588
FXUS62 KMHX 011144
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
644 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is pushing across the area and high pressure will
briefly build in from the north today. A strong low pressure
system will move across the Carolina coast Tuesday. High
pressure then rebuilds into the area from the north through
midweek before another low pressure system impacts the region
late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1 AM Monday...

Key Messages...

 - A cold front will move offshore by sunrise, continuing
   scattered light showers across the area

 - Cooler temps today with highs around 10 degrees below normal

A cold front is approaching ENC and light showers are ongoing across
much of the CWA. Winds have decoupled ahead of the front, and this
has allowed patchy fog to develop across central and southern zones.
Light rain will continue over the next few hours and dissipate from
west to east with the front expected to push offshore by sunrise.
Lows will bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and mid 40s
to low 50s along the coast. Winds will be breezy out of the north
today and much cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front
as high pressure builds in from the north, keeping highs about 15-20
degrees cooler today compared to yesterday. Northwest zones will max
out in the upper 40s with the rest of the area in the low 50s. Cloud
cover will dissipate behind the front but will build back in later
this after/evening as a low to our south moves north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 1 AM Monday...

Key Messages...

 - Increasing rain chances as a low lifts towards the Carolinas

A broad upper trough will dig across the Mississippi River
Valley tonight and a deepening surface low off the southeast
coast will move north towards the Carolinas. PoPs will increase
from south to north after midnight as the low approaches. A few
rumbles of thunder are possible early tomorrow morning across
Onslow and Carteret Counties (15-25%), but chances will be
greater over the southern coastal waters (25-35%). Rainfall may
be moderate to heavy at times across these areas, especially
within thunderstorms. Lows will range from the upper 30s across
northwestern zones to mid 40s to low 50s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1 AM Monday...

Key Messages

 - A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday bringing
   the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and minor coastal
   flooding

 - High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal
   temperatures Wednesday and Thursday

 - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region
   late in the week.

The aforementioned low will quickly lift along the Carolina
coast Tuesday morning and push out to sea by the
afternoon/early evening. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected
with this system, with QPF ranging from 1.5" inland to 2"+
along the coast. Given that the much of the CWA remains in a
moderate drought, this rain is much needed, and these antecedent
conditions will lessen the flood threat. However, minor nuisance
flooding remains a possibility where higher rain rates occur.

There`s potential for some supercells to develop, especially
along the coast and across the coastal waters where instability,
deep layer shear, and helicity will be greatest. The window for
severe activity could last from early Tuesday morning through
the afternoon with the potential for damaging wind gusts and an
isolated tornado and/or waterspout.

Coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, will be closely
monitored for potential oceanside and soundside flooding impacts
due to stronger winds, large waves, and a higher tide cycle. A
High Surf Advisory has been issued for the Outer Banks from Cape
Hatteras to Cape Lookout. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section
for more information.

PoPs will quickly drop off as the low pulls away from the coast,
leaving the area dry Tuesday night as high pressure builds back
in and strong CAA develops. Temps will then tank, ranging from
the upper 20s across the coastal plain to low 40s along the
Outer Banks. High pressure will keep things cool and dry through
Thursday with highs rebounding to the mid 50s.

PoPs will increase on Friday as a northern stream shortwave digs
into the Plains and a low lifts along the southeast coast. With
inland temps near freezing Friday morning, there`s potential for
a brief window of a rain/snow mix.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 AM Monday...Light rain slowly pushing offshore as
cold front moves through the region, with drier northerly winds
ushering in behind it. Currently, ahead and along the front we
have generally MVFR ceilings along OBX and the immediate Crystal
Coast with VFR for inland locales. Ceilings and visibilities
rapidly rise for areas currently in MVFR as dry air filters into
ENC before sunrise with ENC forecast to be back to VFR
conditions between 11-13z.

This afternoon, skies remain VFR with gusty northerly winds near
20 knots as high pressure builds in. We then pivot to
deteriorating conditions Tuesday morning as a low pressure
system approaches the region, dropping ceilings to MVFR/IFR
from south to north.

Outlook: Widespread sub- VFR conditions and low level wind shear
concerns likely Tuesday as a low pressure system is forecast to
lift along the coast. High pressure builds back into the area
Wednesday and Thursday with pred VFR conditions expected.
Another system Friday can bring drops to sub-VFR again.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1 AM Monday...

Key Messages...

 - Small Craft conditions expected through this afternoon

 - Gale Watch in effect for portions of the coastal waters for
   Tuesday due to a strong low pressure system that will track
   along the coast

 - Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into
   Wednesday

Latest obs show NW winds at 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Winds
will veer to the north over the next couple of hours as a cold
front passes the area and gusts will increase to 25-30 kt. Winds
will continue to veer to the NE by this afternoon and decrease
to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Seas are currently 2-3 ft, will
build to 4-6 ft by early this afternoon, and subside to 3-5 ft
by this evening. SCAs are in effect for all waters save for the
inland rivers, but a Marine Weather Statement is in effect for
the Neuse River for the possibility of 25-30 kt gusts at the
mouth through this morning. Tonight, a low will move up the
southeast coast and winds will veer to the SE and increase to
15-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt by sunrise (highest gusts
expected south of Cape Hatteras). Seas will respond by building
back to 5-6 ft across this same area.

Outlook: Conditions will continue to deteriorate Tuesday morning
as the low moves along the coast. Gales are expected across the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with winds starting as
SEerly at 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt and becoming SWerly
by the afternoon and increasing to 25-35 kt with gusts to 30-40
kt. Seas will respond by building to 7-13 ft by the afternoon.
Strong thunderstorms capable of producing waterspouts will be
possible Tuesday morning, especially across the coastal waters
south of Cape Hatteras.

High pressure builds in Wednesday and conditions will improve
through the day. The next chance for SCA conditions will be
Saturday as another low is forecast to move up the coast.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 640 AM Monday...A strong low pressure system moving
through North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and
seas. This comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2)
through Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune
structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor
coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening`s and early
Wednesday morning`s high tides. The forecast magnitude and
direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the
eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as a
result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity
are still unclear at this time. Though there is potential for
localized ocean overwash on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, esp
around high tide, which could impact portions of NC-12 Tue.

A High Surf Advisory has been issued Tuesday 10AM to 10 PM as
breaking waves of 6-10 ft could cause hazardous surf conditions
and localized beach erosion between Cape Hatteras and Cape
Lookout.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for NCZ196-
     204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135-
     150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154-156-158.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     AMZ152-154.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RJ
MARINE...OJC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX