062
FXUS64 KMAF 161127
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
627 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

- There is a low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
  mainly west of the Pecos River this afternoon/evening.

- Temperatures remain above normal the remainder of the week.

- A cold front late Friday into Saturday will cool temperatures
  this weekend, with temperatures falling near normal Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Our weather pattern begins to change today as an upper-level trough
over the western CONUS drifts into the Great Plains. As a result,
lee troughing develops a frontal system. A shortwave embedded within
the upper trough transverses over New Mexico this afternoon before
ejecting northeastward. Upslope flow and lift from this disturbance
brings low (10-20%) rain chances to the western Permian Basin, SE
NM, and the higher elevations west of the Pecos River this
afternoon/ evening. Elsewhere, conditions remain dry, with slightly
breezy winds out of the south and southeast. Highs today warm into
the 80s for most, while those near and along the river valleys top
out in the 90s. Tonight, lows dip into the 50s/60s. Friday, a
Pacific front swings our winds out of the west and southwest.
Afternoon temperatures again reach into the 80s and 90s. However, a
cold front looks to drop in later this weekend. More details on this
and its impacts in the log term discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

After the passage of a Pacific front on Friday, a cold front moves
through late Saturday. For now, temperatures look to stay in the mid
to upper 80s for most, but if the front moves into the area faster,
temperatures could stall and decrease late in the afternoon. Lows
dip into the 50s for most with 40s in the higher elevations. Little
moisture will be present with the passage of this front, so rain is
not expected.

A roller coaster of temperatures is expected to begin the new week.
Near normal temperatures prevail for Sunday before shooting back
into the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday. Another front will make its
way through the region late Monday into Tuesday morning and bring
temperatures back towards normal for mid October. Highs should be in
the upper 70s to low 80s with low in the 50s. The second cold front
and the airmass it is slated to bring with it, keep temperatures
around normal heading into the middle of next week. Long range
ensemble guidance continues to show a mostly dry pattern as
significant moisture continues to elude West Texas and southeast New
Mexico.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions prevail. Winds are expected to become breezy out of
the southeast late this morning and into the early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               87  62  89  63 /   0  10   0  10
Carlsbad                 88  58  85  55 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   89  62  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            90  63  89  62 /  10  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           78  57  74  54 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    84  57  85  55 /  20  20   0   0
Marfa                    82  53  82  52 /  20  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     86  63  88  63 /  10  10   0  10
Odessa                   85  63  87  63 /  10  10   0  10
Wink                     89  61  88  57 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...95