662
FXUS61 KCLE 282015
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
315 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The trough will exit today as a brief ridge of high pressure builds
across the region. Another potent low pressure system will glide
northeast across the Great Lakes region this weekend with high
pressure briefly returning on Monday. Another system will track east
across the region Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather remains in the near term period with continued lake
effect snow showers through tonight and another impactful system
arriving on Saturday.

Lake Effect Snow:

Lake effect snow showers streaming off of both Lake Michigan and
Lake Erie this afternoon will gradually diminish through this
evening and overnight as the upper trough continues to lift
northeastward as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead from the
south. Given the diminishing lake effect snow, particularly along
the lakeshore, have gone ahead and cancelled the Winter Weather
Advisories for Lake County and Lakeshore Ashtabula County in Ohio
and for Northern Erie County Pennsylvania. The remainder of the Lake
Effect Snow Warnings for Northeast Ohio and the Winter Weather
Advisory for Summit County expire at 7 PM tonight. The Lake Effect
Snow Warning for southern Erie County and Crawford County in
Pennsylvania expire at 1 AM Saturday. Additional snowfall amounts
through tonight of 1 to 3 inches is expected with highest
accumulations occurring across higher terrain locations. Continued
light to moderate snowfall may produce slick conditions through this
evening. Will continue to monitor radar trends over the next several
hours, but additional cancellations are possible.

Synoptic Snow on Saturday:

Our next impactful winter system will arrive on Saturday as low
pressure glides northeast from the Central Plains into the Lower
Great Lakes region while deepening. Wet synoptic snowfall is
expected to spread across the region late Saturday morning through
Sunday. Highest accumulation will be confined to the I-75 corridor
where snowfall amounts of 3-5+ inches are expected. Locally higher
accumulations in excess of 6 inches are possible around the Toledo
metro area. Confidence has increased enough with this forecast
package to issue new winter headlines across Northwest Ohio Saturday
morning through Sunday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for Wood, Ottawa, Sandusky, Seneca, Hancock, and Wyandot
Counties in Ohio. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Lucas
County for the same timeframe given higher confidence in the western
half of the county receiving 6+ inches of snowfall. Highest snowfall
rates will occur Saturday afternoon and evening, especially across
the advisory and warning area. Elsewhere, accumulations will
generally range between 1-3 inches. Some slick spots may develop
where snow can accumulate on area roadways.

Temperatures:

Lows tonight fall into the upper teens to lower 20s with highs on
Saturday expected to rise into the low/mid 30s. Slightly warmer on
Saturday night with overnight lows in the upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Synoptic snowfall will diminish from west to east on Sunday as the
aforementioned low pressure system drags a cold front east across
the local area as it pushes northeastward. Breezy behind the cold
front on Sunday with winds gusting to 30-35 mph at times Sunday
afternoon. Additionally, synoptic snowfall will transition to lake
enhanced snow behind the cold front through Monday before another
brief area of high pressure builds overhead. Lake enhanced snowfall
amounts Sunday through Monday morning should generally remain
between 1-2 inches or less. High temperatures on Sunday in the mid
30s to lower 40s will fall into the upper 20s behind the front by
Monday. Chilly Sunday night with lows in the mid teens to lower 20s
and wind chill values bottoming out in the tens early Monday
morning. There will be a brief window of dry weather expected with
high pressure on Monday before another system arrives Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another upper level trough will move east across the region Monday
night into Tuesday bringing yet another round of wintry
precipitation on Tuesday. Dry conditions are favored on Wednesday
under high pressure before additional upper level disturbances move
overhead Thursday and Friday. Below normal temperatures are expected
through the forecast period with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s
and overnight lows in the teens to lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Lake effect snow showers will still be an issue for the first
half of the TAF period with CLE/YNG in fluctuating observations
in and out of the activity. ERI still has -SHSN possible as does
CAK, but for the most part, the main areas of concern will
remain at CLE and YNG. AMDs possible with ongoing trends as
cellular lake snow shower enhancement is currently ongoing as of
1730Z over Lake Erie, but also note that observations could jump
multiple flight categories.

Winds also continue out of the west gusting 20-30kts. These
gradually ease overnight. Ceilings and visibilities fluctuate
in and out of lake effect as well. Away from the lake effect,
MVFR ceilings, what is left of them, will become VFR, as will
the lake effect terminals eventually as the snow shuts down
tonight.

Outlook...A low pressure system will enter the Great Lakes
region this weekend, bringing light to moderate snowfall
areawide and non-VFR late Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning, with lake effect snow lingering across Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania through Monday. Another weather
system may bring another chance of snow and non-VFR on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will continue to gradually ease on Lake Erie tonight through
early Saturday, finally enough to end all of the Small Craft
Advisories by Sunday morning. The window of winds less than 10kts
will be brief, however, as the next strong low pressure system will
be moving in from the west by Saturday night. Offshore winds
increase to 30kts by Sunday morning, and will approach gale force
out of the southwest Sunday afternoon. Low water levels may become
an issue again Sunday as well given the strong winds along the fetch
of the lake. Open water wave heights 10-14ft possible, and
nearshore, 6-10ft possible late Saturday night through early Sunday
night. Winds down below 10kts out of the southwest Monday as wave
heights come down below 2ft by Monday evening.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for OHZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for OHZ006>008-017-018-027.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
     OHZ011-013-014-022-023.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ021.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ002-
     003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     LEZ142>146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26