Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 252038
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
338 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moving across the nation`s mid section and Ohio
Valley will bring a swath of mild Pacific air across the area
the first half of the week. A panhandle hook storm system will
deepen as it tracks across the mid Mississippi Valley Wednesday
night and heads right toward Lake Erie on Thursday. The system
is expected to redevelop along the east coast on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
What remains of the gusty winds will diminish quickly this evening
as the mixing ends and surface high pressure builds eastward.
There is a strong jet overhead and a broad area of high clouds
lingered. The jet will gradually shift eastward but it may take
until Monday morning to get most of the high clouds east of the
forecast area. A weak positively tilted short wave will also track
across the area during the early morning hours on Monday and a few
mid/high clouds could show up, otherwise sunny Monday and clear
Monday night.

Not sure the wind will decrease enough to decouple tonight. The
best chance might be the usual southern cold spots from around
Marion east across the Route 30 corridor and south. Elsewhere,
forecast lows tonight will be near guidance, generally lower 30s
with some mid 30s near Lake Erie. The wind will stay off the lake
across the east lakeshore on Monday where it will stay cooler (upper
30s/lower 40s). A lake breeze is possible elsewhere but with the
west flow the inland penetration will be limited. Highs in the
upper 40s to around 50 elsewhere on Monday.

Temps could drop off quickly on Monday evening but the south wind
will begin to pick up Monday night. The usual inland cold spots will
decouple and drop into the 20s, with lows generally in the lower
30s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Tuesday should stay dry with high pressure still dominating the
area then the highs moves off to the east Tue night into Wed.
This will allow moisture to return to the area along with warmer
temps. The first threat for rain looks to be later Wed with
increasing chances southwest to northeast Wed night then the
best chance on Thu. The airmass may become unstable enough Wed
night into Thu for some thunder to develop.

Above normal temps with highs mostly in the 50s should occur each
day but Thu will be tricky near Lake Erie due to possible winds
coming off of the cold lake.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A closed low will move across Ohio early Thursday night. At the
surface, a warm front will lift north to the lakeshore with a
surface low generally moving from west to east along the Lake Erie
shoreline. Widespread rain can be expected along the warm front as
it moves north through the area with another round of precipitation
likely as cold air advection takes over behind the low. The majority
of the precipitation will be liquid Thursday night, though areas
along the I-75 corridor could see a mix with snow by late Thursday
night into early Friday morning.

Some lingering lake-effect showers are expected Friday with some of
the highest elevations potentially seeing a mix with snow through
the morning hours. By afternoon any remaining precipitation should
be rain and confined to the Snowbelt. High pressure moves in Friday
night into the weekend and will dry everyone out. Highs throughout
the long term will be in the low to mid 40s with lows generally in
the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
The gusty west winds have weakened but could still gust 25 to
35 knots this afternoon until the mixing ends by this evening.
Some MVFR stratocumulus was lingering across northwest Ohio but
should dissipate by mid afternoon as the subsidence takes care
of the low clouds. VFR conditions will continue tonight into
Monday as high pressure builds in.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in rain and low ceilings Wed and Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will spread northeast into the lake tonight into
Monday causing SW winds to gradually diminish to 10 knots or less
then back to south for Tue into Wed as the highs shifts off to the
east.

The winds become more uncertain for Wed night into Thu night due to
how far SE a cold front will drop before stalling for Thu along with
the track of a low moving along the front. For now, plan on mainly
NE winds setting for Wed night into Thu due to the cold front moving
south of the lake. Winds will then spend the rest of Thu into Thu
night mostly veering to the south then SW as the low track moves
across the NW part of the lake. Late Thu night into Fri looks to be
a rough on the lake with northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots causing
the broken up ice fields to be on the move.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A number of rivers were near flood or in minor flood. See the
river flood warnings/forecasts for more information. Other minor
flooding was occurring but mostly in typical low lying areas.
Water levels will continue to go down the first half of the
week. The next threat of rain of any significance is on
Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Mottice
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Adams
HYDROLOGY...


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