737
FXUS61 KCAR 291836
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
136 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through tonight, then exits to the east
on Sunday,as low pressure approaches from the west. A warm
front crosses Sunday evening, followed by a cold front crossing
Maine late Sunday night. A secondary cold front crosses the area
on Monday, followed by high pressure building in through Monday
night. A coastal low approaches from the south on Tuesday,
passes offshore Tuesday night, then exits into the southern
Maritimes on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

-Light snow develops across the north Sunday afternoon with
 snow changing to rain for the Bangor region and Downeast.

-Period of gusty winds Downeast coast Sunday evening into Sunday
 night with gusts up to 45 mph possible

Surface high moves east and out into the western atlantic to the
south of Nova Scotia tonight. Aloft, the mid to upper level
ridge axis builds across the region overnight. Expect partial
clearing this evening before high to mid level clouds build in
after midnight. Lows will range from the mid to upper teens
north and near 20 for the Bangor region and Downeast.

Clouds increase quickly Sunday morning as low pressure tracks
northeast through the Great Lakes region. Warm advection in the
low to mid levels results in precipitation developing across
the region by afternoon. Along the coast, expect mainly rain
through Sunday night, although a brief snow/rain mix is expected
at the onset. For the Bangor region and Downeast, precipitation
starts as snow then quickly transitions to rain in the
afternoon. Little if any snow accumulation is expected in the
Bangor region before the changeover. Across the far north,
generally expecting 1 to 3 inches along the Route 1 corridor
from the Houlton area north toward the Caribou/Presque Isle
region. For the St John Valley through the North Maine Woods
generally expecting 2 to 4 inches Sunday afternoon through the
evening Sunday. Precipitation winds down pretty quickly from
west to east Sunday evening as low pressure tracks to the
northeast of the region. Most areas should be precipitation
free after midnight.

One potential concern across Downeast areas, especially the
coast, Sunday evening into Sunday night is gusty south winds. A
925 Mb jet of 45 to 55 kt is expected to translate eastward
during that period. Not quite confident enough that we will see
full mixing of these winds to the surface but think brief gusts
to 45 mph will be possible along the Downeast coast and higher
terrain. Cant totally rule out needing a wind advisory for
Sunday evening into Sunday night for portions of Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key message:
1) High uncertainty remains with the storm on Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain cold.

Key message 1...
High variability in the solutions for the storm on Tuesday
remains. GFS continues a further south trend for the track,
aligning more with the EC, while the Canadian continues to show
a snowier solution with the storm tracking closer to the coast.
CAMs are just beginning to show this storm, so their influence
is not really helpful just yet to discern the details. Ensembles
also continue to show a further south trend with the low
center, which would limit the amount of snowfall expected. The
heaviest band still looks like it will be in Downeast, but there
continues to be a not-insignificant possibility that this storm
will be far enough offshore that we will see less than 4 inches
over the mainland. Right now, ensembles indicate a 20 to 30%
chance of Downeast receiving more than 6 inches of snow, with a
greater than 30% chance of more than 3 inches over a broader
area, from the Central Highlands through Southern Aroostook. The
trend seems to be the thing to watch at the moment to determine
whether this precip band will end up closer to the coast or
not.

More certain during this time period are northerly winds
increasing during the day on Tuesday, accompanied by cold
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key messages:

2) Impacts from the storm on Tuesday will continue into Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with moderate to high confidence on winds
and low confidence on snow totals.

3) A possibility of snow squalls on Thursday, impacting daytime
travel in the north with low visibility and gusty winds.

Key message 2...The storm will continue moving northward
Tuesday night into Wednesday, so whatever precip ends up falling
will continue through the overnight hours. There is higher
confidence that northerly winds will continue to increase, with
the potential for gale warnings over the waters. Another trend
in the models is that the speed of this system seems to be
increasing, which would limit the length of time precip falls
over northern Maine, therefore also reducing the amount. Most
precip will end Wednesday morning, but strong northerly winds
will continue with cold air behind the front. This will keep
highs on Wednesday and Thursday mainly below freezing, with lows
in the teens over night.

Key message 3...On Thursday, an Arctic front will cross the
region during the day, bringing a band of snowfall and much
colder air. This pattern looks fairly convective in the cool air
mass ahead of the stronger cold front, so some periods of
intense snow showers are possible. Winds aloft will also
strengthen as the cold front moves through, bringing a LLJ of 30
to 40 knots with front passage. With the convective activity,
the possibility of gusty winds mixing down to the surface is
higher, so the factors are coming together for snow squalls. It
is still too far out to evaluate this situation with the CAMs,
so we will need to keep watch as we get closer in time to see
whether these factors continue to line up.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected at all terminals tonight into
Sunday morning. Conditions decrease to MVFR/IFR in snow and rain
Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening (High Confidence). Conditions
will improve to MVFR/VFR after midnight Sunday. NW wind 10 to
20 kt becoming light and variable tonight. S to SE wind 10 to 15
kt Sunday into Sunday evening, becoming W late Sunday night.
LLWS possible Sunday night.

SHORT TERM:

Monday...VFR, except possible MVFR north. NW wind
gusting 20-30 kts.

Monday Night...VFR with light wind.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night...MVFR or lower possible in snow,
especially south. Confidence is still low in this event. N/NE
wind 10-15 kts.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Probably VFR. NW winds 10-20
kts becoming SW 10 kts.


Thursday...MVFR tempo IFR/LIFR in snow showers. Winds SW 10 kts
becoming W 10 to 20 kts. Possible gusts 25 to 30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue
through this evening, then winds and seas diminish after
midnight through mid day Sunday. Winds will quickly begin to
increase Sunday afternoon with gale force wind gusts expected
Sunday evening and Sunday night with a low level jet crossing
the area.

SHORT TERM: Gales expected to continue through Monday morning,
from the west becoming northwest. Seas to around 10 ft. Much
improved winds/seas Monday night/early Tuesday. Moderate
likelihood of gales late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Seas
could also build back up to around 10 ft, but most likely 8
feet, with the highest seas further offshore.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ050>052.
 Gale Warning from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...TWD/LF
Marine...TWD/LF