958
FXUS64 KMAF 301925
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
125 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

- The coolest day this season so far is ongoing today, with
  afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 30s across the Permian Basin
  and Lower Trans-Pecos and 40s for most other locations.

- Most locations across the northern half of the CWA (and higher
  elevations) can still expect to see overnight lows at or below
  freezing tonight and tomorrow night.

- Warming trend through midweek before another front knocks
  Thursday`s temperatures down well below normal again.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 119 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Both Midland and Odessa bottomed out at 32 degrees early this
morning, making it the first freeze this season for these cities.
Cloud cover behind the strong cold front that passed through
yesterday evening will prohibit effective daytime heating today,
yielding highs in the mid-to-upper 30s across the Permian Basin
and Lower Trans-Pecos, with low-to-mid 40s elsewhere (except
upper 40s to mid 50s for most in the Presidio Valley and Big
Bend). Tonight, cold air advection will be cut off as surface
winds veer back to return flow. Despite cloud cover and
southeasterly winds, most spots across the northern half of the
CWA (generally north of I-20) should drop to or below freezing
tonight, with many seeing lows in the 20s. By mid-morning on
Monday, much of the cloud clover should clear out from west to
east. This, coupled with southerly to westerly winds under zonal
flow aloft allows for afternoon highs to climb back up closer to
normal (only a few degrees below). However, by mid-to-late
afternoon, winds will begin shifting to northwesterly and then to
northerly as a (albeit) weaker cold front pushes its way through
the area. This, coupled with clear skies and relatively light
winds promotes effective radiational cooling across the northern
half of the forecast area. As such, most locations are once again
expected to see lows below freezing Monday night. Much of the
Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico can even see lows bottoming
out in the 20s, making it the coldest night this period.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 119 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Rollercoaster temperatures continue into the Long Term period.
Despite the weak front Monday night, temperatures Tuesday still
rebound back into the 60s across most of the area as winds quickly
become southerly again. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the
forecast with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s forecast across the
region. Nevertheless, a front that evening/overnight once again
sends highs into the 40s and low 50s Thursday (upper 50s and 60s in
far southern zones). For reference, these temperatures will be
nearly 10-20 degrees below normal. A nearby shortwave will also
encourage low (10-40%) cold rain chances Thursday into Friday
morning across the area. Trends in how these rain chances evolve
will be closely monitored, as well as the timing and location of the
best chances (there is still a good deal of disagreement among
ensemble members, and some members keep rain just east of our area).
In any case, rainfall should generally be light where rain does
occur. At this time, ensemble guidance indicates only a 30-50%
chance of most locations receiving greater than 0.1 inches. The cold
air behind the front looks to be short-lived. By Friday and going
forth into the weekend, temperatures once again warm into the upper
50s and low-to-mid 60s (closer to/just above normal) before another
front arrives late in the weekend.

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals, with brief periods of MVFR
possible. However, cigs will be hovering just above MVFR (035-
050kft) throughout the day today (with cirrus moving overhead) and
isn`t expected to significantly lift until 10-15Z Monday morning.
Easterly (southeasterly at CNM) winds under 10kts are generally
expected until 10-15Z Monday morning as well, where they shift to
southerly and remain under 10kts.

Greening

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               32  58  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 28  62  30  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   38  65  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            34  67  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           33  58  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    25  60  25  61 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    30  66  29  64 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     32  60  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   32  60  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     30  62  29  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...55