Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 312231
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
631 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016
A cold front to our north will drop south across the area this
evening. The front will continue to the Ohio River and stall
overnight. Meanwhile low pressure in North Dakota will move into
Ontario forcing the front back across the area as a warm front
Wednesday evening. A trailing cold front will follow on Thursday.
High pressure will build into the area Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
No major changes with this update. Just a few minor adjustments to
the hourly temperatures and dew points this evening.
A cold front to our north will drop across across the area this
evening. The airmass is dry and stable to no precip is expected.
Otherwise only cirrus across the area late this afternoon yielding
filtered sunshine. Expect this cirrus to persist into the night
before thinning so will go with partly cloudy wording most places.
guidance temps from the low and mid 50s northeast to 55 to 60
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday morning will begin with the cold front now stalled near
the Ohio river. The airmass across the area should be dry so will
begin with partly cloudy skies. As the day wears on however, low
pressure will move out of the Dakotas and into SWRN Ontario
driving the front back north as a warm front. Expect the front
back into or near the swrn cwa counties from KMNN to KFDY by
evening with moisture increasing in the west during the afternoon
ahead of the boundary. During the afternoon expect clouds to
increase in the west. Will need to include a chance pop far west
late afternoon as moisture increases and the front nears but
expect most will remain dry until Wednesday night as moisture
continues to increase in advance of an approaching cold front. The
front should move into the northwest Thursday morning and move
east across the area during the day...the precip...along and ahead
of the boundary. For the western half of the area will have likely
pops Wednesday night...increasing to categorical east late. Will
begin Thursday with categorical pops east and chance pops west,
decreasing from the west during the day as high pressure and drier
air begin to move in. The front will be slowing Thursday so will
need to hold onto chance pops through the evening east before
drying our overnight. Friday high pressure builds in from the
west so expect pc skies and temps a few degrees cooler. Highs
Wednesday in the low to mid 80s. Highs Thursday in the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Highs Friday in the mid 70s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Near seasonal temperatures can be expected on Saturday before an
upper level trough arrives bringing below normal temperatures to
start next week. Long range models show an upper level trough moving
through the northwest flow aloft and setting up over the eastern
Great Lakes for the extended portion of the forecast. Temperatures
on Saturday may be impacted by increasing mid and high cloud ahead
of the trough but will generally be in the mid to upper 70s. Did
introduce a chance of showers and thunderstorms into western areas
for the afternoon but expect it will take until Saturday evening for
chances of precipitation to reach the eastern areas. A broad area of
low pressure at the surface will move east across the Great Lakes
region pulling a cold front across the area on Sunday. Highs on
Sunday should still reach the lower 70s before eastern areas drop
back into the 60s for highs on Monday and Tuesday. Precipitation
timing from Sunday on will be highly dependent on shortwave energy
moving around the upper trough and will need to be resolved better
in later forecasts.
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
High pressure located north of the Great Lakes will maintain dry
weather and VFR conditions through the TAF cycle. Scattered cu
field will be in place this afternoon near 5k feet at CAK/YNG
with broken deck of cirrus. North to northeast winds of 10 knots
or less will slowly shift around to the east then south by
Wednesday afternoon. The exception to this will be near Lake Erie
where lake breezes can be expected again on Wednesday.
Outlook...Non-VFR Thursday then again Saturday night into Sunday with
shra and possible tsra.
Light northeast winds on Lake Erie will become more easterly and
increase to 10 to 15 knots on Wednesday as high pressure located
north of the lakes builds east into Quebec. The longer fetch down
the lake will contribute to wave heights building to near 3 feet on
the central portion of the lake. Winds will veer around to the south
on Wednesday night and eventually southwest with the passage of a
weak cold front on Thursday. High pressure will return on Friday and
start to shift east on Saturday.