215
FXUS64 KMAF 281551
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1051 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1047 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

- Above normal temperatures, increased westerly winds, very low
  relative humidity, and ongoing extreme fire danger will result
  in elevated to critical fire weather conditions across portions
  of our region through the weekend and again Tuesday and
  Wednesday of next week.

- Strong westerly winds will be possible at times in the
  Guadalupe and Delaware mountains through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Water Vapor imagery and Nighttime Microphysics shows dry air
entraining into clouds this morning behind the shortwave trough that
brought some precipitation to Brewster and Terrell counties. This
dry air has begun eroding cloud thickness and raised cloud bases
across the area as LCLs rise. Unfortunately, this means the end of
a real shot at precipitation in the short term for places that
didn`t receive any the past 24 to 48 hours. Despite decreasing cloud
thickness, the morning commute looks to be a mild one, with
temperatures in the 50s for most (40s at higher elevations).

Increasing heights behind the aforementioned shortwave trough will
promote subsidence and clearing skies Friday. This will also bump
Friday`s afternoon highs back up into the 80s, with 90s along the
Rio Grande. Winds become southwesterly to westerly early Saturday
morning as another trough approaches the region, bringing with it
drier air, warmer temperatures, and breezy conditions (breezier in
the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains). Model guidance show 50 to 60
kt (~58 to 69 mph) winds at the 500 mb level during/near maximum
daytime heating, allowing for mixing to transport momentum down
towards the surface. For this reason, sustained winds of 20 to 25
mph (30 to 35 mph in the Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains) are forecast
over the northern half of the CWA. High temperatures on Saturday are
expected to be in the mid to upper 80s at many locations. Highs in
the 90s can be expected in the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and
Presidio Valley areas. Portions of Scurry and Mitchell Counties may
also see some readings top out in the low 90s on Saturday as well.

-Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

A very dry westerly flow pattern aloft will remain prevalent across
west Texas and southeast New Mexico through the latter part of
the weekend and into the first part of next week. A surface trough
of low pressure is forecast to extend across southeast New Mexico
and into the Permian Basin on Sunday in advance of a cold front
that will be pushing into the Texas panhandle. Low level thermal
ridging along the surface trough axis will keep temperatures
several degrees above normal across our forecast area on Sunday
afternoon, with highs ranging in the upper 70s to mid 80s over
much of our region, with some locations along the Rio Grande and
Lower Trans Pecos even reaching into the lower to mid 90s.
Westerly winds will become breezy across locations along and west
of the Pecos River again on Sunday, with the typically stronger
winds once again impacting the Guadalupe/Delaware mountains, where
wind speeds will once again border on high wind thresholds. Winds
should otherwise diminish into the evening hours. The aforementioned
cold front is forecast to push into the Permian Basin and southeast
New Mexico late Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds will
shift northerly to northeasterly behind this boundary, but should
quickly become southeasterly by Monday afternoon as the surface
ridge axis shifts to the east of our region. High temperatures on
Monday should trend slightly cooler in the 70s over southeast New
Mexico and the Permian Basin behind the front, while readings in
the 80s are anticipated over much of the Trans Pecos and Big Bend.
A few locations along the Rio Grande look to reach into the lower
to mid 90s.

Dry conditions should persist Tuesday into Wednesday underneath
mainly zonal flow aloft. Low level thermal ridging may become
quite pronounced over our forecast area on Tuesday along another
developing surface trough of low pressure. This would allow for
high temperatures to trend much warmer in the mid 80s to around 90
degrees over much of our forecast area, with a few locations
along the Rio Grande/Big Bend warming into the 90s to around 100
degrees. Above normal temperatures will likely persist over the
area Wednesday into Thursday. Overnight lows remain mild in the
40s and 50s. The next upper level trough should deepen over the
western U.S. by the latter part of the week. Upper level flow
should transition more southwesterly over our area late next week,
but an overall lack of moisture means dry conditions currently
look to persist into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Return flow will
continue today. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field
by or shortly after issuance time, w/bases 6-9 kft AGL. Overnight
and Saturday morning, surface winds will begin veering to
southwest w/the approach of an upper-level trough. Winds should
veer to west, increase, and become gusty by the end of the
forecast period.  A few high clouds are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  90  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 56  82  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   57  92  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            58  90  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           54  72  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    51  81  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    50  79  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     57  87  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   57  85  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     53  87  52  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Andrews-Borden-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...44