061
FXUS64 KLZK 011702
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1102 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

+  Winter weather expected starting this morning and lasting
   into tonight across the majority of the forecast area.

+  Freezing rain will predominate across central, north central,
   southern and western Arkansas. Snow and some sleet are
   possible over northwest Arkansas.

+  A large part of the forecast area is under a winter weather
   advisory from 6 AM today until 6 AM Tuesday.

+  Impacts will largely be minor but higher amounts of freezing
   rain remain possible over central sections with higher impacts
   possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Overall the forecast appears to be in good shape with only some
minor tweaks needed. Biggest change this morning was to include
Ouachita and  Calhoun counties in the winter weather advisory.
Satellite imagery this morning shows a definite increase in gulf
moisture but the majority of it is of the mid to high level variety.
Surface observations have already dropped in the upper 20s to mid
30s. Guidance continues to temperatures bottoming out in the lower
20s to lower 30s around sunrise.

Synoptic pattern has not deviated much over the past few models runs
with a sharp upper trough digging through the central Rockies at
this time. As this feature continues to dig, upper flow will turn to
the southwest allowing for deeper moisture to arrive as weak low
pressure develops and traverses the gulf coast. Warm air advection
off the deck and the aforementioned moisture will move over an air
mass that will struggle to get out of the 30s as surface high
pressure to our north keeps surface flow out of the N to NE.

Timing of the precip still looks reasonable, starting over the
southwest early this morning and spreading to the E/NE with time.
Upper trough will pass over the state late today as the surface low
to our south pulls out, taking whatever moisture remains with it.
Precipitation looks to be pretty much done by midnight in our CWA.

Highest QPF remains over the SE and tapers off to the NW where
impacts will be less. Biggest question mark with precipitation type
will be the amount of, or lack of low level moisture. Models
indicate the best moisture doesn`t stick around very long. In
addition, once precipitation does initiate, wet bulbing could also
bring a little more sleet than what is currently being indicated.

On the positive side, QPF is overly low and while the overall
impacts will be minor, there remains areas where icing could be more
of a problem. Surface temperatures do warm above freezing during the
afternoon and road temperatures will likely stay just above freezing
with main travel impacts on elevated roadways.

Sub freezing temperatures are expected Monday night and any water on
area roadways could refreeze. Surface ridge overspreads the region
on Tuesday with temperatures climbing back into the 40s. Southerly
winds return for Wednesday with highs climbing back into the upper
40s to mid 50s.

Temperatures get knocked back down on Thursday and Friday as another
upper trough approaches from the west. Overall it does not appear to
be as cold Thursday night and Friday when compared to today but
there will be at least another chance of winter weather across the
North and Northeast. Temperatures will continue to run well below
normal, even for early December.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Expect light wintry precipitation across most terminals besides
those in the far southeastern part of the state (sites of KPBF and
KLLQ) to begin the period. Expect wintry precipitation to remain
forecast into Monday evening across the state. Additionally, CIGS
will lower to as low as IFR flight category across portions of the
state with most locations falling to MVFR flight category. The site
of KPBF will experience a possible changeover to wintry
precipitation later Monday evening. All terminals will experience
improvement back to VFR flight category by later Tuesday morning as
CIGS lift.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     25  42  25  48 /  40   0   0   0
Camden AR         25  44  25  52 /  60   0   0   0
Harrison AR       22  43  26  50 /  20   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    23  45  25  51 /  40   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  27  43  26  51 /  50   0   0   0
Monticello AR     28  43  27  53 /  70   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      23  48  26  53 /  30   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  22  41  24  49 /  30   0   0   0
Newport AR        25  40  24  46 /  50   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     25  41  24  50 /  70   0   0   0
Russellville AR   25  46  26  53 /  30   0   0   0
Searcy AR         23  42  23  48 /  50   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      25  40  26  48 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>046-052>056-062-063-066-067-103-
112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-
238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...74