


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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062 FXUS64 KMAF 161127 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 627 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - There is a low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly west of the Pecos River this afternoon/evening. - Temperatures remain above normal the remainder of the week. - A cold front late Friday into Saturday will cool temperatures this weekend, with temperatures falling near normal Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Our weather pattern begins to change today as an upper-level trough over the western CONUS drifts into the Great Plains. As a result, lee troughing develops a frontal system. A shortwave embedded within the upper trough transverses over New Mexico this afternoon before ejecting northeastward. Upslope flow and lift from this disturbance brings low (10-20%) rain chances to the western Permian Basin, SE NM, and the higher elevations west of the Pecos River this afternoon/ evening. Elsewhere, conditions remain dry, with slightly breezy winds out of the south and southeast. Highs today warm into the 80s for most, while those near and along the river valleys top out in the 90s. Tonight, lows dip into the 50s/60s. Friday, a Pacific front swings our winds out of the west and southwest. Afternoon temperatures again reach into the 80s and 90s. However, a cold front looks to drop in later this weekend. More details on this and its impacts in the log term discussion. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 204 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 After the passage of a Pacific front on Friday, a cold front moves through late Saturday. For now, temperatures look to stay in the mid to upper 80s for most, but if the front moves into the area faster, temperatures could stall and decrease late in the afternoon. Lows dip into the 50s for most with 40s in the higher elevations. Little moisture will be present with the passage of this front, so rain is not expected. A roller coaster of temperatures is expected to begin the new week. Near normal temperatures prevail for Sunday before shooting back into the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday. Another front will make its way through the region late Monday into Tuesday morning and bring temperatures back towards normal for mid October. Highs should be in the upper 70s to low 80s with low in the 50s. The second cold front and the airmass it is slated to bring with it, keep temperatures around normal heading into the middle of next week. Long range ensemble guidance continues to show a mostly dry pattern as significant moisture continues to elude West Texas and southeast New Mexico. -Stickney && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions prevail. Winds are expected to become breezy out of the southeast late this morning and into the early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 87 62 89 63 / 0 10 0 10 Carlsbad 88 58 85 55 / 10 10 0 0 Dryden 89 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 90 63 89 62 / 10 20 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 78 57 74 54 / 10 10 0 0 Hobbs 84 57 85 55 / 20 20 0 0 Marfa 82 53 82 52 / 20 20 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 86 63 88 63 / 10 10 0 10 Odessa 85 63 87 63 / 10 10 0 10 Wink 89 61 88 57 / 20 20 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...95