Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
975 FXUS64 KCRP 081115 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 615 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 614 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 - Potential for hazardous beach conditions due to minor coastal flooding, increases late in the week. Medium to high chance advisories will be needed, especially Thursday and Friday. - Low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms daily through Thursday, mainly in the Coastal Bend and Coastal PLains. - Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Daily rain chances of 10-30% will continue through Thursday due to a moderate easterly low level flow advecting moisture across S TX. PWATs will generally be 1.5-1.8 inches. This moisture combined with a mid level short wave tracking southeast around the southeastern periphery of a mid level high currently centered over W TX. The high pressure is forecast to move southeast bringing a drier airmass across S TX Friday,with rain chances dropping to <10% over the weekend and into early next week. The potential for minor coastal flooding and moderate to high rip current risk will continue due to a persistent northeast to east flow over the coastal waters. The winds are forecast to strengthen to 15-25 knots across the coastal waters on Thursday and Friday which will aid in driving the water up the shore. However, we will be moving away from the full moon and swell periods are forecast to decrease during this work week. However, by the weekend swell periods increase slightly. The P-ETSS does show tide levels over 2ft MSL through the week but this model seems to have been overestimating recently. Given the combination of favorable and unfavorable parameters, will hold off issuing a Coastal Flood Advisory and/or High Rip Current Risk for now and will continue to monitor how the tides are responding. Will continue a Moderate Rip Current Risk. As for tropical weather, the National Hurricane Center is watching an area of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche. There is a low 10% chance of development before it moves inland over southern Mexico. Impacts are not expected for S TX. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Mainly VFR conditions to prevail through this TAF period. Easterly winds this afternoon with gusts up to around 20 knots. Drier air near the surface will limit fog/low ceiling potential overnight tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 A gentle to moderate onshore breeze (BF 3-4) will continue through Wednesday morning and will shift northeasterly by Wednesday afternoon. The northeast wind will strengthen to a fresh to strong (BF 5-6) flow Thursday through Friday, then weakening to a moderate (BF4) over the weekend. Low to moderate (20-50%) shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through Thursday. Very low rain chances of 10-20% close out the rest of the week as drier air filters across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 RH values remain moderate through the end of the week (>30%) with light to moderate winds. Drier air is expected to move across the region Friday and continue through the weekend with briefly low RH values slightly below 30%, mainly northern Brush Country to the Rio Grande Plains. However, a generally weak wind should preclude any fire weather threats. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 74 89 73 / 20 10 20 10 Victoria 94 70 92 65 / 10 10 10 0 Laredo 95 73 93 70 / 20 10 10 0 Alice 93 71 92 69 / 10 0 10 0 Rockport 90 76 90 73 / 10 10 20 0 Cotulla 95 72 94 70 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 91 72 90 70 / 20 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 87 78 86 77 / 20 10 30 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TE/81 AVIATION...BF/80