Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 070307
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1007 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND A TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK AND PROVIDE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED
OUT THIS EVENING BUT WILL RETURN LATER. ADJUSTED MOST AREAS TO BE
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ALSO
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. STILL EXPECTING TO HIT MIN TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING THEN RISE OVERNIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE 00Z NAM WAS SHOWING. 18Z
GFS WAS A LITTLE OVERDONE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND HAVE SLOWED DOWN CHANCES OF SNOW ON SATURDAY. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SNOWBELT ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE. THIS WILL ALLOW MILDER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION AND PREVENT MUCH TEMPERATURE DROP AFTER SUNSET.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM KNOX TO YNG AND GKJ THE WIND MAY
BE TOO WEAK TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURE UP CONSIDERING THE SNOW COVER.
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES ON THE HRRR MODEL DROP THESE COUNTIES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BUT THIS APPEARS TOO COLD. WILL USE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT LOWERING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
SLIGHTLY AROUND SUNSET AND BEGIN A SLOW RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A MORE SEASONABLE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE BY IN
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
SNOWBELT. BUT WITH THE LAKE SURFACE ICE COVERED AND ONLY MINIMAL
COOLING AT LOW LEVELS...LITTLE OR NO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
SO ONLY RATHER LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST
MAINLY IN NW PA AND EXTREME NE OHIO. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 30S TO NEAR 40. HAVE NOT RAISED TEMPERATURES QUITE AS HIGH AS
INDICATED ON THE GFS MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO SNOW COVER AND RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT IS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH.  ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL GET BACK TO NORMAL IT
MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BE OFF OF FROZEN
LAKE ERIE.  TEMPS SHOULD MAKE THE MID 40S ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS
A DEGREE OR TWO WARM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  THIS IS PROBABLY
FORTUNATE AS IT WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE GRADUAL SNOW MELT.  PRECIP WILL
BE KNOCKING AT THE DOOR FROM THE SOUTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MID CLOUDS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
A MVFR CEILING WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION BUT NOT SURE ABOUT THE TIMING...IT COULD BE AS EARLY AS
PRE DAWN SATURDAY OR PERHAPS TAKE AS LONG AS MIDDAY SATURDAY. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY BUT WILL JUST MENTION "VICINITY" FOR
THE TIME BEING UNTIL WE GET GET A BETTER IDEA ON THE TIMING AND
COVERAGE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY AND SWITCHES THE FLOW TO THE WEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
QUICKLY CHANGING THE FLOW BACK TO THE SW. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL
SCOOT THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH JUST A BRIEF SWITCH TO THE WEST. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER 15 KNOTS DURING THE PERIOD SO SHIFTING
OF THE EXISTING ICE FIELDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...KEC/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KUBINA






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