Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 181655
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1155 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain north of the region today as
high pressure remains centered over the southeast US. Two weak
cold fronts will drop south across the area late Tuesday and
again on Wednesday. High pressure builds back across the region
on Thursday behind a warm front lifting north through the
region. Low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No significant changes for the 1230 update.

Original discussion...
A damp, dreary yet fairly mild day is expected across the area
today, as a relatively humid airmass moves north across the
area. A weak disturbance will track east across the southern
Great Lakes through the day, which will allow for patchy drizzle
and a few light rain showers from west to east across the
forecast area. There could be some fog as well with the mild,
humid airmass eroding remaining snow cover, but the gradient
should be high enough to keep things fairly mixed, so will opt
for a patchy fog mention across portions of the area. Precip may
linger across northwest PA into tonight, and precip should
remain mostly liquid, although a few snow flakes cannot be ruled
out. Highs today will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with
cloudy skies. Lows tonight will not drop off too much, with
mid/upper 30s expected. Strong southerly flow/WAA will allow for
above normal temps on Tuesday, with highs in the mid 40s to
around 50 degrees south. A weak cold front will sink south
towards the region late in the day, with 850 temps dropping back
to -4C to -6C, so some possible lake effect may develop during
the late afternoon, primarily for the higher elevations of NW
PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Most of the short term period will be quiet and uneventful as zonal
flow gets established over the eastern U.S. This will result in
mild weather developing. After seasonable temps
Wednesday...highs on Thursday will average at least 5 degrees
above normal. A potent storm system will begin to approach from
the west on Thursday night. The 00z models have similar low
placement at 06Z Friday and it looks like by daybreak Friday
precip will be approaching the I-75 corridor. Although the
precip could start as a rain/snow mix it will quickly turn to
all rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term period will be active. Precip will spread across
the entire on Friday and will need likely wording many areas by
afternoon and all areas by Friday night. Suspect that even that
will eventually not be enough. A surface cold front will move
east of the area by daybreak Saturday and expect rain chances to
quickly diminish from west to east during the day. It appears
it will remain warm enough for all rain except perhaps at the
very western end of the area where a mix with snow is possible
just as the precip ends. No accumulation should occur. Some lake
effect is possible across NW PA Saturday night but it appears
that the atmosphere may be too dry for much if any accumulation.
Things get interesting on Sunday as the guidance all shows
another low pressure area approaching from the southwest. Some
warm air advection precip is possible by the end of the day
especially in the south. Precip type is still somewhat up in the
air.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Expect IFR/LIFR conditions to continue over most of the forecast
area. IFR cigs extend as far south as the Gulf coast and West
into IL. Think visibilites will improve from the SW this evening
as a weak secondary warm front lifts NE across the forecast
area. Cigs may pop up to MVFR for a few hours due to daytime
heating but expect cigs to lower to IFR again after sunset.

Conditions improve to MFVR tomorrow morning but gusty SW flow
will develop over the area.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible northeast OH and northwest PA
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds will continue till a cold front crosses the
lake sometime late Tuesday or Tuesday evening.  Speeds today and
tonight should be mainly under 15 knots but sustained winds Tuesday
may peak out as high as 25 knots. Will likely need small craft
headlines at some point. Moderate westerly winds are expected
Tuesday night behind the front with the flow eventually weakening
and becoming northwest on Wednesday.  By daybreak Thursday a surface
ridge will be east of the lake which will cause southeast flow to
develop.  By daybreak Friday moderate southerly winds are expected
with possible small craft conditions. A strong cold front will be
just west of the lake at the end of the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...DJB/Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Kubina



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