Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 010721
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
321 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS EXPECTED REPORTS OF SNOW HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN END
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR SHOWING
CRITICAL THICKNESSES GETTING LOW ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS FAR
EAST AS THE I-71 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. OBVIOUSLY AREAS CLOSE TO THE
LAKE WILL STAY ALL RAIN BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL ON THE
HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKE. DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
DAY EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS BUT BY MID AFTERNOON THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR SNOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD.
AT THE SAME TIME..EXPECT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS IN. THE
THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. THAT AREA MAY EVEN SEE SOME SUN LATER
IN THE DAY. FURTHER EAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS 850 MB
TEMPS DIP TO NEG 8 BY EARLY EVENING. NW PA SHOULD GET INTO THE
PRECIP ACTION LATER THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY OR
HIGHER POPS MOST OF THE AREA FOR TODAY. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS UNLESS YOU GET UNDER ONE
OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL GOES...NO MORE THAN A
DUSTING IS EXPECTED. HAVE STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIP WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIR
MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
TONIGHT AND EXPECT THE PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. LOCATIONS WEST OF I-71 SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT. EVEN NW PA
SHOULD SEE AN END IN THE PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS 850 MB RIDGING
EVENTUALLY REACHES THE AREA. SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY TEMPS
WILL BE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL. HAVE DONE SOME FINE TUNING TO THE
PRECIP FORECAST AT THE LATER STAGES OF THE PERIOD. ALL OF THE 00Z
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AREA REMAINING DRY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. HAVE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP PRIOR TO THAT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY AND WILL SEE A WAVE OF
PRECIP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED PRECIP
CHANCES TO LIKELY MOST AREAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE STAYED A
LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ON SUNDAY BUT OTHERWISE GUIDANCE
LOOKS FINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS DIFFER SOME BUT IN GENERAL SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
SE ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
LAKES WED NIGHT THRU THU. WILL GENERALLY KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR
SHRA THRU THU THEN ALLOW FOR MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT SITUATION FOR THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. BOUNDARY TEMPS LOOK COLDER FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI SO
WILL LOWER TEMP FORECAST AND ALLOW FOR SNOW/RAIN MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THRU SAT EVE BUT BOUNDARY
TEMPS IN THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO COOL. THIS WILL
LIKELY MEAN THAT THERE MAY NOT BE A CLEAR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BUT
RATHER A MIXED SITUATION DEVELOPING. MFD SHOULD SOON GO OVER TO SNOW
BUT OTHER SITES FURTHER EAST WILL START MIXING WITH SNOW DURING THE
DAY BUT MAY NOT CLEANLY CHANGE TO SNOW UNTIL EVENING. BY
EVENING...THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WITH A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING. TEMPS SHOULD
TEND TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING WHILE THE PRECIP IS OCCURRING SO NOT
EXPECTING A FREEZING PROBLEM TO OCCUR AT GROUND LEVEL.

MIX OF MVFR AND IFR SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THRU 18Z FROM WEST TO
EAST WHILE TOL AND FDY START TO SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

NORTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE WEST WILL SPREAD EAST
THRU MID MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH INTO NIGHTFALL SAT
EVE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THEN PERSISTING
OVER NE OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE SO WILL ALLOW FOR THE GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE WEST PART OF THE LAKE TO SETTLE DOWN ENOUGH BY
LATE MORNING TO GO BELOW GALE FORCE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT THRU SUN BUT WILL LIKELY STILL STAY ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT BEFORE BACKING TO SW AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST
OF THE LAKE. THE SW FLOW WILL INCREASE MON AHEAD OF THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE NEXT WEEK. PROBABLY
WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE BY
LATER MON THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUE NIGHT.

A WEAK RIDGE SHOULD MOVE UP THE OH VALLEY WED TO LESSEN THE FLOW ON
THE LAKE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MAY REACH THE LAKE BY LATE WED NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






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