Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCLE 301147
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
647 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY WHILE
A TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL SINK INTO
NORTHERN OH/NW PA ON SUNDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN
KY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN EARLY MORNING BURST OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF VERMILION
AND ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS PASSED AND
WE ARE AWAITING THE SIGNS OF THE DIMINISHING TREND. UPSTREAM THERE
ARE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER. HARD TO SAY IF
THERE IS ANY UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTION. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AREA
AS IS. SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AS EARLY AS
MID MORNING...SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING THE SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE A RAPID DECREASE. H8 TEMPS HAVE NOW COOLED
ENOUGH TO HAVE MINIMAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT...SO FLURRIES COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO DROP UP UNTIL THIS POINT. THE PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO BRING IN THE COLDER AIR. GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT
EVEN WITH A STARTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S...TEENS WILL BE
ARRIVING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED THIS DIRECTION
ALTHOUGH NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF TEENS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE. WIND CHILLS
MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IF INDEED THE REALLY COLD AIR GETS HERE FOR
THE DAYTIME HOURS...THIS WOULD FOR NW PA. THEREFORE HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY WIND CHILL ADV. ALREADY SEEING BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST
DEVELOP ACROSS LOWER MI AND INTO NW OHIO. HAVE A GENERAL
DECREASING TREND IN THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
CLEVELAND...BUT WITH THIS TOO UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MANY BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...SO WIND CHILLS SHOULD
STAY CLEAR OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BEYOND THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED AS THE REMAINING STRATUS ACROSS THE EAST SCATTERS...BUT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS REACH OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON THE SKY COVERAGE TONIGHT. WITH LIGHTER WINDS...ANY BREAKS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SEVERAL DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP. HAVE LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THE DAYTIME SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY AS WE STILL ARE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE...BUT EYES WILL BE LOOKING UPSTREAM
FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY. SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30
DEGREES FROM NW PA TO FINDLAY.

FOR SUNDAYS SYSTEM...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN
FACTOR IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. FIRST TO ARRIVE THOUGH WILL BE A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
NIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN OH/NW PA SUNDAY MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FRONT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SOUTHERN LOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT. THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN LOW HAS VARIED CONSIDERABLY
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS OF RUNS AND AFTER A SOUTHWARD TREND
YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED NORTH SLIGHTLY. GFS ENSEMBLES CLUSTER THE
LOW ANYWHERE FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO NORTHERN KY. TIMING IS FAIRLY
CLOSE THOUGH WITH THIS POSITION BY 00Z MON/SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE
RAISED PRECIP CHANCES EVEN HIGHER AS IT WILL PRECIPITATE ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A SYSTEM THAT PRODUCES
THE MOST SNOWFALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 30.

AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR GETS DRAWN BACK
TO THE LOCAL AREA. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER...BUT OPERATIONAL RUN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SINGLE DIGITS
BY MONDAY MORNING. WILL GO A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN EITHER
DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE...FAIR WEATHER...DIMINISHING WINDS...BUT
COLD DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD AND THE COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON
TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY WARM FROM THE 20S ON TUESDAY TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 30
ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER BY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
DIPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE MORNING THEN DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCLE TO KMFD. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL END BY 14Z. CEILINGS WILL
THEN SLOWLY LIFT AND ATTEMPT TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL OCCUR EARLIEST ACROSS NW OHIO. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AND REACH THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SOUTHERN
JET STREAM STORM SYSTEM TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL ASSIST IN INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BACK OVER OHIO BY MONDAY EVENING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ012>014-023-089.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.