Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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911
FXUS61 KCLE 280745
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
345 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure centered over Northern Lake Michigan will drop south
into the Ohio Valley today.  The low will meander across the Ohio
Valley and Lower Great Lakes through Saturday producing on and off
showers for the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Currently low pressure system centered over Northern Lake Michigan.
All models drop the low south into the Ohio Valley by this evening.
Current pressure falls now into Central Illinois would substantiate
this.  Showers stretching from NW Michigan into Northern Illinois
will gradually expand as the low drops to the south.   Although none
of the models seem to have a great placement of the showers all 3
move the showers into Western half of area this morning and into the
East by late afternoon.   Seems reasonable with an East-Northeast
flow setting up this afternoon...precip will have a harder time
spreading east. Bumped up temps for today a few degrees in the
east since precip will not reach until later in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The low moves into the Ohio Valley by this evening...but then the
surface and upper level low drift across the Ohio Valley/Lower lakes
into Saturday.   This will produce occasional showers and isolated
thunderstorms...but the models still not in good agreement on
precise track and movement of the low.  Models continue with deeper
moisture and stronger forcing with the left exit region of the upper
level jet, deformation zone, and vorticity max will help develop
large bands of rain that could extend into southern PA.  The best
chances for rain will be in the east but still have some doubts as
to amounts as models tend to over forecast amounts with NE downslope
flow which we will have through the period.   That said  most areas
should see an inch of rain through Saturday with the potential for
more in the extreme east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level low pressure will still be impacting portions of the
area with some scattered showers. Better chances by Sunday should be
across the north. Models continue to move the low eastward into
Sunday night with only some lingering lake showers anticipated. Will
keep a slight chance mention in the grids on Monday across the east
since Lake Erie is so warm and the upper level troughiness. Surface
high pressure should begin to build into the region Monday night
into Tuesday with increasing heights. This should mean warmer
temperatures for the middle of next week.

Sunday will be the cool day of the long term with highs mainly in
the 60s. Warmer each day into Tuesday. Highs by Tuesday afternoon
will return to the lower and middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Upper level low is located over the Western Great Lakes. It will
continue to drift toward the region through the day. VFR
conditions will continue for several more hours but ceilings will
gradually lower from west to east through the day. Light rain may
begin as early as 15z across NW OH but will likely begin as VFR.
As the rains persist ceilings will lower to MVFR. A thunderstorm
or two will be possible but chances are way too low to mention in
the TAF`s. Rain should not reach the OH/PA border until around
sunset at the earliest.

Winds will shift from southerly this morning to the east through
the day. Eastern areas will see a better downsloping wind develop
so expect some gusty winds at KERI and KYNG.

OUTLOOK...Periods of non-VFR through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will move from the Western Great Lakes to the central
Ohio River Valley by Thursday. So the southerly flow this morning
will quickly shift to the east and increase. The surface pressure
gradient should tighten enough for Thursday into Friday to allow
winds to increase to at least 15 to 25 knots. So with that said a
small craft advisory is expected to be issued for Thursday, then
continue into at least Friday night. Winds and waves decrease by
Saturday afternoon.

There will be scattered to numerous showers, maybe a few
thunderstorms, on the lake through the remainder of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...DJB/Mullen



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