233
FXUS63 KFGF 282328
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
528 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow tonight into Saturday across far southeast North
  Dakota and parts of west central Minnesota. 35 percent chance
  of more than 3 inches in areas near the South Dakota border.

- Below average temperatures for the weekend and into next
  week, with low chances for some minor winter impacts towards
  the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...Synopsis...

Large, positively tilted trough continues to dig down over the
Rockies, coming out into the Plains tonight. The main embedded
shortwave energy will be to the south across the Central Plains
into IA/IL. Main low will be well to the south, but inverted
trough will extend into our southern counties for a while
tonight and tomorrow. The surface high nudges in for Saturday
night, with northwesterly flow aloft. The northwesterly flow
continues into next week, with several weak reinforcing
shortwaves dropping heights and bringing cold air. The weak
shortwaves also could bring some periodic light snow, although
confidence is low on any impacts.

...Accumulating snow tonight and Saturday in the south...

Already starting to get some very light radar returns over our
far southwestern counties, but web cams show nothing reaching
the ground yet. There is decent agreement with the CAMs on
better radar returns entering after midnight. The HREF
probabilities of an inch or more are above 50 percent for most
of southeastern North Dakota into far west central MN, mainly
southwest of a Valley City to Kindred line. Think accumulating
snow is likely. Probabilities of 3 or more inches, drop down to
a small area of around 35 percent near the SD border, with
probabilities of over 4 inches around 20 percent. At this point,
best chances look to be in the 1 to 3 inch range, with just a
slight chance for advisory criteria. Still not certain enough
for headlines at this point as best chances for getting up to 3
or 4 inches are fairly limited in area. Winds will also not be
an issue, remaining under 10 mph.

...Cold temperatures and low chances for snow into next week...

ECMWF EFI has a pretty good signal for colder than average
temperatures as we move into next week, and this fits the mean
synoptic pattern. Not as strong of a signal for precipitation,
although the ensemble members do show various shortwaves moving
through, particularly towards the end of the period. Cold is
certain, any winter impacts from snow less so.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Areas of MVFR status and flurries continue to linger over much
of northeast ND and northwest MN, with an area of VFR conditions
over southeast ND. Short range guidance is not handling the
currently extend of MVFR conditions well compared to
obs/satellite and I am not as confident based on trends that
prevailing VFR will arrive farther north before the low pressure
system brings near low stratus into the region and I made more
pessimistic adjustments to better reflect current trends.

Later tonight and Saturday morning the new stratus with a
chance (30%) for IFR conditions arrives in southeastern ND as
accumulating snow moves along the ND/SD border eventually into
west central MN. The best chance for prolonged VFR conditions
may not arrive until much drier low level air advects in behind
the low pressure (winds shifting to the northwest) late Saturday
afternoon and evening, otherwise the pattern will continue to
support highly variable ceilings.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR