379
FXUS64 KMAF 090720
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
120 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

- A cold front brings much cooler temperatures today and Monday
  with Monday morning lows reaching at or below freezing for
  portions of the Permian Basin, Southeast New Mexico Plains, and
  higher terrain.

- The front yields high gap winds at Guadalupe Pass and Carlsbad
  Caverns National Park tonight into Sunday afternoon.

- Warming trend begins Tuesday and lasts into the end of the week,
  with no rain chances until next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 118 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Current observations show the cold front situated over far West
Texas extending into Deep South Texas. This will send much cooler
temperatures today and Monday as cold air filters into the region.
Strong to breezy winds are expected tonight through this
afternoon as a low-level jet will be prominent during this
timeframe. Latest guidance has these winds not as strong and
decreasing quicker than originally forecasted due to the faster
progression of the cold front. A High Wind Warning is still in
effect over the Guadalupes including Carlsbad Caverns. Given
latest trends, the High Wind Warning will expire earlier than
previous issuance (now expiring at 2 PM MST/3 PM CST). High
temperatures today are forecast to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s
for most locations.

Tonight, a surface high pressure system builds in the Central
Plains allowing clear skies and light easterly to southeasterly
winds to occur. These conditions will drive Monday morning low
temperatures to be in the low to mid 30s with a few spots in the
higher terrain and northern Permian Basin being in the upper 20s.
A Freeze Watch still remains in effect for the same areas upon
issuance. Be sure to protect any tender plants and bring pets
indoors!

Monday, the aforementioned high pressure moves east of the
forecast area shifting winds from the southwest. As a result,
slightly warmer temperatures are forecast with highs reaching the
low to upper 60s for most. Surface lee troughing begins to develop
out west creating breezy winds across southeast New Mexico and
the northern Permian Basin. A warmer weather pattern is in store
after Monday as upper- level ridging builds back near the region.
See the long-term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 118 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A warming trend continues to be indicated after the colder than
average temperatures late this weekend and early week. However,
lack of forcing for ascent and dew point temperatures remaining
below 45F for much of the week and largely in the 20s and 30s F
means dry weather also persists until at least the end of the
week. By Monday night, winds become less easterly/northeasterly as
the cold front would have long cleared the area and high pressure
developed over and to the east of the area. This setup renews
transport of warmer air from northern MX into the area and keeping
lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s F range, apart from lower 30s F
over highest elevations. Tuesday, highs at least 10 to 15 degrees
warmer than Monday are forecast, translating to mid 70s to lower
80s F, upper 60s to lower 70s F for higher elevations, and mid to
upper 80s F over Big Bend. This will be aided by breezy southerly
winds as a result of surface high pressure developing to the east
of the area with return flow and surface pressures falling as lee
troughing struggles to re- establish over SE NM. While some
guidance indicates gusty winds up to 35 to 40 mph for the
Guadalupes, high wind criteria is not expected at this time and no
wind advisories nor watches have been issued as of now. Lows
Tuesday night fall into the lower to mid 40s F, and amidst breezy
southwesterly downsloping winds, upper 40s to lower 50s F Rio
Grande basins and northeast foothills of Davis Mountains and Lower
Trans Pecos. Wednesday, lee troughing begins to re-establish
following winds briefly shifting to northerly with a weak cold
front/east-west oriented trough passing south through parts of the
area. Continued mostly sunny skies and winds veering back to
southerly allow highs to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s F,
lower to mid 70s F higher elevations, and mid 80s to lower 90s F
Rio Grande basins into Terrell County, similar to but a few
degrees warmer than Wednesday as ridging in the upper pattern
holds steady. Overnight lows will not fall much lower than
Wednesday as well, giving way to still warmer highs Thursday
mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s F, mid to upper 70s F higher
elevations, and mid 80s to lower 90s F Big Bend.

As stronger south/southwest winds maintaining transport of warmer
air from northern MX develop ahead of a storm system over the
Pacific SW and Desert SW approaching the area, lows Thursday night
in the upper 40s to mid 50s F, mid to upper 40s F usual cooler
spots of higher elevations, basins of Culberson County, and Upper
Trans Pecos into SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin can all
be expected. Highs Friday end up close to Thursday as clouds will
not be quick to increase and the dry continental airmass is not
easily dislodged. However, by Friday night, low/non zero rain
chances over westernmost higher terrain into western Eddy County
return in association with increased lift and moisture of this
storm system. The increased moisture/slightly higher dew point
temperatures inhibiting overnight cooling will in turn keep lows
Friday night similar to if not a few degrees warmer than Thursday
night. Saturday, a Pacific cold front is progged to develop
southeast across central into SE NM after rapidly developing east
from the Pacific Coast. This will result in cooler temperatures
and south/southwest winds shifting to more west/northwest.
However, this far out, timing of any frontal passages remain
uncertain. In spite of the returning non zero rain chances, higher
PoPs and rainfall amounts remain farther north and west of the
area with best lift, moisture and instability, with only a few
hundredths of an inch currently indicated over western parts of
the area. So unfortunately, we still expect no relief from ongoing
drought even as rain chances return.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 909 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

VFR/CAVU conditions will prevail next 24 hours. A cold front,
gusty at times, will move through the region overnight. Winds
will go light Sunday, then veer somewhat Sunday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               61  33  63  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 62  34  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   69  39  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            64  37  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           54  36  58  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    60  31  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    58  27  61  33 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     61  34  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   61  35  62  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     62  34  65  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for
     Andrews-Borden-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Reagan-
     Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for Eddy
     County Plains-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99