Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 290549
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
149 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017
A warm front will develop over the lower Ohio Valley tonight.
This warm front should be north of the area by Sunday morning.
Another strong low pressure system will develop over the
Mississippi Valley on Sunday and force a cold front east across
the area on Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Main area of active weather will remain across central and
southern OH where the frontal boundary will remain for the
remainder of tonight and much of Saturday. As this front
strengthens, winds will back to the northeast. As the current
batch of showers/thunderstorms moves across the local area
though the early overnight, northern counties will see a
pronounced break for the remainder of the night and into
Saturday morning. Cannot rule out a stray shower so do not lower
precip chances any lower than 30 percent. Keep 70 percent+
across the south the entire night. So far rainfall amounts
nearing a half inch has occured south of US 30 and west of US
250. Marion has had 0.40. Possibility of another quarter to half
inch if additional development materializes before
morning.Temperatures appear to be on target and no additional
adjustments were made with this mid evening update.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front still struggles to push north and will likely take
until Sunday morning until it actually reaches our forecast
area. Most of the moisture associated with the boundary appears
it will lift slowly north of the area during the day Saturday
into Saturday night. Once again, another chance for some soaking
localized rainfall expected in any thunderstorms across the
area. Instability still supports chance of thunderstorm threat
so will keep a mention going through the day Saturday into
Saturday night. Northeast flow will keep area on the cooler side
for temperatures Saturday, especially near the lake. Once
moisture lifts north of the lake late Saturday night, forecast
area arrives in the true warm sector and this should allow
temperatures to climb well into the 70s again during the day.
Cold front pushes toward the area and is expected to arrive
during the day Monday. Forecast area will remain in the warm
sector Sunday into Monday afternoon. As cold front arrives
Monday, can`t rule out the potential for some severe
thunderstorms. Wrap around moisture around the upper level low
will keep a chance for some showers through Monday night. Cold
air advection returns once again Monday night.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper trough will dominate the pattern Tue thru Fri leading to
chances for shra much of the time. Temps will be below normal and
maybe even a threat for frost one of the nights if clouds clear out
more than expected and winds become light.
.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Complicated TAF period as warm front lifting north towards the
region from the Ohio valley and cold front sinking south into
the region expected to merge early in the period. This will be a
focus for showers and possible TSRA through the period. Ceiling
starting to lower from SW to NE across the region, with a period
of IFR ceilings expected through the middle part of the period.
Lower confidence in timing of precip and possible TSRA.
Scattered showers currently across northern Ohio will lift NE.
First wave tracking northeast along the warm front will allow
convection to skirt the souther TAF sites like KMFD and KCAK
near 12Z. Another strong wave lifting northeast may bring more
convection to the terminals from 15Z through 21Z. Highest
confidence in precip and possible thunder is the southern
terminals from KFDY to KMFD to KCAK. Will likely need to monitor
and amend as necessary for near term convective activity.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR at times in showers and thunderstorms Sat night
through Mon then just sct shra Tue and Wed.
Fronts north and south of the lake will tend to merge just south
shore of the lake by late tonight then drift a little south into Sat
night before lifting north across the lake Sun. A deep low will move
ne thru the central part of the lakes Mon night into Tue pulling a
series of cold fronts across Lake Erie Mon thru Wed. Increasing ne
winds could produce near SCA conditions by Sat night before
diminishing Sun. The deep low will lead to increasing south winds
Mon that may reach SCA levels then colder air spreading over the
lake Tue may lead to near gale force conditions which will gradually
diminish Wed into Wed night.