561
FXUS63 KFGF 300536
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1136 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow gradually ends this evening from northwest to southeast.

- Below average temperatures continue into next week as Arctic
  air pushes southward into the Northern Plains and Upper
  Midwest. There is a low chance for minor winter impacts
  towards the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Continued to increase cloud cover and flurry mention for a
longer period overnight. Can`t rule out a few breaks overnight
but overall still looks pretty cloudy upstream with a few
flurries here and there.

UPDATE
Issued at 945 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Clouds have moved through much of the forecast area and the
clear spot has mostly disappeared, and plenty of upstream clouds
so adjusted clouds up through the rest of the night. Also seeing
flurries on and off wherever there is cloud cover, so will
continue mention into early Sunday morning.

UPDATE
Issued at 541 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Still getting reports of flurries at times across northwestern
counties where it is clouding in again. Expanded flurry mention
and tweaked cloud cover to match current satellite trends.
Should see the clear area from the northern Red River Valley
down towards Valley City disappear in the next few hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 408 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...Synopsis...

North to northwest H5 flow will bring a surge of Arctic air into the
region tonight, with reinforcing cold air by mid week. Temperatures
are expected to be well below average through the forecast period,
with several chances to fall below zero. The best chances will be
where we have the deepest snow pack, generally in southeast North
Dakota and west central Minnesota. A shortwave brings precipitation
chances back into the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with
some uncertainty regarding the availability of moisture. Most
ensemble guidance is hinting at generally low QPF and snow
potential. Temps at 850mb have good support down into the -25C to -
20C range heading into Thursday, following the cold front. A second
system approaches toward the end of the week, with slightly better
moisture potential; however, ensemble spread at this time is too
high to support any single solution.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Mostly MVFR to VFR, and upstream observations show more of that
mix, along with a few spots with IFR ceilings and flurries for
good measure. Most sites should have at least a period of MVFR
ceilings by morning, with flurries on and off mostly in the
3-5SM range if any restriction at all. Some improvement to VFR
is possible at all sites during the day tomorrow, with rising
ceilings and possibly a few breaks in the clouds by the end of
the period. North to northwest winds at 10 to 15 kts will
continue that direction overnight before shifting more to the
west then southwest by late tomorrow.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR