Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCLE 230814
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
414 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS IT SINKS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. WE ARE
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH SOME DEGREE OF TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
LAKE ERIE BUT THIS WILL WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY. SKIES ARE CLEAR
NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING AS
THIS DRIER AIR SHIFTS SOUTH. THE CLOUDS THAT REMAIN HAVE BEEN
MOVING SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TO HANG ON THE LONGEST IN NE OHIO (AKRON-YOUNGSTOWN)
WITH SUBSIDENCE WINNING OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN NW OHIO.
DESPITE THE NORTHERLY FLOW...THE AIRMASS MODERATES ABOUT 4C AT 925
FROM YESTERDAY WITH QUITE A BIT MORE SUN HELPING HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES AND EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE RIDGE. THERE IS A
LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CLOUDS WILL RANGE
FROM PARTLY TO BRIEFLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LEAN TO SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL CARRY A DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN NW PA TO LOW
60S IN THE WEST.

THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ROUND THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE
MID 60S FOR ALL BUT NE OHIO/NW PA. THE COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS AND PUSHES SOUTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A NARROW
RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WILL LIMIT ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NW PA ON SATURDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO ON SUNDAY SO
WILL LEAN TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OFF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
LOW 50S IN NW PA...TAPERING UP TO NEAR 60 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRANSITION
FROM A HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
MODELS AND ESPECIALLY THE ENSEMBLES BRING A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE
FORECAST WILL BE WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
BACK DOWN TOWARD 60 BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS IT
STAYS CLOUDY AND RAINY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR FOG AND LOCAL IFR FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS NW OHIO
UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS. PATCHES OF CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
WERE OCCURRING FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THOUGH THE MORNING BUT SUBSIDENCE AND
CLEARING SHOULD INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AND
ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR. JUST PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
LINGERING ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH WINDS WHICH HAD BEEN UP EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT THE LAKE WILL BE CHOPPY MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH WIND WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
BUT A STRONGER FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY AND THE
GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BOTH WINDS
AND WAVES WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY.
THE WIND MAY NOT DROP OFF MUCH ON SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
WESTERN BASIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.