848
FXUS63 KMPX 071121
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
521 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy and cooler today with some isolated sprinkles.

- Our first taste of winter-like weather arrives in the form of
  a Clipper system early Saturday. Up to a half inch of slushy
  snow accumulations are possible for western and southern
  Minnesota.

- Much colder air settles in for the second half of the weekend
  before warming back to near/above normal for the remainder of
  the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

The first of two cold fronts has cleared our western Wisconsin
counties early this morning. Temperatures across western and
central Minnesota have fallen quickly into the low to mid 30s
under clear skies and northwesterly winds. As you head east,
temperatures are still in the low to mid 40s into western
Wisconsin, but should have enough time to fall into the 30s
before daybreak. These clear skies won`t last for long today as
a second, stronger cold front sends a stratus deck down from the
northwest. Highs today will be some 5-10 degrees cooler than
yesterday with the cloud cover and CAA behind these two fronts.
There is a non-zero chance for a few sprinkles associated with
this front, but the dry air in the mid levels will likely win
out.

Attention then turns to our Saturday Clipper system. Yet another
shortwave will drop down into the Dakotas by early tomorrow morning,
bringing a chance of some rain and/or snow to western and southern
Minnesota. The track of this system has remained fairly consistent
over the past couple of days now and places the axis of heaviest
precip across eastern South Dakota into northern Iowa. Areas along I-
90 and the western Minnesota River Valley may see up to a half inch
of slushy accumulation during the morning hours, with a chance for
some non-accumulating rain/snow showers as far north as the Twin
Cities. Behind this system, a deep upper low will drop southward
into the Great Lakes region. A few more light snow flurries could
fall out in our far eastern Wisconsin counties, but generally Sunday
looks to be dry. Breezy northwest winds will reinforce the cold
temperatures for Sunday, with wind gusts of 20-25 MPH leading to
wind chills in the teens and single digits.

We`ll start the week with highs just above freezing, but will
quickly warm back to mid November normals (and maybe a few degrees
above normal) by Tuesday. The rest of the period looks dry, with
only a weak shortwave or two passing to our north. Temperatures will
make a run at the mid 50s by the end of the week as ridging builds
across the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

The cold front is working its way across the region, with winds
now out of the west across Minnesota and southwest for portions
of western Wisconsin. Low-level clouds across the northern half
of Minnesota are sagging southward at this hour and will lead
to MVFR cigs for most of the day. A return to high end MVFR/low
VFR may arrive towards the end of the day, but have opted to
keep most terminals on the more pessimistic side of guidance.
Northwest winds around 10-15kts with some higher gusts will continue
until late afternoon before turning northward and calming to
around 5kts. Snow/rain chances just outside of this TAF period
at MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU, with a PROB30 for -SN and visibility
reductions possible at RWF Saturday morning.

KMSP...MVFR cigs arrive by late morning/early afternoon and
stick around through the rest of the evening. Gusty N/NW winds
this afternoon will calm after the FROPA this evening, shifting
to light and NE for Saturday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, chc MVFR. Chc -SN. Wind NE to NW 5-15kts
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15g25kts.
MON...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...PV