662
FXUS61 KCAR 142308
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
608 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain over Eastern Canada through Saturday.
A new area of low pressure will develop along the coast Saturday
night and intensify as it lifts northeast into the Maritimes
Sunday into Sunday night. Low pressure will lift north across
Labrador Monday into Tuesday. High pressure will begin to build
in from the west on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
605PM Update:
Bands of scattered flurries and stray snow showers have set up
across the Central Highlands this evening with NW upslope flow.
While a quick dusting is possible in some locations, this
activity should mainly be flurries. Stratocumulus continues
across much of the northwestern half of the forecast area. Other
than the addition of flurries over the Central Highlands, no
significant updates were needed.

Previous Discussion:
The low pressure system which has been stalled over the
Maritimes will retrograde northwest across Newfoundland tonight
keeping us in a chilly northwesterly flow. A bit of moisture
wrapping south around the western edge of the low will keep
patchy clouds over the north while southern areas turn out
mainly clear. It will be another cold night with lows from near
20 over the far north to the upper 20s near the coast.

A narrow corridor of high pressure will begin to press over the area
Saturday between the low to our northeast and a new trough diving
in from the northwest. This will bring a mostly sunny but chilly
day with lows from the low to mid 30s north to the upper 30s
Downeast.

A vigorous trough of low pressure diving southeast from Central
Canada will begin to develop low pressure near our coast late
Saturday night. The developing low will be supported by strong
jet energy surging east from the Upper Midwest and some
divergence aloft. Clouds ahead of this trough will begin moving
in from southwest to northeast overnight. Snow will begin to
push into the highlands with rain Downeast and across Southern
Penobscot County late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
The snow may begin to push into northern areas toward Dawn
Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message...Confidence continues to increase in heavy wet
snowfall Sunday through Monday morning. Gusty northwest winds
will follow Monday into Tuesday.

Low pressure is expected to develop over southern New England
and move northeastward along the coast of Maine Sunday through
Monday. This will bring a period of moderate precipitation
starting early Sunday morning. Current thinking is that enough
cold air will move in from the west to keep the precipitation
across the north mostly snow, while areas south of I-95 will
mainly see a rain-snow mix. The snow will be heavy and wet, but
still has the potential to reach 6 to 8 inches, mostly over
northern Penobscot, northern Piscatquis, and Aroostook Counties.
Uncertainty is still fairly high on exact amounts, because if
the low track moves westward, or more warm air wraps around the
low, more rain will mix in and snowfall totals will decrease.
Currently, chances for greater than 6 inches of snow are high
(50 to 60%) over western Aroostook and northern Piscataquis
counties, and moderate to high (30 to 50%) over eastern
Aroostook and northern Penobscot County. Timing of this storm is
fairly consistent between models, so snow is expected to begin
Sunday morning and end sometime Monday morning. The heavy wet
nature of the snow combined with cold temperatures on Sunday
night will create a messy Monday morning commute.

Gusty winds will increase on the backside of the low as high
pressure approaches and cold air advection continues. A LLJ of
35 to 40 knots will form over western Maine in the wake of the
low, and wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots are expected to mix down
to the surface Monday into Monday night. Blowing snow is not
expected to be much of a problem due to the heavy consistency of
the previously fallen snow, but visibility could be reduced by
any snow showers that develop.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message....Gusty winds expected to continue Monday night
through Tuesday.

Current trend in the models has been to keep
the low in place over Nova Scotia for a longer period of time,
which would extend the gusty winds later in the day on Tuesday.
Winds at higher elevations will be stronger during this period.
Confidence is moderate to high on the current forecast wind
strength, and moderate on the duration of the gusty winds.

High pressure and cool temperatures will be the main weather
through mid week. At the end of the week, another system will
move up to the west and potentially bring precipitation for
Friday into Saturday. However, this part of the forecast is
highly uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Primarily VFR conditions are expected tonight,
Saturday and early Saturday night. A period of high MVFR
ceilings is expected at northern Aroostook terminals this
evening. Conditions should lower to MVFR then IFR over southern
sites late Saturday night and may drop to MVFR over the north
very late at night. Winds will be northwesterly around 5 to 15
kt tonight and Saturday, becoming SW then SE around 5 kt
Saturday night.

SHORT TERM:

Sunday...IFR/LIFR in snow at FVE, PQI, CAR. IFR in snow and
rain for HUL, BGR, BHB. E to SE wind becoming N afternoon.

Sunday night...IFR. Snow. Gusty W to NW wind.

Monday...IFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Gusty W to NW
wind.

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Gusty W to NW wind.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR. W to NW wind 10 kts becoming
light.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA will continue for northwesterly wind gusting
up to 25 kt over the offshore waters tonight into early
Saturday. Winds will drop below SCA Saturday and remain below
SCA Saturday night. Seas around 3 ft tonight then 2 ft Saturday
into Saturday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds will increase above 25kts on Sunday, with the
potential gale force wind gusts starting Sunday night through
Tuesday morning. Winds will decrease below SCA late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Seas during this period will be 3 to 5
feet building to 6 to 8 feet on Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday
     afternoon for MEZ001-002-004>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...MB/MWS
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...MB/MWS/LF
Marine...MB/LF