686
FXUS63 KFGF 091922
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
122 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No impactful weather is expected through the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...Synopsis...

Water vapor this afternoon shows a deep trough over eastern portions
of CONUS. A reinforcing shortwave booking through our FA has left us
under a stratus deck of clouds that is producing a few
flurries. Snow and flurries have been most prevalent downwind of
our larger lakes, which are still warm and open. However, when
looking at webcams, they show very little in the way of any
accumulation. Temperatures are stuck in the 20s early this
afternoon, and when you add in northwesterly winds gusting 20 to
30 mph, wind chills have barely managed to reach the double
digits in may spots. This cold snap will be short lived, as
ridging will start building in on Monday. In response,
temperatures in the low to mid 30s Monday afternoon should hold
nearly steady Monday night, then rapidly rise on Tuesday with
highs in the 40s to even 50s in southeastern ND. Within the WAA
regime Monday evening/night, a few showers look to develop.
There is quite a bit of dry air in place, so it is questionable
how much if any will reach the ground. With a deep warm nose
aloft, ptype will be complicated. Surface temperatures still
near freezing add another layer of uncertainty, as if any
sprinkles can reach the ground there could be a very brief
period of freezing rain on the MN side of the FA. This will be
something to monitor through tomorrow afternoon, but any
associated impacts look to be low at this time.

Thereafter, northwest flow returns, with this FA set up on the
baroclinic zone, much like we were for last week. Temperatures will
remain consistently in the 40s, warming further Friday/Saturday as a
ridge builds in. This quieter weather pattern will come to some sort
of an end late next weekend, as southwest flow begins to take shape.
Ensembles show a wide variety of potential scenarios, with little
consistency in the timing/track/intensity of any system(s).
Therefore, will keep low mention of precipitation in the forecast
for next weekend, but until predictability increases, no real
details can be added.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Ceilings will be the main challenge of this TAF period.
Currently, MVFR with some IFR pockets are roaming the region.
To account for the IFR pockets, put in a TEMPO at KBJI, where
IFR coverage is greatest but not prevailing. General thinking
is that ceilings will hold about where they currently are
through early tonight, then rise into VFR by Monday morning.
There could be a few flurries under this stratus deck, but they
will bring no aviation impacts so left any mention out of the
TAFs. Winds will remain out of the north/northwest for today,
then switch to the south/southwest by Monday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty