482
FXUS64 KHUN 041118
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
518 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 922 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

 - Low to medium chances of fog tonight into early Tuesday across
   much of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

 - Dry conditions and a gradual warming trend will continue
   through Thursday night.

 - Conditions appear conducive for a risk of strong to severe
   thunderstorms at some point from Friday-Saturday night, with
   timing still highly uncertain. A much colder airmass will
   follow in the wake of this system early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 356 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

Light winds and clear skies have allowed temperatures this morning
to dip down into the upper 30s to lower 40s. With a few more hours
until sunrise, expect area temperatures to drop a few more
degrees. Unlike yesterday morning, fog has remained contained to
along the river based on nighttime microphysics satellite
imagery. Given that no sites have shown much visibility reductions
as of yet, the threat of widespread dense fog appears low.

With high pressure centered overhead, an overall nice Fall day is
in store. Ample sunshine combined with southerly flow will help
temperatures climb up into the upper 60s to lower 70s this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 922 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

For the remainder of the week, low temperatures will become
milder. High pressure over the region should shift to the east
during Wed/Thu, resulting in a deeper southerly flow. This will
help moderate daily temperatures. Lows Tue night should cool into
the lower 40s, and low/mid 40s Wed night. Even with milder
conditions, we cannot totally rule out late night patch fog
development, confined mainly in/near wind sheltered locations and
near bodies of water. And under generally sunny to partly cloudy
skies, high temperatures on Wed/Thu should rise into the lower 70s
both days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 922 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Two main features of focus for the long term period will be a
system that brings potentially strong storms Friday and an influx
of cold air early next week. Significant disagreement remains in
clusters regarding the evolution and track of an upper level
disturbance shifting generally eastward throughout the U.S. into
the Tennessee Valley vicinity this weekend. LREF shows up to
400-500 J/kg of CAPE moving in along and west of I-65 Friday
afternoon/evening, which could allow some strong storms if
realized. However, confidence remains low due to the
aforementioned disagreement. Blended guidance was kept in the
forecast through the long term due to uncertainty, which brings
medium chances of showers and thunderstorms into the area by
Friday afternoon and continues rain chances through Friday
evening.

Ensembles are agreeing on an influx of cold air early next week,
in which we could drop into the upper 20s to low 30s for overnight
lows (potentially prompting freeze products). The Climate
Predication Center (CPC) has outlooked portions of NE AL in a
moderate risk (40-60%) for much below normal temperatures on
November 11th. Therefore, if you have any agricultural or outdoor
interests, it will be important to stay up to date on the latest
forecast through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

VFR conditions with light winds will continue through the TAF
period. Added a tempo group this morning for the potential for fog
to reduce visibilities. While none has impacted the terminals as
of yet, satellite imagery shows it along the TN River.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1246 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

The Climate Prediction Center has included areas along and east
of I-65 in a Moderate risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures for
November 11th. Temperatures below 28-32 degrees F are possible
during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...GH