826
FXUS64 KMAF 211745
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1145 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1141 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Rain chances return Saturday and Sunday. Areas west of
  Midland/Odessa see PoPs of 10-40% and to the east 40-60%.

- A strong cold front brings near to below average temperatures
  to the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 136 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Cooler temperatures settle in behind an upper-level low tracking
northeast through the Great Plains. Highs Friday warm into the mid
60s to mid 70s across the region. With the departing upper trough,
surface high pressure develops over the central Plains, sending
another cold front into our area Friday night. Temperatures Friday
night cool into the mid 30s to mid 40s. Saturday, the front slows
down and becomes stalled within the southern portions of our region.
Low (10-20%) rain chances accompany the stalled front over the Lower
Trans Pecos Saturday afternoon. Saturday`s highs again rise into the
mid 60s to mid 70s. Flow aloft transitions from zonal to
southwesterly ahead of another upper low approaching off the coast
of Baja California. More details on this system`s impacts in the
long term discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 136 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A large upper low moves in from the Pacific late Saturday night and
gradually moves into the Desert Southwest. Moisture pools across
central and west Texas as low level southeast flow develops on
Sunday. The proximity of the low and the increased moisture will
lead to better rain chances Saturday night through Sunday. The best
chances will be across the eastern Permian Basin and tapering off to
the west. By Monday, the upper low moves into the Great Plains and
begins to move to the northeast. A cold front is ushered into the
region by late Tuesday and temperatures tumble below normal with
many areas in the 30s and highs on Wednesday struggling to reach 60F
in most locations.

This frontal passage will be dry. Beyond the rain chances this
weekend, the long term forecast remains dry. Though Thanksgiving is
a week away, the ensembles are beginning to show what looks to be
like a near normal late November day for West Texas and southeast
New Mexico. Highs in the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions will remain prevalent through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  41  69  50 /   0   0   0  50
Carlsbad                 69  38  67  50 /   0   0   0  40
Dryden                   78  51  74  58 /   0   0  10  40
Fort Stockton            73  45  73  56 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass           57  41  59  47 /   0   0   0  30
Hobbs                    66  36  67  47 /   0   0   0  40
Marfa                    66  36  70  44 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     69  42  70  53 /   0   0   0  40
Odessa                   69  42  70  53 /   0   0   0  40
Wink                     69  39  70  53 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...21