Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241956
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
356 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of troughs will cross the region between Sunday and
Monday bringing us below normal temperatures. High pressure
will take hold for mid week with more seasonable temperatures to
end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A couple of small showers have popped up across northwest OH
and a couple others across the Canadian shore. Will maintain the
late afternoon 20 percent chance for the west, but counting on
the others not making it near Erie, PA before diurnal peak
wanes. There may be a quick shower or two elsewhere but under
the 20 percent mark. Diurnal cumulus will fade this evening with
clear/mostly clear skies for much of the night. As feature for
tomorrow nears, a few showers may be nearby northwest PA prior
to 6am, but again chances really low. Lows into the 50s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A broad trough will be the main feature across the region for
the remainder of the weekend and into Monday. This will yield
temperatures that will be running upwards of 10 degrees below
normal. Upper vort max spiraling across MN today will make its
way across the lower lakes for Sunday. With its close proximity
expecting shower development/isolated thunderstorms from north-
central OH eastward. Main feature will likely pass early enough
in the day that western areas will remain dry. Highs will be
within a few degrees of 70 with breezy winds.

By Sunday night temperatures aloft will definitely be cool
enough for a lake enhancement scenario, but with the area
between troughs/local ridging, did not want to go too high on
precip chances across the snowbelt. In fact unsure how much
activity we will have Monday morning with the next trough still
north across the lakes until late afternoon. Have a large area
of likely precip chances or better from Cleveland and Youngstown
eastward as instability showers/ts will flare up by afternoon.
There will be more upper 60s for highs and fewer 70s Monday.

High pressure and ridging work eastward for Tuesday. Lingering
showers east early and temperatures beginning to rebound across
the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the second day in a row haven`t made many changes.  Wednesday is
still looking dry.  The area will just be getting in the warmer
southerly flow on the backside of the surface ridge. Southwesterly
flow will then continue for a few days with lower level moisture
steadily increasing.  The new guidance continues to be in fair
agreement with the low set to move over the western lakes late next
week.  The warm front from the low could begin to kick off a few
showers and storms as early as Thursday. Have removed all mention
from Wednesday night.  Precip chances will then be needed into the
weekend as surface dewpoints eventually make the upper 60s.
Temperatures will be seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Starting to see SCT-BKN cumulus clouds forming. Not going to
forecast any precip but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out.
Expect the cumulus to dissipate toward 00z. Westerly winds will
continue to gust to around 20 knots this afternoon but will
diminish after 00z.

OUTLOOK...Chance of brief MVFR in showers Sunday into Monday
with a cold front and trough aloft.

&&

.MARINE...
Even though the buoys continue to report conditions below small
craft criteria have been getting human reports of 5 foot waves. Have
gone ahead and put up a small craft through the evening.  Another
small craft will likely be needed tomorrow as westerly winds should
be even stronger.  Mainly westerly flow will continue through Monday
evening.  A cold front will cross the lake early Tuesday flipping
the flow to the northwest or north.  It`s not looking like winds
will be strong enough for small craft conditions behind this front.
A surface ridge will cross the lake Tuesday night with southerly
winds finally returning.  South to southwest flow will then continue
through the end of the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Kubina



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