Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241058
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
658 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad ridge aloft over the Great Lakes region will finally shift
east Monday and Tuesday. Low pressure will move across the
Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night with a trailing cold front
crossing the area on Wednesday. Another trough moving southeast
out of Canada will usher in a much cooler airmass to end the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A repeat of weather conditions expected today with high temperatures
near record values for most areas. The exception will be along the
lakeshore and at ERI where flow off the lake will keep temperatures
a few degrees below the old record. Record highs for the climate
sites for September 24 follow below:

Location    Record  Year
TOL         92      1891
MFD         89      1934/2010
CLE         90      2010
CAK         92      1908
YNG         91      1936
ERI         89      2010

Upper level ridge gradually starts to shift to the east overnight
into Monday. As Hurricane Maria continues to track north off the
southeast coast, the anti-cyclonic flow will pull cirrus north into
the area. Hard to tell how thick the cloud cover will be on Monday
but will carry a window of partly cloudy conditions. Forecast
highs on Monday are a degree or two lower due to the filtered
sun.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The pattern will finally start to show a change as the upper and
surface ridge weakens and shifts east. This will allow the first in
a series of cold fronts to push east across the area Wed into Wed
night. Moisture is limited so rainfall will tend to be light and
scattered, doing little to alleviate the short term drought that is
developing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upper trough will continue to dig into the eastern lakes Thu
thru Fri then the models differ for the weekend with the GFS being
progressive while the ECMWF shows the upper trough cutting off into
a closed low over the OH/PA border by Sunday. Will stay with the
superblend for now which cools temps Thu into Sat while maintaining
small chc pops Fri and Sat for only light shra for mainly the
snowbelt.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Patchy ground fog may cause visibilities at TOL to briefly drop
to MVFR through 13Z. Otherwise, excellent aviation conditions
expected today with high pressure and clear skies over the
region. Most sites will experience light easterly winds of 8
knots or less, except NE at CLE/ERI as a lake breeze develops
this afternoon. Nearly calm winds and slightly higher dewpoints
late Sunday night could once again lead to patchy ground fog at
a few of the terminals.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in patchy morning fog. Non-VFR
possible Wednesday/Thursday with a cold front Wednesday and much
cooler temperatures Thursday and flow off of the lake.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to provide light winds with an afternoon
lakebreeze thru Tue. Things will change starting Wed as the high
weakens and shift east to allow the first in a series of cold front
to cross the lake. Winds will shift to the NW Wed and increase to 10
to 15 knots (possibly 10 to 20 knots for a while) and continue into
Thu.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Adams


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