Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 040138
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
938 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER AND PRODUCED 56 MPH GUSTS AT
KBKL HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STILL SOME SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE FAR NE CORNER OF OHIO. THESE WILL EXIT THE STATE
SHORTLY AND MOVE ACROSS NW PA. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE THEY EXIT ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. BEHIND THAT...DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DEWPOINT HAVE ALREADY
DIPPED INTO THE LOWER 50S IN NW OH AND BY MORNING THIS DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT OVER NW PA GIVEN THIS DRY AIR. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS IS A LITTLE COOLER ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. IF
CLOUD COVER ENDS UP BEING MORE THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPERATURES MAY
NEED TO BE LOWERED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
TROUGHS WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED OFF TO THE SE WITH THIS TROUGH.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SE TO BE NEAR LAKE ERIE BY THE END OF THE
DAY TUE. ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COLLECT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MUCH OF THE CU AND CONVECTION TO
DISSIPATE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR AN ISOLATED SHRA AND SCT TO BKN CIGS TO HANG AROUND ERI
TONIGHT.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL CU TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING
INTO MIDDAY ON TUE WITH THE THREAT FOR WIDELY SCT SHRA CONTINUING IN
NW PA.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
HIGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE EXTENDED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM FROM
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO RIPLEY. CONDITIONS MAY STILL BE A LITTLE
CHOPPY WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES OFF OF LAKE COUNTY BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO IMPROVE.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST WIND. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE MAY BE AND
WINDS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC


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