259
FXUS61 KCAR 130733
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
233 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will remain over Eastern Canada through
Saturday as a series of weather disturbances moves through. A new
upper low diving down from Central Canada will develop low pressure
off our coast on Sunday. Low pressure will lift into Eastern Canada
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Throughout today, a shortwave trough will move through New
England resulting in the development of surface low pressure in
the Gulf of Maine. Expect rain showers to develop over the
waters and coast early this morning and increase in coverage
throughout the day. The trough will eventually cut-off into an
upper-low over the state with some weak upper-level energy
rotating around it. This should help contribute to the
development of some scattered snow showers tomorrow, mainly in
the North Woods region. A mix of rain and snow showers will be
possible over the Central Highlands. Still some uncertainty
regarding how far north the snow showers will develop. This will
depend on the strength of a weak ridge to our west. Current
thinking is that this will be weak enough for precipitation over
the crown of Maine.

Tonight, the upper-low moves northeast out of the area
resulting in much of the precipitation tapering off through the
overnight hours. Meanwhile, a ridge over the upper midwest will
be moving east resulting in high pressure beginning to build
into the area. A dry day expected Friday with some sunshine.
Cant rule out the possibility of a shower over the coast or
waters. Temperatures remain slightly below normal with low to
mid 30s north and upper 30s to low 40s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface and upper level low pressure will remain to our north and
east through Saturday. This will keep a north to northwest flow of
mainly dry air across the region through Saturday. Clouds will begin
to increase later Saturday and Saturday night as warm advection
aloft ahead of the next system will result in snow developing from
west to east across the region later Saturday night. At this
point in time, have kept precipitation types snow and rain.
However, forecast soundings are indicating the possibility of a
wintry mix developing across portions of the Central Maine
Highlands and Upper Penobscot Valley, as warmer air aloft moves
in later Saturday night. This is something that later shifts may
need to address as the event draws closer. Expect lows Friday
night to range from the mid teens to lower 20s north and lower
to mid 20s central and Downeast. Highs on Saturday will range
from the mid 30s across the north to the upper 30s to near 40
for the Bangor region and Downeast. Lows Saturday night will be
similar to Friday nights lows, but occur early in the evening,
and then slowly rise through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level energy will be diving southeast during Sunday with
low pressure re developing along the Maine coast. The low is
then expected to track through the Canadian Maritimes later
Sunday and Sunday night. There is still some uncertainty with
regard to precipitation types during Sunday, but it appears that
it will be primarily rain for the Bangor region and Downeast,
and mainly snow for northern areas. As the low continues to
track into the Canadian Maritimes later Sunday and Sunday night,
precipitation should begin to gradually change to snow across
all of the region. It appears as if that the best chances for
accumulating snow will be across northern areas Sunday night.
Drier air working in behind the system may allow precipitation
to begin to diminish across the Bangor region and Downeast areas
before the colder air wraps back in. The operational EC and its
ensemble mean are much more aggressive with the snowfall
potential later Sunday and Sunday night for northern areas. But
GFS amd CMC ensemble means are less bullish.

The low will continue to track northeast away from the region on
Monday, with any lingering snow across the north tapering to
snow showers during the day. It does appear that gusty winds
will be a factor on Monday behind the low, with gusts to 35 to
40 mph possible.

West to northwest flow of drier air is expected Tuesday through
Wednesday with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies. Afternoon
highs through mid week will continue to average a bit below
normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate
to MVFR this morning in lower cigs by around 8z. MVFR conditions
Thursday may lift to VFR in the evening. Isolated light snow
showers through this evening may result in some brief IFR
conditions. VFR tonight and Friday. Light and variable winds
early this morning should become N/NE around 5 kts today and 5
to 10 kts tonight. NW winds around 10 kts Friday.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate
to MVFR this morning in lower cigs between 13 and 15z. MVFR
through the evening should improve to VFR tonight. VFR Friday.
Isolated snow showers early this morning should quickly change
to rain showers. Greatest chance for rain showers today at BHB.
Precipitation clears out tonight. Light and variable winds early
this morning should become N at 5 to 10 kts today and tonight.
NW winds 10 to 15 kts Friday.


SHORT TERM:

Friday night through Saturday...VFR. W to NW wind.

Saturday night...VFR early, then MVFR or lower in developing
snow north and rain or snow south. S wind.

Sunday...Widespread IFR expected in snow north and rain south.
SE wind becoming W late.

Sunday night...IFR north and MVFR south. Chance snow. W to NW
wind.

Monday...MVFR/VFR Scattered snow showers north. Gusty W wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas have dropped below SCA criteria and will
continue to decrease. Thus, have allowed the small craft
advisory to expire. Winds and seas remain below SCA criteria
through today. Offshore winds strengthen to above SCA criteria
this evening. A small craft advisory is in effect from 7 PM
tonight until 7 PM Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Friday
night through early next week. Potential for gale force winds
Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday
     for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...SM
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...SM/TWD
Marine...SM/TWD