Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCLE 181948
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
348 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A LOW AND IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK TROF ALOFT. THE SHOWERS THREAT WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AND
THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE
TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN IT WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING. THE FRONT WILL BE IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME KEPT IT JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE AM AND THEN MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS ADVERTISING THE 850MB COLD POOL SETTLING SOUTH OVER NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LAKESHORE. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS COOL SNAP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ALREADY BY
THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO
THE NORTH AT CLE/ERI WHILE OTHER SITES CAN EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND NORTH/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DRIED UP ALONG THE FRONT AND REMOVED THE
VCSH FROM THE FORECAST. SOME CU BETWEEN 3500-4500 FEET IS FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRIED TO BRING THAT INTO NW OHIO SITES.
OTHERWISE WE WILL BE WATCHING THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING. BROUGHT
BKN SKIES INTO TOL/CLE BETWEEN 04-12Z BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND TO
SOME OF THE INLAND SITES. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS
12Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEST OF CLEVELAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.