955
FXUS64 KMAF 210517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1117 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1114 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Strong winds over the Guadalupe Mountains through this evening.

- Rain chances are ending. Cooler temperatures and drier weather
  returns Friday, then another round of moderate to high (40% to
  65%) shower/storm chances this weekend.

- Drier weather with occasional breezy winds over higher terrain each
  afternoon late weekend into early next week. A strong cold
  front midweek brings near to below average temperatures to the
  area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 102 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Current radar imagery shows light to moderate rain showers across
the southern Permian Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos, along with
a line of showers and thunderstorms over far west Texas.
Additional development of showers and storms are forecast
beginning this afternoon across portions of southeast New Mexico
and west Texas. High resolution guidance has this activity moving
quickly to the east ahead of an approaching Pacific front. The
severe weather threat remains very low due to limited instability.
PWATs remain very high (exceeding the 90th percentile) where
heavy rainfall is expected, especially with the stronger storms.
The flash flood threat remains low given how fast storms will
move, however, if multiple rounds of heavy rainfall train over
similar areas, then flash flooding may occur. Strong (40 mph
sustained winds and near 60 mph gusts) west winds are anticipated
to develop behind the Pacific front over the Guadalupe Mountains
this afternoon lasting through tonight. These winds will make
travel conditions difficult for high profile vehicles especially
near Guadalupe Pass. High temperatures today are expected to reach
the mid 60s to mid 70s for many locations. The peak of these
temperatures were likely seen for many spots earlier this morning,
thanks to the extended cloud cover and precipitation expected
throughout today.

Tonight, the Pacific front moves east of the region, pushing the
rain and storms out of the area. Lows are forecast to span from
mid 30s to mid 40s as cooler and drier air behind the front
entrains over the region. This will set up a more seasonable
weather day across west Texas and southeast New Mexico on Friday
as highs are forecast to be in the low 60s to low 70s. Friday
night into Saturday morning, another upper low moves across
southern California into the Baja California region which will
establish more chances of rain later in the weekend. See the long-
term discussion for more details!

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 102 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Beginning on Saturday, an upper storm system over the Pacific and
Desert SW develops east, driving a Pacific cold front and
accompanying focusing of moisture and forcing for ascent east as
well. Low (20% to 30%) rain probabilities over the Concho Valley
into southeast Permian Basin Saturday morning expand northwest and
increase to moderate to high (40% to 65%) by late Saturday
evening. Widespread cloud cover keeps highs a few degrees cooler
compared to Saturday, but maintaining the general 50s F higher
elevations, 60s and 70s F elsewhere setup. Persistent easterly
upslope winds lead to dew point temperatures increasing into the
50s and lower 60s F east of western higher terrain by Saturday
night, inhibiting efficient overnight cooling and resulting in
lows only falling into the 40s and 50s F for most. Rain chances
taper off from west to east Sunday afternoon, and the storm
system`s departure induces breezy westerly downsloping winds that
develop, promoting a drying trend for locations east of the
mountains. Amounts by the time rain chances have decreased back to
near zero are still uncertain this far out. Highs Sunday a few
degrees warmer than Saturday are forecast as adiabatic warming
from downsloping winds offsets CAA behind the Pacific cold front.
Lows Sunday night drop back into the 30s and 40s F on
west/northwest winds and dew point temperatures decreasing back
into the 30s and 40s F east of western higher terrain.

In the wake of the weekend storm system, warmer and drier
conditions prevail early next week under southwest flow before
cooler weather again returns to the area by midweek. Monday highs
similar to Sunday apart from 80s F over the Big Bend and lows
again falling into the 30s and 40s F give way to similar highs
Tuesday as ridging holds. Troughing over the central CONUS rapidly
develops a strong cold front over the northern Intermountain
West/Rockies, which quickly progresses into the Southern Great
Plains. Tuesday night lows approach freezing over western higher
terrain and parts of northern Lea County into Permian Basin as
south/west winds shift to north/northeast. The strong cold front
brings a colder air mass to the area by Wednesday, with highs
struggling to rise above 60s F higher elevations and SE NM plains
into most of Permian Basin, lower to mid 60s F, and 70s F limited
to southern Rio Grande basins and Terrell County. By Wednesday
night, lows fall near to below freezing for Lower Trans Pecos,
Davis Mountains and surrounding foothills, basins of Culberson
County, and northern SE NM plains into northern Permian Basin,
with lows remaining chilly but above freezing on northeast slopes
and farther east/south over the Upper Trans Pecos and Permian
Basin and in the upper 30s to mid 40s F elsewhere. By
Thanksgiving, temperatures moderate some back into the 60s and 70s
F for much of the area as timing of cold front has trended to an
earlier passage on Wednesday. Uncertainty remains on how the
upper air pattern and temperatures develop into the Thanksgiving
holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

VFR conditions prevail and winds generally become light
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72  44  71  41 /  50  20   0   0
Carlsbad                 69  42  69  38 /  60   0   0   0
Dryden                   79  50  78  51 /  70  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            79  46  73  45 /  30  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           58  39  57  42 /  70   0   0   0
Hobbs                    68  39  67  37 /  50   0   0   0
Marfa                    68  33  67  37 /  30   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     73  45  69  43 /  60  10   0   0
Odessa                   72  44  68  43 /  60  10   0   0
Wink                     72  41  69  39 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99