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000
FXUS61 KCLE 251602
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1203 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT
TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE A A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR MIDDAY UPDATE...FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING UP
TEMP RISE SOME SO WILL CUT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE.

REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S NE TO
MID 60S SW. CU THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE EAST LOOKS TO HAVE PEAKED
ALREADY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S SUNDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPS REBOUND TO AROUND 6C. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS THE HIGH
MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TUESDAY 12Z 850MB TEMPS JUST TO
12-14C. AGAIN GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE WITH 70S TO AROUND 80. MAIN
CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE
FRONT. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND EVERYWHERE
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO
PRECIP MENTIONED AT THIS POINT. WHILE THERE COULD BE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...THERE IS NO REAL SYNOPTIC FOCUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE RETURNED BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...WITH 80S AREA
WIDE THE ENTIRE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR
TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE...AS GUIDANCE WAS RUNNING COOL WITH THE PREVIOUS
WARM AIRMASS. LAKE BREEZES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PA AND FAR NE OH
LAKESHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24+ HOURS.
OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED EARLY MORNING FG/BR...CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WILL STILL GET A
MINOR GUST OR TWO OUT OF ERI AND YNG THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NNW.
MAY GET A LITTLE BR AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY CAK AND YNG.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LETTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE. WAVES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE PA SHORES. ALSO SOME CONCERN
THAT THE WINDS COULD PICK UP AGAIN THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MORE ACROSS THE LAKE...THE THREAT FOR
4+ FOOT WAVES WILL DIMINISH. HAVE STARTED OUR RIP CURRENT
PROGRAM...AND WITH THE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WITHIN THE SMALL CRAFT AREA. REMEMBER THOUGH
LAKE TEMPS ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 50S. NNW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGH AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY. HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT ON THE LAKE. A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH TUESDAY. LAKE AT THIS POINT WILL BE FAIRLY
STABLE AS WARM AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THAT FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN