440
FXUS64 KMAF 091714
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1114 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1102 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

- Above-normal temperatures are expected into next week, despite
  weak cold fronts moving through the region.

- No precipitation will occur throughout West Texas and Southeast
  New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 130 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

The Short Term remains quiet. Highs today warm relative to yesterday
as breezy southwesterly to westerly winds develop and we remain
under northwesterly to quasi-zonal flow aloft. Temperatures top out
in the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s areawide. For references, these
highs are about 8-12 degrees above seasonal norms. Meanwhile, lows
tonight dip down into the 40s for most (30s in the typical cool
spots). By Wednesday morning, a front arrives, yielding gusty
northerly to northeasterly winds through the day. That being said,
this front`s impact on highs will be somewhat limited, as it only
knocks temperatures down 4-7 degrees relative to today`s. Skies
remain clear through the period, and rain chances are nil.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 130 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

We start the Long Term period off with temperatures well-above
normal as winds veer southwesterly to westerly and weak ridging
aloft sets in. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the low-to-mid
70s for most on Thursday. What has changed since yesterday is the
cold front that is expected to move into our northern counties by
Friday looks to be weaker and become more diffuse. As such, Friday
afternoon highs only drop a couple degrees for some (as opposed to
60s). Another change is that the NBM is now running on the higher
end of guidance (75th percentile) for Saturday as well. Given the
latest guidance and cluster analysis, this makes sense as models are
depicting higher heights in the data and the cold front is not
expected to be as strong. However, this may change as there is still
a lot of spread amongst the ensembles.

There are some indications that a stronger cold front may move
through the area by Saturday night, giving rise to the possibility
that temperatures may drop below normal. By the start of next week,
models indicate southerly return flow and ridging overhead, bringing
temperatures back up once again. As always, we will continue to
monitor trends in the data and make changes to the forecast as
needed. The extended forecast remains on track with respect to
remaining dry.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Breezy
westerly to southwesterly winds are in store across most
terminals early this afternoon lasting through the early evening
hours. There is medium (40-60%) confidence in sustained winds up
to 15 kts along with occasional wind gusts up to 20-25 kts
occurring this afternoon, especially across MAF, HOB, and PEQ
terminals.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  42  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72  42  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   72  45  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            75  46  67  40 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           60  41  57  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    69  42  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    67  34  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     69  43  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   69  44  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     72  39  65  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...11