117
FXUS64 KLZK 011120
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
620 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

-Sunny skies expected today with light winds and diurnal cumulus
this afternoon.

-A weak upper level disturbance will bring a chance for an isolated
shower or thunderstorm on Thursday.

-Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm averaging roughly
 5 to 8 degrees for high temperatures through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

High pressure centered over N IL this morning is progged to slide
southeast into the Ohio Valley later today allowing for partly
cloudy to mostly sunny skies to continue today across the entire
state. The ridge of high pressure will continue to slide east on
Thursday to be centered over the eastern US. As the weak
disturbance currently visible on WV this morning slides east,
moisture will continue to increase from south to southeast flow
streaming north into the state. The combination of increased
moisture and instability will allow for a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop on Thursday afternoon.

By Friday, high pressure aloft continues to dominate with dry
weather and light winds expected. By this weekend, both
deterministic models continue to show the development of an upper
low/inverted trough over the vicinity of S AL/N FL. Latest model
guidance continues to diverge on solutions related to track of the
upper low/inverted trough this weekend into early next week. The
GFS solution is just north of the current ECMWF solution showing
the upper low/trough over eastern MS into NW LA sometime on
Saturday. Other than some mid and high level cloudiness, no other
weather is expected from this feature on Sunday.

By Monday, model guidance shows a weak upper low over the Gulf
coast will move north toward the ArklaTex region will help to pull
moisture north into the state. At the same time, a frontal
boundary will dive southeast but remain over the central Plains
just northwest of the state. The combination of both features will
lead to enough ascent for isolated showers and thunderstorms over
much of the state mainly on Monday afternoon. By Tuesday into
Wednesday, high pressure builds back in at the lower and mid
levels of the atmosphere largely suppressing the chance for any
convection over the state.

High temperatures across the state will be roughly 6 to 8 degrees
above normal, then around 5 to 7 degrees above normal with light
and variable winds through most of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Light and
variable winds are in the forecast along with some afternoon
diurnal CU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  90  62  87 /   0  10   0   0
Camden AR         65  88  62  86 /  10  20   0   0
Harrison AR       61  85  60  84 /   0  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    66  88  63  86 /   0  20   0   0
Little Rock   AR  68  87  64  86 /   0  10   0   0
Monticello AR     68  90  64  87 /  10  10   0   0
Mount Ida AR      63  88  62  86 /   0  20   0   0
Mountain Home AR  62  88  61  87 /   0  10   0   0
Newport AR        65  90  63  87 /   0  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     66  90  62  86 /   0  10   0   0
Russellville AR   65  90  63  87 /   0  10   0   0
Searcy AR         66  90  62  87 /   0  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      68  89  64  86 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...76