155
FXUS64 KJAN 050538
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1238 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Rain chances will increase in the near term, but warm and
   mostly dry weather will continue to be the general theme as we
   go through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Tonight through Tuesday: A weak area of low pressure over the
northern gulf will meander northward as we finished up the weekend
and move into early next week. Increased moist cyclonic flow with
this feature will support light to moderate rainfall chances,
particularly during times of peak heating. Because of a very
precip efficient airmass in the lower levels with a deep warm
cloud layer, a few locally heavy bands of rainfall can`t be ruled
out, but rainfall amounts on the average are not expected to make
much of a dent in the recent rainfall deficit. /EC/

Wednesday and beyond: A fast moving cold front will sink south
into and through the forecast area Wednesday. This will allow for
only an isolated chance of a shower or storm across the region.
High pressure at the surface will quickly build southeast into the
Lower Mississippi River Valley in the front`s wake. Not much of
an airmass change is currently expected to accompany this frontal
passage, as only a slightly drier air will advect into the region.
Still, less humid conditions will exist as highs hover in the 80s
and lows generally fall into the 60s Thursday and Friday. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions prevail for the first half of the period, then MVFR
ceilings start to move in from the south early this afternoon. A
few showers are possible as well. Winds will be from the east
around 11kts, with some gusts up to 20kts possible./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  71  84  70 /  30  40  40  20
Meridian      84  68  83  67 /  40  50  40  10
Vicksburg     86  71  87  70 /  20  30  40  30
Hattiesburg   83  71  85  70 /  50  50  50  10
Natchez       85  69  87  70 /  30  40  40  20
Greenville    88  70  85  69 /  10  40  50  40
Greenwood     88  70  85  69 /  10  40  50  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/19/SAS20