Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 192356
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
656 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over Texas will move northeast across
Tennessee and lower Ohio Valley Monday before moving off the mid
Atlantic Coast Monday night. Tuesday, low pressure moving
through Ontario will drive a cold front through the region
during the afternoon and evening. Wednesday, high pressure will
dominate the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Minor tweaks and adjustments to the forecast with this update,
however things look mostly on track from the original forecast.
A few reports of snow amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range across
the snowbelt of NE OH and NW PA, with the highest report so far
of just under 4 inches near Edinboro, PA. A couple of bands
continue to remain fairly organized east of Cleveland, and are
expected to continue for a few more hours during the peak
thermodynamic conditions. Inversion heights will continue to
fall into the overnight for much of the area, with lift/moisture
falling below peak dendritic growth. Main adjustment to the
forecast is to adjust snowfall amounts further south to account
for current orientation of the bands. Will continue with the
advisory for southern Erie, with periods of lake effect snow
continuing for at least another 10-12 hours.

Original discussion...
Lake effect snow showers have expanded over the past couple
hours as the colder air continues to deepen across the area.
Forecast soundings on BUFKIT show that for the next 6 to 8 hours
the depth of the cold air remains fairly constant with cape and
moisture up to 700mb. Lift and instability is within the
favored dendritic growth zone and lake induced cape reaches
5-700j/kg. Moisture remains sufficient and shear is minimal. So
expect snow showers to continue/increase this afternoon into
evening. After about 9 to 10pm though, the inversion begins to
lower, winds begin to slowly back, and dendritic snow growth
diminishes. Instability however remains "moderate" so LES will
not shut down immediately. Could still see snow showers Monday
morning as warm advection/isentropic lift moves through the
area. Otherwise expect plenty of sunshine outside of nwrn PA
although during the afternoon expecting decreasing clouds there
as well as drier air and high pressure build in from the south.
Models continue to show dry air across the region Monday night
as high pressure moves off the mid Atlantic Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the SERN states slides east allowing the next
system to move in from the NW.  Models continue to move low pressure
system across James Bay late Tuesday forcing the next cold front
across the forecast area.  Model timing coming into better agreement
with the front moving into NW OH late afternoon on Tuesday.  The
front moves across the forecast area ushering in colder conditions
and a little snow.  By daybreak Wednesday the 850 MB temps plunge to
-13c. With a W-NW flow best chance for snow will be int the
 snowbelt east of Cleveland. Do not expect much in the way of
 accumulations as ridge builds in quickly on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the second day in a row have not made many changes to long term.
Friday is still looking dry with precip chances then increasing for
the weekend.  Low pressure will pass to the north of lakes Friday
night and drag a cold front across the region.  Some light precip
could occur along the front with best chances over the eastern end
of the area.  There could be some lake effect behind this system as
both the GFS and ECMWF take 850 mb temps to neg 10 or colder by
early Sunday.  On Saturday some rain showers could occur downwind of
the lake but by early Sunday we could be looking at lake effect
snow.  For now will stick with chance pops for most of the weekend
with best chances obviously downwind of the lake.  Have used a blend
of guidance for temps.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
High pressure will continue to build east across the region
overnight. Lake effect snow bands will continue, mainly
affecting KYNG and KERI through the overnight, with drying
conditions and clearing skies from west to east otherwise. A few
periods of IFR vis possible with the heaviest snow bands. Snow
showers may linger at KERI through 12Z, holding on to cloud
cover through 18Z. West winds will become southwest through the
overnight, with some of the gusts falling off away from the lake
early in the period.

OUTLOOK...A brief period of Non-VFR possible Tuesday night all
areas and through Wednesday night in the northeast snowbelt.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds to 30 knots will diminish to 20 to 25 tonight. Winds
will back to the SW Monday and to the S Monday night ahead of next
approaching system, but small craft advisory will continue as winds
remain at 15 to 25 knots.   Winds turn to the W to NW Tuesday night
as another cold front moves across Lake Erie.   Winds gradually
diminish Wednesday as high pressure gradually builds over the
Lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/TK
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...DJB



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