Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 311124
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
724 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING PULLING COLDER AIR
SOUTH BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM...LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WAS DECREASING IN THE WEST. DUAL POL RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE RAIN-SNOW LINE IS LOCATED ACROSS LAKE/GEAUGA
COUNTIES WITH SNOW TO THE EAST. LARGE FLAKE SIZE IS BEING
REPORTED. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT TO TRY
TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. HIGHEST AMOUNTS STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA...GENERALLY 2-3 INCHES
WITH A FEW 4 INCH REPORTS POSSIBLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A CLIPPER WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS BEING DRIVEN BY ASCENT ALONG THE
850MB FRONT WHICH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE NAM
HAS DONE A GOOD JOB MODELING THIS SO FAR...WITH THE AXIS OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S WEST TO NEAR 30 EAST. UP UNTIL 4 AM ALL REPORTS OF
PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN RAIN BUT EXPECT TO
SEE PRECIPITATION STARTING TO TRANSITION TO SNOW AS IT CONTINUES
EAST INTO THE COLDER AIR. A TIGHT GRADIENT IS IN PLACE JUST EAST
OF CLEVELAND WITH A TEMP OF 40 AT BKL AND 31 AT HZY. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL ALSO MOVE
NORTHEAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING...COMPLICATING THE SNOWFALL
FORECAST. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ASHTABULA/ERIE/CRAWFORD COUNTIES...GENERALLY THROUGH 16Z. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM
LAKE COUNTY EASTWARD AND EXTENDING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA. ACCUMULATIONS ARE TRICKY GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP RATES
WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND AND VARYING TEMPERATURE PROFILES.
COULD SEE A COUPLE WET INCHES ALONG THE SHORELINE IN
LAKE/ASHTABULA COUNTIES WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 3 OR 4 OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NW PA. SUSPECT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET BY WITHOUT AN
ADVISORY FOR 3-4 INCHES IN NW PA BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
PRECIP TRENDS INTO THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BETTER ON
GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AFTER A WARM DAY ON MONDAY. MOST
AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 30 WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S
AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT WITH
THE SURFACE WAVE NOTED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WEAKENING AS IT SLIDES
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE
925-850MB LAYER AND INCREASED CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES AND ADDED A LOW
POP TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST OR SNOW FROM CLEVELAND EAST.
NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY. FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL
KEEP THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND NE OH/NW PA COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S WHILE INTERIOR AREAS EXPERIENCE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW AND MID 50S.

RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT
PUSHING NORTH. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S ALL
AREAS AND POSSIBLY HIT 70 IN THE SOUTH. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE TO 50-60 PERCENT IN WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE BRUSHES NORTHWEST OHIO. MODEL SPREAD AND FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GFS IS AN
OUTLIER AND WANTS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT BACK SOUTH ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF/GEM STALL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERHEAD WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. HAVE TRENDED
THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AND ADDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A COASTAL LOW AFFECTING NEW
ENGLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN.  SATURDAY NIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD STALL TO OUR SOUTH.
GUIDANCE FAIRLY DRY BUT AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE FRONT IN THE AREA
WITH MOISTURE ALSO INCREASING.  THINK THIS DESERVES A CHANCE POP
THAT LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HOWEVER...LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST EXTENDING A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. OVERRUNNING FAIRLY GOOD WITH FLOW OFF
THE GLFMX SO WILL BEING IN MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO BELOW
NORMAL NORTHEAST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER LOW OVER NE INDIANA/NWRN OH AT 12Z AND WILL MOVE ESE
ACROSS NRN OHIO THROUGH THE MORNING REACHING WRN PA AROUND 16Z.
PRECIP ACROSS OHIO IS LIGHT AND PATCHY WHILE KERI IS REPORTING IFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ENDING. LOWER CIGS TO OUR NORTHWEST SHOULD
DROP ACROSS THE AREA AND DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR THROUGH THE MID
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING FROM THE
NORTH AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. CONTINUED WITH LLWS WEST EARLY.
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR TONIGHT BUT THERE IS AN IMPULSE THAT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP CIGS AT OR BELOW 12 KFT MOST PLACES.


.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO NORTHERN OHIO THIS
MORNING.  LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE LOW MID MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE AND KEEP WINDS
LIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
PASSES ACROSS LAKE ERIE. FRIDAY LOOK FOR WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK





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