Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 261319
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
920 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017
A warm front over the area will move north today. Low pressure over
Missouri will track northeast across Lake Huron tonight pulling a
weak cold front across the region. Another low will move northeast
across the region Monday night into Tuesday pulling a cold front off
to the southeast. High pressure will build southeast into the area
by Wednesday then weaken as another low moves up the Ohio valley
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Increasing dynamics from the surface and upper low tracking ne in
lower MI will provide the forcing for numerous shra and tsra to
develop and spread west to east across the cwa today. Adding fuel
for the convection will be the warm southerly flow that should push
temps to top out in a 65 to 70 range for most of the area. Some of
the storms will become strong but few if any severe storms are
currently expected. However, if a little more sunshine occurs than
expected and temps get a few degrees warmer then some of the storms
could end up becoming severe. With the expected widespread cloud
cover expected will continue to stick with a middle of the road
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Major model differences this morning making this forecast a bit
difficult. So, will lean in the direction of old fashioned
forecasting. Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper level
low pressure system over Missouri finally starting to eject out
to the north. As the low lifts north, it should begin to get
caught up in the upper level jet stream and push to the
northeast. Trough axis extending south from the low will push
east as well and this trend is already evident in the water
vapor. Timing of the trough should put it into the forecast area
by mid day to early afternoon. The trough axis is expected to
push east of the area tonight. The moisture associated with the
trough will exit out to the east. Fair weather will return for
portions of the day on Monday until another wave of low pressure
pushes east into the area. More showers will spread east into
the forecast area Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday
Amplification of the upper level ridge will take place over the
forecast area as another trough digs into the eastern slopes of
the Rockies resulting in low pressure development into Texas.
The upper level ridge will allow surface ridging to build south
across the forecast area Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Mild temperatures still expected over the next few days as polar
jet remains well north of the forecast area. Will stick with
persistence in the temperature department as there will be no
major changes in air mass through this forecast period.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term begins Thursday with the ECMWF and GFS close enough
with correlation to previous runs that yield confidence for the
Thursday forecast. Both models show low pressure in the central
plains, the GFS over ern OK or NERN TX while the ECMWF is centered
more over MO. High pressure will be in Ontario and western Quebec.
Moisture will be increasing across the area through the day as the
low moves northeast. Will therefore increase clouds through the day
and bring in chance pops for showers in the afternoon. From Thursday
night on the models start to look like they belong on different
planets. The differences are too vast to go into in detail but in
general the ECMWF takes the low northeast across the Great Lakes
while the GFS builds the high back across the northern lakes and
shunts the low east off the mid atlantic coast. Will go with the
ECMWF entirely which also agrees with our current forecast and is
also supported by WPC surface fronts/pressure. Thus best chance for
precip will be Thursday night and Friday with likely pops in place.
Saturday will have chance pops for any lingering showers. Temps near
to slightly above normal.
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
IFR CIGS continue at KTOL this morning...otherwise conditions
remain VFR across northern Ohio and NWRN PA early today. The
stalled front across the area has begun to lift north and is
between KDAY and KAOH east to just north of KCLE and then east
along the lakeshore. Believe however it may have trouble moving
much further north through the day. The HRRR continues with
VFR conditions across the area today although NAM and GFS
guidance is much more pessimistic with widespread MVFR and IFR
that last through the overnight as well. Best location for
persistent IFR restrictions would be KTOL through the morning.
Otherwise radar shows rain approaching from the southwest.
Believe conditions will drop to MVFR across the area as this
moves in late morning and early afternoon beginning about
14-15Z at KMFD and 18-21Z KCLE KCAK and KYNG. Brought precip
into KERI after 22Z. Could also see a few thunderstorms in the
area as well mainly in the afternoon. Best instability will come
after 20Z or so FDY to MFD based on LI`s. Tonight guidance
likely correct as MVFR/IFR conditions wrap around the low into
the area as the low moves across the Great Lakes.
OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR much of the time late Monday into
Tue then again by Thu.
Will continue with the small craft advisory as is for now. Models
do take winds and waves down through the second half of the night
and into Sunday morning as expected but current winds remain gusty
into the 20 to 25 knot range and waves from the buoy off
Cleveland was near 7 feet. For the late morning and afternoon
winds will veer to the southeast and decrease to 10 to 15 knots
as weakening low pressure moves from Missouri to Lake Michigan.
The low will continue northeast across the lakes tonight turning
winds southwest by Monday morning behind a weak frontal system.
Another low will follow, this one crossing Lake Erie early
Tuesday morning. Ahead of the low on Monday, the front will
waffle north across the lake. The front will then drop back
south across the lake behind the low on Tuesday. Canadian high
pressure will build south across the lake Wednesday and
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for