419
FXUS64 KCRP 210633
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
133 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Key Messages:

- Low to medium (20-40%) chance for showers and storms across much
of the area this afternoon and tonight.

Increasing moisture behind a retreating front will lead to a low (20-
40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Low chances
for thunderstorms will continue through tonight as convection
develops over the mountains of Mexico and drift east. Model guidance
indicates these storms making it across the Rio Grande; however,
weak winds in the lower levels will limit the chances for organized
storms over South Texas. Still, these high terrain storms from
Mexico often throw us a curveball so, should these make it across
the river tonight, we will be monitoring these for strong winds and
large hail. Chances for rain will diminish through Thursday with an
upper-level ridge helping to keep chances low (5-15%).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Major Heat Risk Friday through Sunday.

- Increased chances for precipitation in the upcoming week bringing
slight relief from the heat through the upcoming mid-week.

As surface high pressure over the Central Plains continues to shift
eastward through this weekend, and surface low pressure developing
over eastern Colorado, South Texas will once again be stuck in the
hot and muggy sector. On Friday, the Heat Risk will predominately be
Moderate (level 2 of 4), maxing out across the northern Brush
Country with Major risk (level 3 of 4). Saturday, this area of upper
90s to low 100s for high temperatures spread across the region,
resulting in Major Heat Risk expanding even more.

Meanwhile, the Colorado surface low will start moving into
northern/central Texas, with a boundary that will be the focus of
increased chances of precipitation from Sunday night through at
least Tuesday. This low will weak with a stalled front remaining
over central TX. This will be the focus of low-level moisture
convergence capable of supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms. NBM probabilities show that a 72 hr period ending
Wednesday morning for rainfall accumulations exceeding 1 inch have a
moderate chance of occurring (30-50%). Though this isn`t the drought
buster the region needs, this has been the best chance we`ve seen
for amounts in excess of 1 inch in several weeks. Consequently,
highs Tuesday and next Wednesday are struggling to break out of the
low 90s with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

A stalled boundary over the area makes the details of the forecast
tonight difficult. Expectation would be for some MVFR CIGS and
visibility briefly between 3-6SM south of the front overnight,
while north of the front VFR conditions will persist. ALI/CRP could
end up on either side of this boundary, but have leaned toward
MVFR CIGS and reduced visibility for that site. Winds will be
mainly light out of the east through the period. VFR conditions
return my late morning with northeasterly winds at 10-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

A light to gentle (BF 2-3) east to southeasterly breeze will
continue through Thursday, though brief periods of moderate (BF 4)
winds are likely across the southern bays each afternoon. There is a
low (15-35%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across the waters
today through Thursday. Gentle (BF 3) southeasterly winds with
2-3 ft seas will increase to moderate and fresh strength (BF 4-5)
with seas increasing to near 4 ft Friday night and lasting through
Saturday night. Seas then increase to 5-6 ft Sunday morning with
increase chances (30-50%) for showers and thunderstorms through
the upcoming mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  77  91  76 /  20  10  10   0
Victoria          93  74  95  72 /  10  10  10   0
Laredo            98  75  98  76 /  30  30  10  10
Alice             94  75  95  74 /  30  20  10   0
Rockport          87  78  87  78 /  20  10  10   0
Cotulla           98  76  99  76 /  10  10  10  10
Kingsville        93  76  93  76 /  30  20  10   0
Navy Corpus       85  78  85  79 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....AE/82
AVIATION...AE/82