853
FXUS62 KMLB 171900
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
200 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Patchy fog potential persists on most mornings this week. It may
  become locally dense, especially in rural areas.

- Other than a low chance for showers along the Treasure Coast on
  Tuesday and Wednesday, a long stretch of dry weather is
  forecast.

- Temperatures remain generally above normal over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Current-Tonight...Weak surface front will slide south across the
area today gradually losing its identity during the next 24 hrs as
it dissipates. Winds will become northerly, gradually shifting to
onshore along the coast this afternoon with speeds up to around
10 mph. Mainly dry conditions expected. Highs today in the U70s
along the coast and near 80F to L80s into the interior. May have
to watch, again, for some patchy (locally dense) fog formation
late overnight into early Tue morning. Winds become light/variable
this evening and overnight. Mins will realize the U50s to around
60F across the interior and L60s along the coast.

Modified Previous Extended Forecast Discussion.

Tue-Wed...Early morning fog may plague portions of ECFL the next
couple of mornings due to light winds, clear nights, and just enough
low-level moisture; with highest chances across the I-4 corridor.
Surface high pressure will build southeastward from the mid Atlc
states thru mid-week. With an uptick in moisture there may be some
onshore-moving light rain chances (~20%) through early Wed across
the Treasure Coast and adjacent Atlc waters, but most of ECFL will
remain dry. Expect a mix of clouds/sun and seasonably warm afternoon
temps. Highs each day range from the U70s to L80s. Lows should turn
a bit milder, with M-U50s near and north of Orlando to the L-M60s at
the coast.

Thu-Next Mon...With deep-layer high pressure over the state late
this week and into the weekend, more quiet and warm weather is
forecast once any patchy morning fog burns off. Unseasonably warm
highs reach the U70s to M80s with lows in the U50s to U60s (coast).
A cluster of guidance supports the next cold frontal passage late
Sun or next Mon, but moisture values look unfavorable for notable
rain chances. In fact, the EPS and GEFS members give the majority of
Central Florida only a 10% chance (or less) of 1/2" of rain through
Thanksgiving.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

A weak front will settle across the local waters during the day
losing its identity over the next 24 hours. Modest moisture will
permit for some light rain chances into early Wed. High pressure
builds southeast from the mid Atlc states to off of the FL east
coast. A light onshore flow will persist thru Thu. Seas generally
2-3 ft and occasionally 4 ft in the Gulf Stream. Boating
conditions will remain generally favorable.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1244 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions prevail at ECFL terminals through around 08Z
tonight. Conditions are once again favorable for fog reducing VIS
to MVFR between 08Z and 13Z due residual moisture draped across
Central Florida from the weak front, mainly from KMCO/KISM to
KTIX south. Highest chances (around 40% based on HREF guidance)
at KMLB-KFPR, where there is also a low (30% or less) chance for
VIS reductions to IFR. HREF is also showing low (around 30%)
chance of LIFR-VLIFR at KMLB-KFPR, likely due to recent HRRR runs
calling for zero visibility but this guidance has been excessively
over-enthusiastic for days, so considering this model
contamination for now, especially since LAMP remains VFR. Given
these chances continue for several hours, calling for prevailing
MVFR at KMLB- KFPR, and TEMPO MVFR conditions at KMCO/KISM, KTIX,
and KSUA for this package. VFR conditions expected to resume by
14Z at the latest. Light northerly winds become variable at times
overnight, shifting northeast and remaining light Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  78  60  80 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  60  82  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  62  80  64  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  61  81  64  81 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  57  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  58  81  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  60  81  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  60  81  63  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Haley