736
FXUS63 KFGF 100524
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1124 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very difficult travel conditions today into tonight due to
  snow and ice covered roads, reduced visibility from heavy snow
  rates and blowing snow, as well as gusty winds. Lingering
  impacts from snow showers and blowing snow are expected
  tonight into early Wednesday.

- High winds are expected over the next 1-3 hours in southeast
  North Dakota. Wind gusts over 50 mph are expected.

- Much colder temperatures will arrive late week, with a 80
  percent chance for wind chills to drop to -30 or colder.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Heavy snowfall rates have come to an end across the region. With
the highest winds in the location where the least blowable snow
is, impacts should have greatly improved. Expect at least some
visibility reductions and drifting snow with patchy blowing snow
through the overnight period.

UPDATE
Issued at 943 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Snow continues to push southward this evening. For the most
part, heavier snowfall rates have ended in the northern half of
the region, so the Winter Storm Warning there has been
downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory. Further south, high
winds are approaching southeast North Dakota. Wind gusts as high
as 67 mph have been observed to the west. Based on where cold
air advection is strongest, the expectation is for the strongest
winds to be just south of our region, however 50-65+ mph gusts
are expected along the ND/SD state border.

Conditions should slowly begin to improve after midnight for the
most part as the heaviest impacts continue to move away from the
region. Hazardous travel conditions will at least linger into
tomorrow morning as snow showers will be ongoing through the
night into tomorrow.

UPDATE
Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

A heavy snow band is working its way through Grand Forks to
Crookston right now and is dropping visibilities to between
1/4SM to 3/4SM. An additional few inches are expected over the
next several hours across the heaviest snowfall bands. Further
south, a transition from freezing rain to snow is ongoing,
particularly at FAR where freezing rain changed over to snow at
the observation station. The heaviest snowfall rates should
start to diminish around midnight, but horizontal convective
rolls are still expected to develop but we don`t know how
widespread they will be. As a result, no headline changes on
this update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...Synopsis...

After the passing of the current stronger clipper, the large scale
pattern continues to be dominated by northwest flow with an
additional (weaker) clipper passing through the region Wednesday
night into Thursday. This brings medium chances for light snow and
lower probabilities for minor (advisory) impacts as probabilities for
3"+ snowfall are less than 20%. Falling heights/deepening mid/upper
lows in Canada towards Hudson Bay will bring a series of arctic
fronts through the region during the second half of the week into
the weekend along with the coldest air of the season so far.

...Winter Storm Impacts Ongoing...

The current strong clipper continues to bring impacts resulting in
difficult travel across our CWA. The mid level wave is centered over
our CWA, with the surface low over SE ND/NE SD while places the
stronger gradient and speed max to our west and south through this
evening. This has also resulted in much lower winds than previously
forecast across our north, with the best potential for higher gusts
closer to the SD state line this evening. Max Tw aloft is below
freezing where most precipitation is occuring, though far southeast
ND is still warmer with a rain/snow mix and a narrow corridor where
freezing rain may still be lingering (southwest of Cass County). The
most organized area of snow and embedded heavy snow banding is
extending from northeast ND into northwest and towards west central
MN currently, with decreasing trends to the west of this. Heavier
rates within this area are ranging from 0.5 to 1.5"/hr based on radar
estimates. As the mid level wave continues southeast the stronger
forcing will exit the region resulting in decreasing intensity of
lingering snow.

The general progression favors this more organized
area of snow weakening through the rest of the afternoon and early
evening, however CAA and speed shear aloft in the mixed layer will
keep lingering snow showers over the region. Wind impacts and the
threat for widespread blowing snow/whiteout is greatly diminished
due to the current track for much of our area, however, visibility
reductions are still anticipated just where snow showers track and
rates still potentially approach 0.5/hr. The coverage of which may
continue to decrease after midnight becoming less and less of a
concern as winds continue to decrease through Wednesday morning.
Weather related impacts thus may linger, though the impact/risk may
eventually be more in line with advisory (minor) or sub advisory
categories overnight into the morning hours Wednesday. We`ll monitor
and adjust products accordingly dependent on coverage.

...High winds/slick travel impacts...

Where higher winds actually occur in the far southeast (towards the
SD border) there is a risk for increased travel impacts especially
where roads are already slick as higher profile/light weight
vehicles may be prone to jostling on the slick roads. This is
something to keep in mind if you are traveling this afternoon
through this evening when winds begin to increase.

...Arctic air and cold/wind chills impacts...

Late this week arctic air begins to arrive and the cold air mass
over the weekend will support lows in the negative teens and 20s,
and there is a strong signal for at least advisory (-30) wind
chills. Depending on wind speeds warning criteria (-40) may be met
with increasing chances particularly north of Highway 2.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility will prevail for the first
12 hours of the TAF period. This will be caused by periodic
bursts of heavier snowfall rates and isolated blowing snow. For
the most part, however, conditions should remain primarily MVFR.
VFR ceilings may come in and out at times as well, but generally
cloud decks should remain between 015-025.

Winds will remain the northwesterly for the entire TAF period
with sustained winds decreasing after 18z. Expect gradual
improvements to visibility but ceilings remaining MVFR through
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ049-052-053.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for
     MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...Perroux