the other low tracks
offshore. More precipitation will spread across the entire
forecast area as the low centers move in closer and the full
atmospheric column saturates. Precip will begin as snow in the
north, and rain Downeast.

In this complex pattern, the warm front will be slow in northern
progression as the parent low rides along the boundary, and lead
to a prolonged transition zone from snow to rain, with freezing
rain in between. Freezing rain will begin Sunday evening in the
Central Highlands through southern Aroostook county, then
gradually shift north through the night, with the bulk of
freezing rain being over the North Woods. The front will be
progressive enough such that freezing rain does not linger more
than a couple of hours in any one location, but over those
couple of hours, a thin coating of ice could develop,
particularly on elevated surfaces which have cooled faster than
the ground this time of the year. As warm air continues to
advect into the region, freezing rain will switch to plain rain,
and temperatures will quickly warm such that any ice that
developed will quickly melt. Temperatures will likely reach 40
to 50 degrees across most of the forecast area by mid morning.

Rain will linger across the CWA through the rest of the day on
Monday as temperatures continue to warm through the day under
persistent warm air advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday night: The large upper level trof will continue to push
the surface low across the region. Models indicate that the
center of the low should track through the center of the state,
bringing higher changes of heavier precip on the backside of
the center later in the night. The weaker S flow should keep
temps above freezing, thus the precip should be all rain.

Tuesday: The = center of the low should exit over the maritimes
by the morning. As the low exits, a surface ridge should move
into the area. The LLJ should increase during the day causing W
winds to increase and become gusty by the afternoon. In
addition, the W winds should bring colder air into the region.
With the remaining moisture in the area, any precip should be
snow in the west and rain in the east.

Tuesday night: Gusty W winds should continue into the night as
the weak ridge moves through the area. Due to the colder airmass
settling in, any remaining precip should be snow. Temps in the
20s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next trof is expected to weaken before moving into the area
on Thursday. The precip should be light, then clear out by the
weekend as high pressure builds into New England. The next
system is expected by early next week, though models are
inconsistent with the track and timing of the system. Models are
still hinting to a fairly active rest of the week for next week.
Temps expected to be below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR across all terminals through the day today, with
winds light and variable. Rain will begin to move in at Downeast
terminals this evening by around 00z, and snow will begin to
spread across northern terminals at or shortly after 00z, and
cigs will begin to fall towards IFR. A period of freezing rain
is possible from KPQI north, beginning after midnight tonight.
Any freezing rain that develops will only last an hour or two at
most before transitioning to plain rain as temperatures warm
through the night. IFR cigs will last through the day on Monday
as rain continues across all terminals. Winds light and variable
today, increasing to 5 to 10 kts out of the E tonight with
gusts 20 to 25 kts, becoming light and variable during the day
on Monday. LLWS possible along the boundary at northern
terminals after 06z tonight.

SHORT TERM: Monday night...IFR/LIFR. Rain, tapering to
rain/snow showers north, tapering to rain showers Downeast.
Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/southwest around 10
knots.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain/snow showers north, with a
chance of rain showers Downeast. West winds 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to around 20 knots.

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain/snow showers north.
VFR Downeast with a slight chance of rain showers early. West winds
10 to 15 knots.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain/snow showers north. A chance
of rain showers Downeast. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR. A chance of rain/snow showers, then a
chance of snow showers north. A chance of rain showers, then a
slight chance of rain/snow showers Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain/snow showers north. A
slight chance of rain showers Downeast. West/northwest winds
around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will begin to increase ahead of the approaching
low pressure system, with gusts reaching 25 kts this evening,
and an SCA is in place beginning at 22z. Wind gusts could
briefly approach 30 to 35 kts overnight before decreasing. Seas
will increase as well, reaching 5 to 8 ft through the night
tonight. Winds will fall below SCA criteria through the day on
Monday, while seas will slowly follow in decreasing. Rain will
move in this evening and last through the day on Monday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas at SCA conditions Tuesday. Gale
force wind gusts possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain
Monday into Monday night. A chance of rain showers Tuesday into
Tuesday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Monday for MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Monday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...AES
Short Term...ARL
Long Term...ARL
Aviation...AES/ARL
Marine...AES/ARL