353
FXUS61 KCAR 161840
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
240 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in at the surface through Friday as an
area of low pressure tracks from Northern New Brunswick to the
waters southeast of Nova Scotia. This high builds overhead
Friday night through Saturday night, then slowly slides to the
east through Sunday night. A complex storm system approaches
from the west Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Rain showers continue through Downeast Maine and portions of
northern Maine through the rest of the evening. Low pressure
continues to move out into the Atlantic to the southeast of Nova
Scotia. As the high pressure system to our west moves in,
pressure gradient between the two systems causes some continued
gusty north/northwest winds throughout Maine this afternoon into
the evening. Showers have been, and will continue, to be light.
Rain totals generally around a quarter of an inch in eastern
Maine, and about a tenth of an inch in northern Maine. Mostly
cloudy skies tonight, trapping heat in the low-levels tonight.
Overnight lows in the 40s, and low-30s in the Northwoods, with a
potential for some patchy frost.

High pressure continues to move east into Maine, with decent
ridging moving through the area, resulting in a calm and dry
weekend, with an increasing temperature trend generally in the
50s and 60s for Friday. Skies partially cloudy during the day,
becoming mostly clear by nighttime. Pressure gradient begins to
ease up on Friday, reducing wind gusts. With clear skies, light
winds, and high humidity, potential for some river valley fog
to develop. Colder overnight temperatures, in the low-to-mid 30s
in the north and upper 30s Downeast. Potential for some frost
in the northwestern portions of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Saturday through Sunday, high pressure will dominate and mostly
clear skies and dry weather will return. Temperatures will be
on the cool side, under the influence of the cold pool aloft
before the return flow begins later on Sunday. Have lowered
temperatures slightly Saturday morning from NBM mean to account
for decoupling overnight. On Sunday, clouds will build in from
the west as warmer temperatures also develop with southwesterly
flow. This will raise daytime highs to between 60 and 65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday night, a cold front will approach from the west, moving
across the state on Monday. Timing has been in slight question
until recently, but it appears that the NBM blend may be a
little fast with the bulk of the forecast models trending
towards precip moving in early Monday morning. Thus, have slowed
current PoPs by about 6 hrs to bring the front in Monday
morning. The overall pattern has the longwave trough moving
eastward slowly between Tuesday and Thursday. This will keep
instability in the region and support another round of
precipitation moving through later in the week. Uncertainty is a
little greater with the second front, as it does also depend on
the track the surface low takes. Overall, this will move us
towards a wetter pattern through the end of the long term. &&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: MVFR this evening with low ceilings and
overcast skies. Elevated wind gusts in northern terminals that
should relax overnight. Winds from the N/NW at 10-15 kts, with
gusts up to 20 kts possible this evening and tomorrow afternoon.
Skies expected to go SCT by tomorrow, with ceilings lifting to
low-end VFR. Light rain showers over, and in the vicinity of,
northern terminals, ending later tonight.

KBGR/KBHB: MVFR this evening with low ceilings and overcast
skies. Elevated wind gusts in southern terminals through
tomorrow afternoon. Winds from the N/NW at 10-15 kts, with
gusts up to 25 kts possible. Skies expected to go SCT by
tomorrow, with ceilings lifting to low-end VFR. Light rain
showers over, and in the vicinity of, southern terminals, ending
later tonight.



SHORT TERM: Saturday - Saturday night: VFR across all
terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Sunday: Generally VFR across all terminals, though cigs will
begin to fall towards MVFR heading into Sun night. S winds 5 to
10 kts.

Monday: Cigs deteriorating to MVFR throughout the day. S/SE
winds at 5-10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts possible during the day.

Monday night/Tuesday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. E winds 5 to 10
kts.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale Warning in effect until early Friday morning
over outer-waters. Small Craft Advisory for intra-coastals
until Friday morning. Seas at or below 4f to 6t over the outer
waters, and at or below 4 ft over the inter-coastals. Winds from
the N/NW around 15-20 kts with a few gusts up to 35 kts over
outer waters possible this evening, before conditions begin to
relax by morning. Rain possible this evening into the early
morning.

SHORT TERM: A brief period of small craft winds will return
Monday morning, but overall winds will remain less than 25 kts
through the period. Seas 3 to 5 feet becoming 4 to 6 feet
Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...ASB
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...ASB/LF
Marine...ASB/LF