446
FXUS61 KCAR 080422
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1122 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track along the Downeast coast overnight,
exiting across Nova Scotia late. High pressure builds in
behind this system through Monday night, then slides offshore on
Tuesday. Another weak low tracks across the Gulf of Maine
Tuesday night. A stronger low pressure system tracks from the
Great Lakes Wednesday morning to the southern Canadian Maritimes
by Thursday morning, followed by a cold front crossing the area
on Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
No change to the Winter Weather Advisory. Intensifying low
pressure will track along the Downeast coast overnight, exiting
across Nova Scotia late. Aloft, the supporting upper trof also
crosses the region. An area of snow will cross the region with
the low. The greater snow accumulations will generally occur
south of a line from Greenville to Houlton. Generally expect
overnight snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in that area.
Slightly greater accumulations, 3 to 5 inches, could occur
across portions of central/coastal Washington county where the
intensifying low could wrap back additional snow. A Winter
Weather Advisory remains in effect for that area. Snow totals
diminish across northern portions of the forecast area tapering
to less than an inch across the Saint John Valley. Winds will
also begin to increase later tonight. Low temperatures tonight
will range from around zero to 5 above north, to 10 to 15
Downeast. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along
with expected overnight temperatures, clouds and snow chances.

Previous Discussion...
Behind the low, winds will increase with high pressure building
in, mainly offshore with the northern flow. See more detail in
the marine section. As for the land, the high building in will
also bring another round of very cold air, so temperatures
Monday and Monday night will be well below normal, and below 0F
in many locations.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages
-Light snow accumulation Tuesday night
-Larger system approaches Wednesday with snow and rain

The high pressure system exits over the waters on Tuesday,
making for clear skies in the morning. Clouds start to move in
in the afternoon as the next low approaches. A warm frontal
boundary should stretch well to the north, switching winds to
onshore flow. For Tuesday night, with weak low pressure system
should move into the region. The onshore flow should keep temps
above zero, though in the single digits or teens across the
area. The weak low pressure system should bring some light snow
across the area with higher amounts round 2 inches in Downeast.

For Wednesday, a larger low pressure system moves in later in
the day. Warmer S flow should push temps into the 20s in the
north and upper 30s in the south. Snow is expected to be light
in the afternoon with higher amounts in the Central Highlands.
Areas south of the Central Highlands should see a mix of
rain/snow or rain.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages
-Active period with cold single digit nighttime temperatures

The low pressure system should exit the area by Thursday,
making for warmer temps, breezy winds, and cloudy skies. Upper
level models show a fairly active extended period as the upper
level trof swings through one shortwave after another. The
further south jet stream puts the area in the left exit region,
thus a more active area. The models lose consistency towards the
end of the week due to uncertainty of the trof pattern.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, across northern areas
overnight with snow. VFR/MVFR early Monday with snow ending,
then VFR Monday afternoon and Monday night. Across Downeast
areas, MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR overnight with snow. VFR/MVFR
early Monday with snow ending, then VFR Monday afternoon and
Monday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
north/northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots
overnight. Northwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to
25 knots Monday. Northwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts
up to 20 knots Monday night.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday...VFR. W winds becoming S 5-10 kts.

Tue night...MVFR/IFR in snow. Light S winds.

Wed...MVFR/IFR in snow north and rain south. SSE winds 5-10
kts.

Wed night...MVFR in exiting snow. Variable winds around 5 kts.

Thu...MVFR early, then VFR. W winds 5-10 kts.

Fri...VFR.  W winds 5-10 kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will increase overnight. A Gale Warning remains
in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the
intra-coastal, from 7 AM to 1 PM Monday. Small craft advisory
conditions are then expected later Monday into Monday night. On
the intra-coastal waters a Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect from 4 AM to 11 PM Monday. Snow overnight into early
Monday.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions expected Tuesday. Could see a
return to gale force conditions Tuesday night, otherwise SCA
conditions are likley mid to late week.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for MEZ017-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 11 PM EST Monday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...CN/LF
Short Term...ARL
Long Term...ARL
Aviation...CN/ARL
Marine...CN/ARL