005
FXUS62 KMHX 091843
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
243 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front will approach the area this evening, pushing
offshore overnight into Monday with high pressure building in
behind it to start the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Hot conditions will continue for the rest of
the afternoon as temps climb into the mid 90s across inland ENC,
and remain in the upper 80s to around 90 along the coast. Heat
indices will be generally near the actual temp with "low"
dewpoints continuing inland. Mostly sunny skies will give way to
increasing clouds later this afternoon as shortwave energy moves
in from western NC ahead of the front.

As the cold front and approaching upper level shortwave
intersect near the NC/VA border late this afternoon, some shower
and thunderstorm development is expected, and based on current
guidance this activity should remain north and west of the
forecast area until around 6-7 pm. Thereafter increasing
coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms (30-50%) is
expected early tonight, with the best coverage likely across
the SW coastal plain and then the southern coast (50-60%)
overnight as a MCS-like complex forms to our west and then moves
across the southern coast. Ample shear and good upper level
support would normally point towards the potential for severe
weather with this convection, however a lack of low level
moisture and warm 925 mb temps will greatly inhibit instability
development, so confidence is low on how organized any
convective cells can get this evening and early tonight.

Rain chances will taper early tomorrow morning as the cold
front moves offshore but some lingering showers are expected,
especially along the coast. With clouds and a breeze remaining
overnight, temps will be muggy and mild and remain mostly in the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Though the cold front will be to our south
tomorrow morning, additional shortwave energy rounding the
longwave trough will likely bring another complex of showers
and isolated thunderstorms to the area tomorrow morning. There
is some uncertainty with how far south this complex will track,
so highest confidence in rain will be along the coast (30-40%).
Extensive morning cloud cover and lowering low level thicknesses
will likely lead to below normal temps, with highs only reaching
the upper 70s to perhaps mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...An upper trough will bring seasonable temps
and occasional showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. High pressure
builds in Wednesday and Thursday bringing drier conditions and
a warming trend. An upper trough pushes across the Mid-Atlantic
late in the week but uncertainty remains with how much Gulf
moisture the system will be able to tap into.

Monday Night through Tuesday night...A positively tilted upper
trough will dig across the Eastern CONUS Tuesday with embedded
shortwave energy moving trough the flow aloft providing
opportunities for additional showers and storms. Temps will be
low to mid 80s Tuesday. In addition, a much drier airmass will
build in with dewpoints dropping in to the mid 50s across the
coastal plain and low to mid 60s along the coast making for
comfortable temps.

Wednesday through Sunday...The upper trough axis pushes
offshore Wednesday with sfc high pressure building in and NW
downslope mid level flow bringing drier countdowns across the
region. Precip chances will be lower but cannot rule out
isolated to widely scattered showers and storms, mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours along the sea breeze. A northern
stream shortwave pushes across the Mid-West and into the Mid-
Atlantic late in the week while and area of low pressure is
progged to develop in the Gulf of Mexico. There is significant
uncertainty whether the northern stream system will be able to
tap into the Gulf moisture and advect it across the Southeast
coast or whether upper ridging over the western Atlantic will
shunt the moisture to our south and west. A warming trend is
expected late week with highs in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday
and lower 90s Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday Afternoon/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Mostly VFR conditions are expected across ENC
through tomorrow, though there will be a threat for occasional
sub-VFR conditions to develop within heavy showers and
convection, which will move into the area this evening through
most of tonight. May be able to fine tune the arrival of
convection with later forecasts, but due to current low
confidence of timing and coverage, kept a general mention of
showers in the TAF. Otherwise expect ceilings to develop this
evening and range between 4000-6000 ft through most of tonight.
Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible tomorrow morning, but will be more focused along the
coast. Still there will be a threat for some convectively driven
reductions to MVFR or lower, which will need to monitored
overnight.

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term but brief periods of sub-VFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms with greatest chance Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tomorrow/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Marginal Small Craft conditions will develop
this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. SCAs continue
for the coastal waters as well as eastern sounds.

Winds this afternoon will continue to increase and become SW
20-25 kts through this evening. Thereafter, a cold front will
push into the northern waters and Albemarle Sound and turn winds
to the N at around 10 kts behind it. The front will push south
through the rest of the coastal waters overnight with winds
strengthening slightly to 10-15 kts. Light northerly flow will
continue tomorrow morning, but eventually onshore flow will
develop in the afternoon with winds becoming E to S at 5-10
kts. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through tomorrow, but could
briefly bump up to 3-5 ft late this evening during the peak of
the winds.

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Sub SCA conditions expected through the
long term with variable winds around 15 kt or less and seas
around 2-3 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135-
     152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150-
     231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/SGK
MARINE...SK/SGK