Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
918 FXUS64 KLZK 260855 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 255 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 215 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 - Strong cold front brings temps down to near average today through the weekend with dry weather persisting through Fri - Upper level storm system expected to bring precip Sat/Sun morning - Additional precip possible Mon/Tues with limited wintry mix possible depending on timing; temps below average beyond Sun && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 All was quite across AR early this Weds morning. A potent cold front was sweeping across the state with only notable features being scattered high clouds (Nrn AR) and winds becoming NWrly at 10-20 kts in wake of the boundary. Highs today will top out in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Cloud cover should increase across Nrn AR this evening into the overnight period with the passage of weak upper level energy. No precip is expected this evening or overnight. Thanksgiving Day, sfc high pressure will settle into the region. Winds will be Nrly at less than 10 kts. Skies will be clear after morning lows starting out near 30 to upper 30s. Highs should rebound into the lower to middle 50s. Similar conds are expected on Fri however highs may be a couple degrees cooler and clouds will increase from SW to NE during the day. An upper level disturbance is expected to move across the region within quasi-zonal flow Sat into Sat night. This feature will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms back to the state Sat through Sun morning. Cold air will linger Sat morning despite low-level warm air advection well underway. Current thinking is precip will start off as all liquid even if sfc temps in the Ozarks are near freezing due to a progressive warm nose in the H925-H700 layer. Sfc temps will gradually warm through the day as warm/moist air lifts Nwrd into a sfc low situated invof Nrn MO/Srn IA. Showers should diminish from the NW on Sun morning right as another shot of colder air moves back into AR in the wake of a cold front. The forecast gets more convoluted Mon and Tues. An upper level trough is expected to dig over the Four Corners region Sun night/Mon morning which will shift zonal flow over the Cntrl CONUS to SWrly flow. Upper level energy is expected to eject from the trough axis on Mon/Mon night overtop a cold airmass in place. Substantial difference do arise in regards to precip start time, duration, precip end time, and even sfc temps which could prove to be crucial. One model feature I noted with some consistency is a robust complex of showers and storms developing along the TX/LA/MS coast. In past situations, a strong complex of showers and storms to our S generally robs moisture further N which would include AR and surrounding states. Models tend to not pick up on this scenario very well. Thats an immediate concern I see in the data right away. Secondly, subfreezing corridor appears to dip into Nrn portions of AR but uncertainty exists to how far S this freezing line progresses. Third, NBM temps appear to have quite the diurnal range despite an abundance of clouds and scattered precip. Without sufficient sources of cold air advection/warm air advection, temperature range should be somewhat limited. And thats what I would expect, a limited diurnal range in temps. Question remaining is does precip develop far enough N to overlap subfreezing sfc temps. Above the surface, winds will either promote return flow (warming) or remain unimpeded (neutral/cold). A warming scenario or neutral scenario would likely yield different P-types, at least in the AM when sfc temps are at their coolest. Afternoon temps should climb into mid 30s at minimum so no issues there. Thinking there could be brief period of mixed precip Mon night/Tues morning assuming precip is collocated with subfreezing air. The operational ECMWF is a bit slower with much more moisture N into the state (I believe this is more unlikely due to explanation above) and the operational GFS is bit quicker, less precip, but colder sfc temps. Both long term operational models have precip exiting by midday Tues. ECMWF and GEFS ensemble data does little to clear up some of these uncertainties. Even if mixed precip comes to fruition, amounts should be on the lighter side given warm ground temps followed by above freezing daily temps. Stay tuned over the next several days as details hopefully get ironed out approaching early next week. Without question temps Sun through Tues will be well below climatological averages. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. FROPA is expected overnight with light W winds becoming NW between 10-20 kts in wake of the boundary. Skies will clear behind the front. High clouds are expected to return Wed afternoon with the passage of a weak upper level feature. No precip is expected from this feature. Wind gusts will diminish after sunset. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 52 35 53 30 / 0 10 0 0 Camden AR 56 33 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 48 31 50 28 / 0 10 0 0 Hot Springs AR 55 35 55 32 / 0 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 54 37 55 33 / 0 10 0 0 Monticello AR 57 36 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 55 33 58 31 / 0 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 49 32 51 27 / 0 10 0 0 Newport AR 52 37 52 30 / 0 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 55 34 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 55 34 57 32 / 0 10 0 0 Searcy AR 53 34 54 29 / 0 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 53 35 52 32 / 0 10 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...70