317
FXUS63 KMPX 230854
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
254 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today, with record high potential across much of the area.

- Scattered rain showers arrive Monday, with a good chance for
  accumulating snow north of I-94 Tuesday afternoon into early
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A few high clouds are drifting across the area this morning with the
majority seeing clear skies. There is a sizable temperature
difference between eastern MN/western WI and western MN, with the
former having temperatures still in the upper 30s to even low 40s,
meanwhile the latter has some spots in the mid 20s. Today will
potentially be a record setting day with a chance to break numerous
high temperature records; record at MSP of 55 with a forecast in the
mid 50s, STC record of 53 with mid 50s forecast, and EAU unlikely to
set a new record with a previous record of 59 compared to a forecast
in the low 50s. Clear skies will allow for efficient mixing of
warmer 925-850mb temperatures to the surface, which has been
consistent within guidance over the last few days. The efficient
mixing will also increase winds just a bit out of the south, leading
to low level WAA on top of already warm temperatures. It will be a
great day to get outside and finish your last few fall projects, as
active weather arrives Monday and by the time it leaves temperatures
will have plummeted down into the 20s and 30s for highs, marking
this as what may be our last 50 degree day for the next few months.
Depending on how the winter goes, we may not see 50 degrees again
until March or even April.

The trend over the last 24-36 hours of model runs has been an
overall weaker signal as far as rain goes on Monday with showers
favoring southern Minnesota ahead of an incoming upper level trough.
The upper level occlusion weakens which keeps the forcing as mainly
a weak shortwave this far north with a secondary trough arriving
from the west-northwest by midday Tuesday. This second wave is much
more potent by the time it reaches our area, coinciding with rapidly
cooling lower-mid level temperatures as cold air is pulled down
alongside the system. This has led to a general increase in the
potential for snow, especially north of I-94 with lower chances
farther south. The blended ensemble guidance is showing remarkably
high probability for 24hr snowfall amounts greater than 3 inches for
portions of central and north-central Minnesota, and even some
decent chances for 5-6 inches (all of this assuming a constant 10:1
ratio). The upper level trough bringing the forcing for ascent will
slide across the region Tuesday night, continuing to produce snow
showers as it does with 850mb temperature anomalies of -5 to -10C
allowing for an ideal dendritic growth zone residence time. The main
thing to keep an eye on as it pertains to snow amounts will be how
the system ends up behaving on Monday, as the quicker it moves out
the quicker the second system can arrive and the lower temperatures
aloft cool by midday Tuesday. Until we have enough confidence to
talk actual snow totals, expect to see the greatest chances for snow
north of I-94 from Tuesday evening through midday Wednesday, with
lighter and more scattered snow showers from the Twin Cities and
south.

Behind the departing midweek system, the Thanksgiving holiday will
see surface high pressure sliding southeast from central Canada
continuing to bring cold air in the lower mid levels, all but
ensuring plummeting temperatures. Those that see more snow on
Tuesday into Wednesday have the best chance for crashing
temperatures, as the coldest temperatures often follow a fresh
snowfall. Model guidance tends to keep a warm bias so we will likely
have to blend in some lower percentiles to drop temperatures enough
for this time window, until the guidance catches up to the snowpack
on the ground. This cold stretch continues into next weekend and
beyond, with extended range guidance showing continued cold through
the first week of December. You may have heard some rumblings about
a potential large snow producing system next weekend, however for
now there is low confidence as the spread within guidance is
significant. It would be wise to keep checking the forecast for post-
Thanksgiving travel until we have a better handle on the conditions
moving forward, as there is high confidence in continued cold but
low confidence in regards to other sensible weather for that
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 942 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

No changes needed for the TAFs, with a deck of mid-level clouds
still expected to move across central MN Sunday morning and
western WI during the late morning into the afternoon. Winds are
already turning to the west and will become southerly Sunday.

KMSP...debated adding a group at 10z Monday to account for the
IFR/LIFR stratus and fog possibility the HRRR has been showing
coming up late Sunday night. However, this stratus deck is
almost 30 hours out, so decided to hold off on that potential to
see how this stratus deck, which is currently in the OK/KS/MO/AR
region, evolves on Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...Chc MVFR/IFR cigs. PM -SHRA. Wind SE 5kts.
TUE...MVFR, -RA changing to -SN in evening. Chc IFR with -SN.
      Wind bcmg WNW 10-15G25kts.
WED...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind NW 10-20G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...MPG