142
FXUS63 KMPX 201812
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1212 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of drizzle & fog through this morning.

- Below normal temperatures arrive Wednesday & persist into
  early December.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Another gloomy night & morning is on tap as areas of drizzle &
fog persist until a cold front brings drier air into the region
this afternoon. Temperatures will remain well-above freezing so
the only impacts will be lower visibilities below 1 mile at
times, mainly across western Wisconsin this morning. The clouds
are expected to scatter out later this afternoon & evening after
the cold front moves trough, allowing for a cooler night into
Friday morning where temperature could fall well into the 20s.

There`s little cold air to speak of behind the "cold" front, so
we`re anticipating very pleasant weather for the weekend & into
early next week as building ridging over the Upper Midwest leads
to above-normal temperatures & dry conditions. Highs will be in
the upper 40s to low 50s with lows generally around freezing,
along with generally sunny skies.

Ensemble guidance continues to show high confidence in a cold
snap arriving Wednesday, with well-belwo normal temperatures
expected to continue into at least early December. Guidance
remain spread on the potential for precipitation on Wednesday
when the strong cold front is expected to pass through the
region. Generally, we remain split between strong forcing from a
cutoff low expected to mainly impact the US/Canada border & a
shortwave passing to our south the the mid-Mississippi river
valley. Deterministic guidance remains spread on the amount of
phasing, or lack or phasing, with these two systems but for now
it looks like that we will end up in a relative precipitation
lull more likely than not. Timing of the upper level forcing
with these systems will also play a role in our precipitation
 types, with temperatures very likely remaining warm enough for
rain if our forcing arrives ahead of the cold front Tuesday
into Wednesday, but with higher chances for snow if we`re able
to see some forcing after the cold front arrives Wednesday into
Thanksgiving day. Still probably too early to have any definite
forecast on Thanksgiving travel weather, but at least for now
it looks like things will remain mostly dry around here.

As mentioned earlier, ensemble & deterministic guidance shows a
very strong signal for bewlow-normal temperatures for the end
of the month & through at least early December. This is being
driven by Sudden Stratospheric Warming event (name sounds a lot
cooler than it really is), which results in a weaker polar
vortex & allows for more frequent intrusions of Arctic air into
the Upper Midwest & northern US as a whole. These events are
fairly typical once a Winter or so, but are quite rare this
early in the season during November. So how cold might
temperatures get? Ultimately that will depend on what (if any?)
snow cover we`ll have in place both here & off to our north &
northwest over southern Canada, & that remains paltry at the
moment. For example, ensemble guidance currently shows the
potential for 850 mb anomalies of 15-20 F below normal when this
initial intrusion of cold air looks to peak around the turn of
the month, while surface temperature anomalies at the same time
are only 5-10 degrees below normal because of the lower than
normal (if any) snowpack. So yes, it will be cold in time for
Thanksgiving, but we`ll still have to wait to see just how cold
for what looks to be our start to winter.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1151 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Widespread IFR ceilings were beginning to improve to MVFR from
west to east this morning, and that trend will continue this
afternoon. Did hold onto the MVFR ceilings a couple hours longer
into the evening, but then expect clearing skies as dry air
moves in. Winds will be northwest throughout.

KMSP...MVFR conditions expected for most of the afternoon and
into the evening from low stratus. Winds will be northwest
throughout.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW to SW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind S 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JRB