779
FXUS64 KMAF 281939
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
139 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Strong cold front to bring gap winds to the Guadalupe Mountains
  and much below normal temperatures along with a first freeze to
  many Sunday morning.

- Monday and Tuesday morning temperatures remain at or below
  freezing for many.

- Brief warmup midweek before another cold front moves through by
  the latter part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 139 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Breezy southeasterly to southerly winds are ongoing this afternoon
across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos thanks to a
developing surface low on the leeside of the Rockies. These
strengthened low-level winds are bringing moisture up into our area,
resulting in widespread cloud cover over the eastern half of the
area. A few showers and weak thunderstorms managed to develop this
morning as well, mainly from southeastern Brewster County up to the
southern Permian Basin. These isolated to widely scattered
showers/thunderstorms will shift east of our area later this
afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s and low 60s may be anticipated for
much of the Permian Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos due to thick cloud
cover. Meanwhile, the western half of our area (where skies are
generally clearer) tops out in the upper 60s and low 70s. Cloud
cover/increased moisture also keeps lows warmer for the eastern half
of the area tonight (upper 40s and low 50s), while the western half
bottoms out in the low-to-mid 40s. Guidance continues to indicate
fog development tonight through Saturday morning over the eastern
Basin and Lower Trans-Pecos thanks to the enhanced low-level
moisture.

A strong front arrives at our northern counties late in the day
tomorrow and sweeps through the rest of the region Saturday night.
Ahead of this front, compressional warming allows temperatures to
get into the upper 60s and low 70s. Gusty northeasterly winds
accompany the front, and the High Wind Watch has been maintained for
the Guadalupe Mountains for strong gap winds. By Sunday morning,
many locations in the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos are expected to
experience their first freeze of the season thanks to strong cold
air advection behind the front. As a result, a Freeze Watch has been
issued for many zones that have yet to experience a freeze this
season, excluding Central Brewster and Terrell County, along with all
zones along the Rio Grande. That being said, its looking like freeze
products will be needed for Central Brewster and Terrell by Monday
morning.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 139 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Temperatures behind the cold front drop dramatically, with afternoon
highs only in the 40s for most Sunday. Winds will also remain quite
breezy, particularly during the morning hours before tapering off
throughout the day. Another shortwave trough moves across the
Southern Plains Monday, bringing another cold front along with it.
This will allow many other locations to freeze who haven`t received
their first freeze so far this season, prompting additional Freeze
products for Monday and Tuesday mornings. Confidence in temperatures
dropping to 32 degrees or lower are high (60-90%) across the Permian
Basin, Trans Pecos, and southeast New Mexico. With that said, lows
in the low-to-mid 20s on these mornings are forecasted, with mid-to-
upper 30s reaching all of the way into portions of Brewster and
Presidio Counties. Tuesday morning currently looks to be the coldest
this season.

Temperatures finally begin to warm back up closer to normal (63 F at
Midland International Air and Space Port) Tuesday and above normal
Wednesday as quasi-zonal flow aloft returns and surface winds
briefly become southwesterly to westerly, providing a downslope
component of the wind. However, ensemble guidance indicates the
potential for another cold front later in the week (probably
Wednesday night), which would lower temperatures once again. It is
worth noting that changes to the forecast this far out will likely
be made as next week approaches. Stay tuned!

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR expected for most sites this afternoon, with the exception of
MAF, who has been MVFR (and occasionally IFR) most of the morning.
Guidance indicates VFR conditions may return to MAF briefly this
afternoon before CIGs quickly deteriorate to IFR again tonight. Fog
is also possible at MAF tonight, as well as HOB (confidence was
lower there, however, so VFR conditions were maintained in the TAF).
Southerly/southeasterly winds remain breezy this afternoon,
especially at HOB, FST, and MAF (where gusts from 25-30 kts, up to
35 kts, are expected to continue). Winds gradually decline
overnight, becoming more southwesterly by tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               53  73  29  44 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 44  73  30  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   53  78  37  50 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            51  76  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           45  63  35  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    42  71  25  45 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    37  69  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     51  74  32  44 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   51  73  32  44 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     43  74  31  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
     Crane-Davis Mountains Foothills-Ector-Loving-Midland-Pecos-
     Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13