101
FXUS62 KMHX 120810
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
410 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain stalled near the coastal plain today,
washing out over the Carolinas through the rest of the week. The
pattern will remain unsettled this weekend into early next week
with high pressure offshore, and frontal boundary stalled to
the south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 335 AM Thu...More typical summertime pattern taking hold
over the southeastern CONUS this morning as mid-level ridge
centered over the western Atlantic extends over the region,
buttressed against a closed low meandering over the southern
plains. At the surface, Bermuda high continues to steadily
expand over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic. Yesterday`s stalled
frontal boundary is becoming increasingly diffuse and is
forecast to dissipate completely today.

Ridging aloft will not be strong enough to shut out convection
this afternoon, but coverage will likely be more scattered than
yesterday. Lack of shear and appreciable forcing will keep a
more organized severe risk at bay, favoring more pulse-like
activity. However, with above-average PWATs in the 1.75-2" range
and very weak winds aloft (HREF forecast cloud layer winds are a
meager 5-10 kt), storms will be slow moving and may pose a
flooding threat in vulnerable areas. Most of our FA remains in
a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for today.

Highs climb to slightly above climo today, in the mid to upper
80s. A few 90s are probable especially across the coastal plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Thu...Convection quickly dies off after sunset
with loss of heating. Plenty of cirrus flooding over the region
ahead of the aforementioned plains low should help inhibit
renewed fog formation overnight, but reliable guidance does show
low stratus developing once again in very moist low-levels,
especially over the coastal plain. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will tick up again over the Atlantic but should remain
well away from coastal locales. Sultry lows, with temps
bottoming out in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 0400 Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Warm, Moist, Unsettled.

Bermuda High remains anchored in place with upper ridging
builds in across SECONUS bringing in broad subsidence aloft.
This weekend, two sluggish systems inch toward the FA, a cold
front sagging Sward from Great Lakes and a midlevel cutoff low
dragging Eward from TX. Moisture content remains ample in
onshore flow through the bottom half of the column keeping
mentionable PoPs in the forecast for the vast majority of the
period. Showers/TS in general summer diurnal pattern with best
chances associated with seabreeze in afternoon and evenings
becoming confined offshore nocturnally.

Early next week mid level trough approaches from the W with the
offshore high holding strong keeping moisture and instability
in place for more summer precip pattern forecasts. The
aforementioned front is forecast to remain N of the FA through
the weekend and early week, but waves traveling along the
boundary make details of the front`s exact location a little
tricky.

Once the midlevel shortwave has cleared the FA next week, the
effects of the offshore ridging will reach further W, leading to
more zonal flow aloft and a less dynamic pattern, at least
briefly.

General warming trend in Ts through the long term, MaxTs in mid
upper 80s maybe touching 90 and MinTs low 70s heating up to
MaxTs in the low to mid 90s with MinTs in mid 70s by late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Fri/...
As of 135 AM Thu...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this morning, but recent GOES satellite trends already showing
signs of some low stratus and fog beginning to develop across
the coastal plain. Expecting gradual deterioration to IFR from
07z onward through the rest of the pre-dawn hours - TAF
forecasts this morning closely follow experimental LAMP guidance
for timing.

VFR conditions return shortly after sunrise with weather
returning to a typical summer regime of scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze and migrating
inland. Convection coverage expected to be a bit less than
yesterday. Precipitation window closes after 00-01z.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 0400 Thursday...Unsettled conditions will prevail through
the period, keeping diurnal showers and tstorms in the forecast
each day. Expect periods of sub- VFR flight cats with gusty
winds under showers/storms in afternoon and evening with early
morning fog development possible for areas that see rain.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 350 AM Thu...Relatively benign boating conditions in place
over ENC waters with southwesterly flow of 19-15 kt on the
western periphery of Bermuda high pressure, and seas sitting at
around 3 feet across all offshore zones. This pattern is
expected to change little over the next 24 hours and conditions
will largely remain stagnant, apart from a slight backing and
increase of winds in the late afternoon and early evening as sea
breeze circulations take hold. No SCA conditions are expected in
the short term.


LONG TERM /Friday though Monday/...
As of 0400 Thursday...Generally SW 10-15kt through the long
term, strongest during peak heating, calming ever so slightly
overnight. Typical summer-time precip pattern:
offshore showers early AM, clearing afternoons, nocturnal
showers and storms. Winds slightly stronger weekend, SWerly
15-20kt offshore.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...MS/CEB
MARINE...MS/CEB